3 Adjustments New England Patriots Must Make During Bye Week
Fans around Foxborough have seen this movie before. For the fifth consecutive season, the New England Patriots cruised to an AFC East title and a first-round bye, putting them in prime position to capture that elusive fourth Lombardi Trophy. With home-field advantage, the Pats look like clear AFC favorites at the moment.
Of course, those previous four seasons ended in heartbreak. Since 2009, New England has dropped just four regular-season games at Gillette Stadium, but they've also lost three home postseason games in that span. Indeed, regardless of location, the formula for knocking the Pats out has been the same: Fluster Tom Brady with a four-man rush and convert third downs to win the time of possession.
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There have been other ancillary factors—the Pats suffered a rash of in-game injuries in the 2012 AFC Championship loss to Baltimore, while the Giants benefited from fumble luck in Super Bowl XLVI—but those have been out of New England's control. While the Pats may not be able to prepare for such luck-based factors, there are warning signs from the final month of the regular season that they can remedy.
Taking a look at the final month of the season, when the Patriots went 3-1 but appeared shaky at times, three issues stand out prominently. If New England doesn't fix these before the postseason competition ramps up, they could find themselves disappointed for the 10th consecutive winter.
Pass Protection
The offensive line was the Patriots' Achilles' heel during their dreadful first month, as the turnstile along the line contributed to a lack of continuity that paralyzed the offense as a whole. However, once New England settled on a starting five of (L-R) Nate Solder, Dan Connolly, Bryan Stork, Ryan Wendell and Sebastian Vollmer, everything appeared to calm down.
But issues have again cropped up over the past month. After ranking as one of the league's best lines in pass protection from Weeks 5-13 based on Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking efficiency (subscription required), the Pats have returned to levels even worse than their September performance:
| Weeks 1-4 | 71.5 % | 31st |
| Weeks 5-13 | 82.3 % | 8th |
| Weeks 14-17 | 76.7 % | 25th |
In fairness, Connolly has missed two of those games, and the final contest was simply an exhibition. Still, even if you want to exclude New England's Week 17 backup-laden game, the Patriots' 78.0 percent PBE from Weeks 14-16 ranked just 20th in the league in that span.
It's a little distressing to think that just a single missing link could create catastrophe along the line, but Connolly's absence really seemed to hurt the line's communication. When the Miami Dolphins blitzed in Week 15, Brady completed seven of nine passes for 86 yards and a touchdown, good for a 143.5 quarterback rating. The Fins didn't send many complicated rushes, but when they did, the Pats responded well:
Conversely, against the New York Jets next week, the Pats were a total mess with Josh Kline at left guard. Rex Ryan always flummoxed the Pats offense more consistently than anyone else during his Gotham tenure, but his swan song against New England was one of his best masterpieces when considering the chasm in talent between the two squads.
New York only sent eight blitzes, instead using misdirection on standard four-man rushes to disrupt the timing of New England's passing game, as well as scrambling the O-line. Too many times, Brady found himself under siege before he had even completed his dropback, as the Pats often found themselves conceding odd-man rush situations:
This isn't entirely on the line, as Julian Edelman's absence in the Jets game robbed Brady of his most reliable safety valve. But while missing Edelman was always going to hamper the passing game, that should not have an effect on the line's ability to communicate protection assignments, a problem that was also prevalent among the backups in Week 17. Based on the unsteady performances from backups like Kline, Cameron Fleming and Marcus Cannon, it's clear that the Pats will experience a steep drop-off if any O-line starter goes down.
With the passing game emerging as the dominant offensive method in recent years, protecting the quarterback has become the lifeblood of every offense. The flip side is that the inverse of pass protection, rushing the passer, can be the key towards catalyzing a championship run.
Four-Man Rush
Unfortunately, the Patriots' recent problems in this area are equally perturbing, even if the impact hasn't been as clearly visible. New England's pass-rushing numbers for the season aren't great—they ranked 19th in both traditional sack percentage and Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate—but that in itself isn't fatal, especially when considering that top rusher Chandler Jones missed six games.
However, it is slightly concerning that most of New England's pressure comes off blitzes. Linebackers Dont'a Hightower and Jamie Collins have taken big steps forward this season, including as pass-rushers, but their positional responsibilities dictate that it is impossible for them to rush every down.
