5 Reasons for Optimism for the Detroit Lions' Super Bowl Hopes
The Detroit Lions are in the playoffs for just the second time in the last 15 years. Sunday's humbling 30-20 loss in Green Bay dropped the Lions to the No. 6 seed in the NFC and continued a rather dubious string of failing to win on the road against good teams.
"Matthew Stafford is now 3-31 against teams that finished with a winning record, including 0-17 on the road. #Lions
— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) December 29, 2014"
The franchise and its quarterback face long odds to make it past the likes of the Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers in the NFC playoffs. The folks at Odds Shark opened with Detroit as eight-point underdogs in Sunday's Wild Card Game against the Cowboys.
It sure seems preposterous to believe this Lions team can make it to the organization's first-ever Super Bowl. Yet there are a few reasons why tasting playoff success isn't so far-fetched. Really.
These Lions do have a chance to do what no other Detroit football team has done. It will not be easy, but here are five reasons why the Detroit Lions can get on a playoff roll and make it to the Super Bowl.
5. The Defense Is for Real
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Detroit's road to the playoffs was paved on defense. The Lions roared high up many defensive rankings:
| Avg. | Rank | |
| Yards Per Game | 300.9 | 2nd |
| Points Per Game | 17.6 | t-2nd |
| Yards Per Carry | 3.2 | 1st |
| Yards Per Completion | 9.7 | 3rd |
While the NFL has become more of an offensive-oriented league, defense still often rules the day in the postseason. Look no further than last year's champs, the Seattle Seahawks. They led the league in both yards per game and points per game en route to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Even without Ndamukong Suh in Dallas, as the NFL announced his one-game suspension Monday, Detroit's defense is talented enough to carry the team to a victory or two. Glover Quin, DeAndre Levy, Ezekiel Ansah and others will have to play phenomenal football and make impact plays. Fortunately, they've all proved capable of doing just that.
"#Lions safety Glover Quin named to Pro Bowl for first time. He leads @NFLonFOX with 7 INTs.
— Paula Pasche (@paulapasche) December 24, 2014"
"#Packer OG Josh Sitton: "We have to shut down 54. He's probably their best player up front." That's #Lions DeAndre Levy, not @NdamukongSuh
— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) December 27, 2014"
"Ansah is so good at the strip sack.
— Benjamin (@ben_deeznutz) October 12, 2014"
It will take better play than Detroit demonstrated in Green Bay, but this defense is capable of a deep playoff run.
4. Vulnerabilities of the Competition
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It's easy to focus on the Lions' shortcomings in light of the tough loss in Green Bay and uninspiring wins over the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. Yet every NFC playoff team has some real vulnerabilities the Lions can exploit.
Take Dallas as an example. Their travails in big games over the last 15 or so years are legendary. Right or wrong, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has such a reputation as a big-game choke artist that columns, including this one from Greg A. Bedard at The MMQB, are dedicated to breaking down his prominent failures.
The Cowboys are also quite an anomaly in terms of home-field advantage. They went 8-0 on the road but just 4-4 in what's affectionately known as Jerry World. Their offensive output drops by a full 10 points at home, from 34 to just 24 a game. Dallas also turns the ball over two times per game at home but just 1.1 on the road.
Bottom line? The Cowboys have a playoff drought nearly as long as Detroit's, and they're much easier to beat in Dallas.
Even the Seahawks, who the Lions would face should they beat the Cowboys, are not an invincible juggernaut. Seattle is the most penalized team in the league. It's also surprisingly poor at red-zone defense, where its 59.4 percent touchdown rate ranks 26th. As this piece from Eric Branch of SFGate.com opines, the Seahawks are also vulnerable to a good pass rush even with a fully healthy offensive line.
It's incumbent upon Jim Caldwell and his staff to find the exploitable weaknesses of each opponent and how to effectively attack those soft points.
3. Recent 6th-Seed Success
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Sure, it would be a lot better if Detroit were not the bottom seed in the NFC. Yet some recent six seeds have tasted playoff success.
