Best Scenarios, Trade Packages and Free-Agent Landing Spots for Goran Dragic
The Phoenix Suns bought point guard insurance over the summer, and it's beginning to look like the cost may have been greater than they anticipated.
Goran Dragic can opt out of the final year of his deal after the season, which will allow him to enter an unrestricted free-agency market very much interested in the services of a star two-way combo guard because...well, there's always interest in a player like that.
Ken Berger of CBSSports.com reports: "Multiple teams already are inquiring as to what it would take to break up the Suns' three-guard rotation of Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas—with Dragic, a prospective free agent, garnering the most attention."
Isaiah Thomas came aboard at a time when the Suns weren't sure they'd be able to retain Eric Bledsoe. When they later managed to ink Bledsoe to an extension, they played up the glass-half-full angle, espousing the virtues of small ball, pace and three very good ball-handlers.
Lately, there have been signs Thomas, Bledsoe and Dragic can work together—as they did in amassing 57 points while beating the New York Knicks 99-90 on Dec. 20. But all three players have voiced concerns, with Dragic notably explaining the guards' struggles to mesh simply.
"Because there's only one ball and we're all point guards," Dragic said, per Paul Coro in a piece for USA Today. "That's an easy answer."
The hard question: What'll become of Dragic?
Houston Rockets via Trade
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Houston Rockets Get: Goran Dragic
Phoenix Suns Get: Terrence Jones, Jason Terry, 2015 first-round pick (via New Orleans Pelicans)
In his report, Berger singles out the Houston Rockets as a "team to watch" in the Dragic sweepstakes—if, in fact, we're already calling it that.
Houston knows what it is to love and lose the lefty combo guard. They traded for him partway through the 2010-11 campaign and started him at the point for the entire lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.
As Brett Pollakoff of ProBasketballTalk notes, Houston has done the do-over before:
"The Rockets haven't been afraid to correct player personnel mistakes they've made in the past. Trevor Ariza is back in Houston, on a more reasonable contract in a more appropriate role after his unsuccessful first stint there ended with him being traded out of town—so they're indeed a suitor to watch.
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The Suns, perhaps worried about losing Dragic for nothing in free agency, could do a lot worse than adding Jones, an athletic power forward who can stretch the floor. Terry's contract is essentially filler, but he could serve as a mentor to both Bledsoe and Thomas before his deal expires after this year.
The real prize is the first-rounder, which will be a lottery selection unless the Pelicans make an improbable climb up the playoff hierarchy out West.
This is a no-brainer for the Rockets. Dragic is an All-NBA performer who can defend, distribute, shoot and take pressure off James Harden. He's a massive all-around upgrade over Patrick Beverley. And if you're the Suns, it would be hard to turn down a lottery pick and a promising young 4 when the alternative—if Dragic simply walks away this summer—is a goose egg.
New York Knicks via Free Agency
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Big news, everyone: The New York Knicks are about to be flush with cash. That, more than anything, makes it possible to endure this nightmare of a 2014-15 season.
With Amar'e Stoudemire, Andrea Bargnani, Samuel Dalembert and Jason Smith coming off the books after the season, New York will trim a whopping $42 million off their current cap figure. If they're smart, they'll throw as much of that as it takes at Dragic.
Dragic would have to opt out of his deal after this season in order to sign with the Knicks or anyone else. But he's already indicated he'll test the waters and consider checking out the Knicks when he dips his toe into free agency, per Mitch Abramson of the New York Daily News:
"Oh yeah, definitely. You know Phil, he was a great coach. He won so many titles and he was coaching so many great players that of course it’s interesting and I would love working with him. Because probably he’s making all the moves — I’m not sure — but he knows what the team needs and what direction the team needs to go. In the past probably, he makes some decisions, who the Lakers bring in and the Chicago Bulls and (he)did an amazing job.
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Now, to be fair, Dragic was never going to scoff and say, "Forget the Knicks. They're garbage." Diplomatic comments are part of any impending free agent's arsenal—or at least they should be. Making sure more teams think they have a shot can help drive up the price.