Recent history suggests that a defense must either be extremely proficient at sacking the quarterback or creating turnovers to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 champions, only the 2012 Baltimore Ravens have ranked outside the top 10 in both categories yet still went on to raise the Lombardi Trophy.
| 2013 Seahawks | 7.51 % (6th) | 2.4 (1st) |
| 2012 Ravens | 5.73 % (21st) | 1.7 (11th) |
| 2011 Giants | 7.51 % (5th) | 1.9 (5th) |
| 2010 Packers | 7.97 % (4th) | 2.1 (3rd) |
| 2009 Saints | 4.88 % (27th) | 2.5 (1st) |
| 2008 Steelers | 8.56 % (2nd) | 1.9 (4th) |
| 2007 Giants | 8.22 % (1st) | 1.6 (22nd) |
| 2006 Colts | 5.86 % (22nd) | 1.9 (8th) |
| 2005 Steelers | 8.06 % (4th) | 1.9 (13th) |
| 2004 Patriots | 7.36 % (10th) | 2.5 (1st) |
New England finished 16th in takeaways per game this year, though turnovers are a statistically fluky category to bet on long term. On the other hand, creating pressure is largely a personnel-related issue that the Pats have shown the ability to scheme around at times. Their A-gap blitzes with Hightower and Collins will likely be the bread-and-butter pressure concept the Pats turn to in a bind this postseason, but there are some changeups that have worked well in limited usage.
One possibility could be increasing Akeem Ayers' role in sub-packages. Since Chandler Jones' Week 15 return, Ayers has played just 29.9 percent of the defensive snaps, with many of those coming in the second half of the glorified preseason game in Week 17. However, when the defensive line starters played into the second half, the Pats unveiled an interesting stunt with Ayers looping three gaps over (right C gap to left B gap) to create a sack:
In addition, the threat of the A-gap blitz allows the Pats to dictate what an offense may do simply by showing the look. This was particularly prevalent against the San Diego Chargers back in Week 14, when Jamie Collins' career day flustered Philip Rivers.
In the first screenshot below, the Patriots had showed this exact look on a Collins sack that ended San Diego's first drive of the game. However, instead of sending six rushers, as they did the first time, check out how the Pats responded on a 3rd-and-short situation:
Rob Ninkovich did get immediate pressure, but with the weak-side crossing route taken away and the strong-side trips bottled up with safety coverage over the top, there was nothing for Rivers to do but tuck the ball down and run short of the markers. New England wasn't going to show its hand against a trio of middling AFC East quarterbacks the past three weeks, but when they face top-tier quarterbacks in the postseason, a return to this kind of creativity would be refreshing.
More Vereen?
If the Patriots can simply split the battles in the trenches, their superior talent at quarterback and along the perimeter gives them a huge edge over most teams. However, while no AFC team really has this capability, a squad with a deep back seven like the Seattle Seahawks or Green Bay Packers might be able to clamp down on New England's passing game in the Super Bowl by double-teaming Rob Gronkowski and putting a "lurker" safety down to take away Julian Edelman's inside-breaking core routes.
If this happens, Shane Vereen might need to dust off the cobwebs and become a primary centerpiece in this offense, as he was last year. Though he leads all Patriots running backs in playing time this year, having played 52.5 percent of the offensive snaps, Vereen has seen a considerable decline in per-play usage and productivity, particularly in the passing game:
| 2013 | 5.5 | 26 | 8.6 | 53.4 |
| 2014 | 6 | 24.4 | 4.8 | 27.9 |
The advanced metrics back up this decline as well. After ranking second among running backs with 2.13 yards per route run last season, Vereen ranks 28th this year, down to 1.17 YPRR. Some of that decline stems from Rob Gronkowski's season-long availability, as well as the Patriots' increased usage of two-tight end sets.
Still, the fourth-year back might be particularly useful against potential AFC opponents Denver and Indianapolis, as his two highest receiving yardage totals of the year came against the Broncos and the Colts. Neither Denver nor Indy has the speed at linebacker to keep up Vereen on screen, wheel or angle routes.
I won't spend as much space discussing Vereen; unlike the aforementioned two issues, this is more of a luxury adjustment that could enhance an already dangerous and versatile Patriots passing game. However, there are specific opponents in the later rounds where Vereen could suddenly become a necessary focal point of the New England offense.
Bottom Line
The Patriots' form over the past month will not be good enough to snap their nine-year drought without a championship. That statement shouldn't be as concerning as it sounds, for New England did win three of those games, while also mostly keeping their schemes vanilla over the final two weeks.
However, despite odds from Football Outsiders and Advanced Football Analytics portraying the Patriots as heavy Super Bowl favorites, there are certainly enough flaws that can prevent New England from getting over that conference championship hump. The Pats have a higher ceiling than any other AFC team, but the separation is not large enough to provide them any meaningful margin for error in the playoffs.
The good news is that these are all correctable issues. New England possesses the coaching staff and personnel capable of introducing some schematic wrinkles and correcting recent lapses in execution. The only question now is whether the Patriots can recapture and sustain the midseason form that made them the league's gold standard.
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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