In fact, just last season both No. 6 seeds came up victorious. The New Orleans Saints topped the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC, while the San Diego Chargers survived and advanced in Cincinnati in the AFC. Both played the No. 1 seeds tough the following week too, losing by just eight and seven points respectively.
While no six seeds advanced in 2012 or 2011 (the Lions were the NFC's that year), both came up victorious following the 2010 season.
That season is the poster child for the axiom "anyone in it can win it." The New York Jets advanced to the AFC Championship Game as the No. 6 seed, knocking off the Indianapolis Colts and No. 1-seeded New England Patriots on the road before falling 24-19 to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Green Bay repped the bottom seed even better. It mowed through Philadelphia, the Atlanta Falcons and Chicago to capture the NFC title. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers then sealed the deal by knocking off the Steelers to win Super Bowl XLV.
Other recent victorious six seeds include:
- 2009 Baltimore Ravens
- 2005 Washington Redskins
- 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers—won Super Bowl
- 2004 Minnesota Vikings
- 2003 Atlanta Falcons
- 1999 Miami Dolphins
No, it's not a lot of success. But there is enough of a track record to prove it can be done.
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2. Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate
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What else wins in the playoffs? Great playmakers. Fortunately Detroit has a dynamic receiving duo in Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate.
A recent piece from Nate Vandergrift at Rant Sports ranked Detroit's tandem as the fourth-best duo in the NFL. They both posted impressive 2014 seasons in their first year together in Detroit, even with Johnson missing four full games and parts of two others with injury.
| Catches | Yards | YPC | TD | |
| Johnson | 71 | 1077 | 15.2 | 8 |
| Tate | 99 | 1331 | 13.4 | 4 |
Tate is an underrated playmaker, a lethal weapon with the ball in his hands. He's fantastic after the catch.
"Most yards after catch among WRs: Golden Tate 709 Demaryius Thomas 672 Antonio Brown 615 Randall Cobb 603 Jordy Nelson 558 Julio Jones 552
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 29, 2014"
Both are capable of lining up all over the formation, be it the slot, split wide or motioning pre-snap. Johnson remains one of the best red-zone targets in the league and one of the most prolific receivers in recent times:
"RT @ttwentyman: That's the 16th 2+ TD game for Calvin Johnson in his career. #DETvsGB pic.twitter.com/A3pVNS6m3q
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 28, 2014"
If quarterback Matthew Stafford can feed them both consistently and find the proper matchup to attack, Detroit has the weapons to put up points in a hurry.
1. Lions Versus the World
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Take a gander at the national sports media broadcasts—or on social media—when they're talking about Detroit's playoff chances. Hearing the Mike & Mike show and The Dan Patrick Show on the radio Monday, it's a foregone conclusion Romo and the Cowboys will get medieval on Detroit.
The Detroit media isn't exactly optimistic either. Witness this blurb from MLive.com beat writer Kyle Meinke...
"The Cowboys have one of the finest offensive lines in the NFL, and the reigning rushing champion. The Lions have Caraun Reid and CJ Mosley.
— Kyle Meinke (@kmeinke) December 29, 2014"
...or this rather ominous tweet from the good folks at Pride of Detroit:
"#Cowboys have averaged around 41 points over their last four games. #Lions haven't even scored more than 35 points once all season.
— Pride Of Detroit (@PrideOfDetroit) December 29, 2014"
Even this site is guilty. Zach Kruse pulled no punches with his article entitled "Matthew Stafford, Lions' Struggles on the Road Spell Disaster for Playoff Hopes."
It's enough to make even the most ardent Detroit homers in the fanbase reconsider watching what is sure to be a devastating defeat in Dallas.
This can be a good thing for the Lions. The "nobody believes in us" mantra in the locker room is a very real, very powerful motivating force. Coach Caldwell saw it firsthand as the Ravens' offensive coordinator during their improbable Super Bowl run two years ago.
For the Lions, it's an easy sell that everyone truly is against them. Again, look at the national reaction to the Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola suspensions. A lot of people hate this team.
Good, good, let the hate flow through. Let it unify these Lions and inspire them to shock the world.
All stats are from Pro-Football-Reference.com. All rankings and figures are from Team Rankings.
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