Dallas Mavericks Are Rajon Rondo's Last Chance at NBA Superstardom
Practically three years removed from his latest NBA All-Star appearance, and more than two years detached from his last postseason expedition, Rajon Rondo finds himself on the Dallas Mavericks seeking superstar redemption one last time.
Rondo's fortunes turned in an instant upon being traded from the Boston Celtics to Dallas. In one fast-developing swoop, he went from the apparent cornerstone of a rebuilding franchise to the final prong of a title-tracking team.
Yet, while the circumstances under which Rondo plays have changed, his individual stakes remain the same.
Injuries, warring stat lines and, recently, makeshift cast members bilked Rondo of his superstar status, twisting a once-forgone conclusion into a debate the point guard himself has yet to settle—a matter that, for better or worse, superstar or not, will resolve itself in Dallas.
Rondo's Fall
It wasn't always this touch-and-go with Rondo. His superstar standing was a formality in 2012 during the playoffs.
Fans and pundits watched as Rondo quarterbacked a fourth-place Celtics squad to the Eastern Conference Finals. Playing on a team with three future—not to mention still-productive—Hall of Famers in Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, it was Rondo who took over for games at a time.
A 44-point, 10-assist effort against the Miami Heat, while coming in a loss, still reminds us of all he can do. A 15-point, 15-assist performance in that same series remains a typical, big-game Rondo stat line.
That, admittedly, is the last we've seen of superstar Rondo. Injuries limited him to under 40 appearances in each of the next two campaigns. Last season, when he returned "for good," it was to a transitioning Celtics team that had already bid farewell to its Hall of Fame-bound core.
By the start of 2014-15, Rondo was toting the burden of proof, trying to validate himself as a star and max-contract player—because, really, Rondo isn't a star outside of name recognition anymore.
Glimpses into the player of old were certainly prevalent throughout Rondo's last 22 appearances in Boston. There's something to be said about his ability to hand out 10.8 dimes a night and improve the field-goal percentage of (most) teammates, per NBA.com (subscription required), while playing within a rotation nearly devoid of proven offensive weapons.
Still, for every brief display of hope, there was evidence pulling Rondo in another, unflattering direction. The 40.5 percent shooting, the historically bad free-throw percentage, the 8.3 points per game on a team begging for a No. 1 option, the barely average player efficiency ratings, the unrelenting trade rumors—it all factored into Rondo's demise.
When he left, it was not as an undeniable building block the Celtics reluctantly parted ways with in exchange for a king's ransom; it was as a slipping star who had not made Boston's offense better since 2011-12:
This is no doubt an imperfect measurement. Everything from Rondo's health to surrounding talent could have impacted the data. But his years-long failure to lift the Celtics in a point guard's area of expertise isn't a ringing endorsement.
Nor is the price Boston placed upon his services. The combination of Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, low-end draft picks and a trade exception isn't a superstar-quality return, even if said star is preparing for free agency.
Rather, it's a sign of how far Rondo has fallen over these last few years.
The Dallas Difference
Playing in Dallas will be different. It's already different.
All potential excuses are gone. The Mavericks' starting lineup has best-in-the-league potential when healthy, and Rondo is now charging the NBA's second-best offense. If he is truly an elite player, he'll only strengthen their attack.
And despite what the roster implies, there is room for Rondo to be elite.
Dirk Nowitzki is a perennial All-Star, future Hall of Famer and point-piling machine. He's also the Mavericks' oldest player (36), and head coach Rick Carlisle hasn't been shy about capping his minutes.
Dallas' remaining three starters, meanwhile—Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons and Tyson Chandler—have combined for one All-Star appearance. Though the team's second unit ranks seventh in offensive efficiency, per HoopStats.com, the Mavericks are a shallow group as well, desperate for star power at the league's deepest position.
The defense—which ranks 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions—is also pleading for help not named Tyson Chandler. As Yahoo Sports' Eric Freeman wrote, Rondo answers that plea in theory:
"It's also true that Rondo gives the Mavericks something they didn't have before — a potential elite defender on the perimeter. In fact, this is where the pairing with Ellis becomes a clear improvement. Monta has always struggled to defend superior offensive players, but Rondo can guard the West's top guards — James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, et al. — better than most while allowing his backcourt mate to focus on his offense. Even if the Mavs' offense gets worse, they will still have a top outfit in that area while vastly improving their defense.
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Opponents are shooting 5.3 percentage points better when being defended by Rondo on the season, but he finds ways to force turnovers when playing man-to-man or policing passing lanes, and he functioned effectively inside Doc Rivers' elite defensive system for years.
Raw talent alone renders Rondo a potential two-way boon. That he's a ball-dominating point guard shooting well under 40 percent outside three feet for his career, playing within a passing-packed, jumper-happy offense, is undoubtedly concerning. But a superstar floor general would find a way to make it work.
“It never stops at this position,” Rondo said, via ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon. “That’s what you want as a point guard. You want the challenge. I look forward to every night playing against the best.”
So far, so good.
Five games is a spectacularly small sample size to work with, but the early returns on Rondo's stay in Dallas are encouraging. Although the team is only 3-2 since his arrival, the Mavericks have been markedly better with their new point guard on the floor:
Initial defensive returns have been particularly pleasant. Rondo is still allowing opponents to shoot north of 50 percent overall, but the Mavericks run the equivalent of a league-best defense with him in the game, relinquishing a staunch 95.8 points per 100 possessions.
This comes after 166 minutes of court time and facing one top-10 offense (Phoenix), mind you. It's still too early for far-flung observations, especially knowing Dallas' offense, while better with Rondo on the floor, has regressed overall.
"The Mavericks offense has been much less efficient with Rondo on the floor," explains Ian Levy for Nylon Calculus. "The biggest changes appear to be are in the distribution of mid-range shots and three-pointers from above the break. In addition the Mavericks have been shooting far worse on those above the break three-pointers."
Rondo himself, though, is humming along. He's averaging 13.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 1.8 steals in Dallas, is directing the offense with pace and hasn't shied away from creating and taking his own shots. And if his impact on defense remains this apparent, the Mavericks' changing—or rather, devolving—offensive model won't do much, if anything, to deter Rondo's attempted climb.
A Last Chance
Landing with the Mavericks has given Rondo one last shot at proving he's a max-contract star. Right now, he's not. He's an elite point guard by reputation more than current craft. He hasn't been fully healthy in years. He has been the starter for a top-10 offense just twice in his career (2007-08 and 2008-09).
He is still searching for superstar validation.
If there was ever a time for Rondo to evolve, to reclaim his superstar name, it's now, at 28 years old, in the prime of his career, on a contending, excuses-free Mavericks team that will be his ticket back to—or forever out of—superstardom.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Dec. 29, 2014.
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