The Knicks aren't attractive right now, wallowing 18 games back of the top spot in the East, tied with the Philadelphia 76ers for that distinction. But when those ugly salaries slough off, that will change.
Added bonus: If anyone is aching to head East, it's Dragic. After making the All-NBA Third Team and leading his squad to 48 wins last year, he sat at home during the playoffs. In the East, those 48 wins would have been good enough for home-court advantage in the first round of the postseason.
Los Angeles Lakers via Free Agency
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We have to throw the Los Angeles Lakers into the Dragic mix, if only because they're in desperate need of talent and always seem to wind up in the free-agent conversation when a big name is available.
A trade this year is virtually out of the question; L.A. doesn't have much to offer the Suns.
From a free-agency perspective, there should be some optimism regarding Dragic in Los Angeles.
Per a tweet from Newsday's Mike Gavin, Dragic spoke on the potentially scary possibility of playing with Kobe Bryant: ""I'm never intimidated. I don't believe that is the case."
You'd have to swirl the tea leaves around in a blender to go from that quote to the conclusion Dragic wants to play in Los Angeles, but he's at least outwardly confident in his ability to survive life with Kobe. That's a start.
If we pretend Bryant taking on a diminished role next year is an option (though nothing we've seen so far indicates it's a realistic one), Dragic would be an ideal lead guard to ease Kobe's transition off the ball. There aren't many backcourt players capable of guarding either position. There are even fewer who can dominate the ball or spot up with equal effectiveness.
Dragic does all those things, and he'd also bring a welcome efficiency boost to an offense that has watched Bryant eat up possessions with shots of comically low expected value.
Going from Kobe to Dragic, who shot over 50 percent from the floor and 40 percent from long distance last year, would be a welcome change.
Boston Celtics via Trade
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Boston Celtics Get: Goran Dragic, Tyler Ennis, 2015 second-round pick
Phoenix Suns Get: Marcus Smart, Jared Sullinger, Brandon Bass
A few caveats come with this potential deal.
First, the Suns would have to determine that Dragic is definitely a goner this summer. Otherwise, the promise of Smart, Sullinger's fit as a rebounder who can stretch the floor and Bass' expiring contract aren't a good enough return for a legitimate star.
As was the case with the Rockets trade, though, the calculus changes if Dragic plans to leave the Suns' crowded backcourt as a free agent.
Second, the Celtics would have to be certain Dragic would sign an extension with them. Smart and Sullinger are key, inexpensive pieces—the kind you don't give up for a mere shot to keep Dragic.
Smart essentially replaces Dragic in Phoenix's clogged-up guard rotation, but he does so at a much cheaper rate and without the gripe that he shouldn't be losing minutes to Bledsoe or Thomas. Make no mistake; Smart could become a serious player—especially on the defensive end. Just imagine what he and Bledsoe could do to opposing backcourt tandems with their strength and ball pressure.
Unlike Dragic, though, he's got some growing yet to do.
The Celtics are going to have to add salary and talent eventually, and it'll hurt to lose a player like Smart. But if they can get an assurance that Dragic will re-sign, the exchange is worth it. Ennis comes along as a downgrade—though still one with promise—to replace Smart.
Phoenix Suns via Extension
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The Suns shouldn't overthink this one.
If having three point guards on the roster is a problem, why not just cut ties with the least talented, least expensive member of the trio?
That's not a shot at Thomas; he's a fine player who could help a lot of teams that didn't already have two terrific options at his position. Thomas' contract extends for three years beyond this one, but he'll only make around $7 million per season. That makes him eminently movable.
It would be insane to let Thomas' presence cause Dragic's absence. It'd be like selling your BMW 5-series for pennies on the dollar because you've just got to make room in your garage for that Honda Accord. There are lots of spark-plug scorers out there like Thomas.
There aren't many do-it-all guards in their primes like Dragic.
Do the smart thing, Suns: Ship Thomas out, give Dragic a more lucrative offer than any other team can match this summer and revel in your Dragic-Bledsoe backcourt for another five years.
Dragic's best landing spot is the one he's already in.
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