6 NBA Teams That Must Avoid Midseason Trade Temptations
Presidents and general managers of talent-fowling NBA teams, gather 'round. It's high time y'all were made privy to a dirty little secret.
Contrary to popular and widely assumed beliefs, some of you are better off resisting the temptation to enter the trade market.
This doesn't hold true for all of you, of course. If Mr. Billy King can find a way to blow up the Brooklyn Nets, then by all means, blow that money pit up. If Rich Cho can enact the ultimate mulligan by unloading Lance Stephenson, do it.
And if Stan Van Gundy can find an unwitting team to trade for Josh Smith, then go right—oh, never mind. Bad example, per the Detroit Pistons themselves.
Other Association executives aren't in the same boat. Some might be overseeing middling, underachieving or bottom-feeding squads in clear need of upgrades. Some might even be charged with controlling a championship contender looking to add an extra punch or sidestep the exceedingly expensive, deeply dreaded luxury tax line.
For whatever reason, the appeal of significant change—as is in dynamic-disturbing; as in Sam Hinkie collecting another second-round pick in exchange for Robert Covington wouldn't qualify—is there. And for other reasons entirely—namely respective futures—the allure of immediate change must be warded off.
Sacramento Kings
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This is admittedly triggered by a single Sacramento Kings rumor.
According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the Kings are in talks to acquire All-Star point guard Deron Williams from the Brooklyn Nets for Jason Thompson, Derrick Williams and Darren Collison. Why exactly? Beats me.
Williams, as of now, is only an upgrade in name recognition over Collison, who replaced the departed Isaiah Thomas. Just look at the numbers either player is posting this season:
| Collison | 12.3 | 43.9 | 31.5 | 15.7 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 111 | 107 | 17.8 |
| Williams | 12.7 | 40.3 | 38.2 | 15.6 | 6.8 | 1.1 | 108 | 108 | 16.9 |
When the Kings canned head coach Mike Malone, they did so with the hopes of implementing a new high-octane offensive system, per Wojnarowski. The over-30 Williams isn't the man for that job. He's currently nursing a calf injury, his ankles have the structural stability of powdered milk and he hasn't piloted an offense that ranks better than 19th in pace since 2009-10, his last full season with the Utah Jazz.
There's little doubt the Kings will need to make a move at some point if they wish to remain competitive in the contender-chocked Western Conference, and neither Thompson nor (Derrick) Williams figures into their long-term plans.
But the incoming Williams would cost nearly four times as much annually as Collison through 2016-17, hamstringing the team financially. And though the Kings' regime isn't one to shirk risky gambits—see: Rudy Gay's arrival and Malone's departure—this isn't a name-netting gimmick that will transform what's already a 12th-place offense.
Trading for cap space and the subsequent free-agent flexibility it can create over the next two summers would make a world's worth more sense.
Golden State Warriors
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"Well duh, stupid," you might say, think or write in the comments section.
The Golden State Warriors rank ninth in offensive efficiency and first in defensive efficiency, own the league's best record and have emerged as the Western Conference's team to beat. Pulling the trigger on a roster-rattling trade would not only be insane, but it's not even tempting.
Except it might be.
David Lee has played all of seven minutes this season, and the Warriors are still winning like whoa. With him owed $15.5 million in 2015-16 and Golden State on the hook for nearly $79 million in payroll before re-signing third-year standout Draymond Green, Lee seems expendable.
Moving him may even feel necessary. His departure could help the Warriors evade the luxury tax line for 2015-16, leaving them will no excuses not to further invest in their roster the following summer, when the salary cap explodes.
But the injury-prone Andrew Bogut is sidelined with a knee injury, making Lee necessary insurance. He isn't the rim protector Bogut is—the Australian is second only to Dwight Howard in opponent field-goal percentage at the iron among qualified players—yet he'll replace the absent playmaking and upgrade the scoring upon return. And that return is coming soon.
"Assuming I wake up tomorrow feeling this way, I'm going to definitely go (Monday)," Lee said, per the Bay Area News Group's Jimmy Durkin. "I'm real excited about that, just excited to get back on the court. It's been way too long, and it's getting boring just watching."
Chemistry is a delicate element of any NBA team. Ask the Indiana Pacers of 2013-14 post-Danny Granger trade. Tinkering with a rolling unit like the Warriors—especially with Bogut's status forever fluid—remains an unnecessary risk.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Fifth place isn't what the Cleveland Cavaliers had in mind. They employ three megastars in LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving and figured to contend for the NBA's best record. That they're outside the top four within a baseborn Eastern Conference is, in many ways, cause for alarm.
Not to mention midseason upgrades.
While Cleveland ranks fourth in points scored per 100 possessions, its defense peaks at shaky. The Cavaliers are 22nd in points allowed per 100 possessions and second to last in rim protection. Deepening their talent pool via trade would seem to make sense.
Tempting though it may be, the Cavaliers must wait. General manager David Griffin already passed on the opportunity to acquire Corey Brewer from the Minnesota Timberwolves, preferring to land a big man, according to The Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto. Yet even if a paint-policing presence becomes available, the team should pass. For now.
Brendan Haywood's non-guaranteed salary balloons to $10.5 million in 2015-16. That means the Cavaliers possess prime salary-dumping real estate for any team looking to unload lengthier pacts. Partnering Haywood with Dion Waiters, a rumor-mill fixture these days, could net the Cavaliers someone substantial up front—perhaps a JaVale McGee or Larry Sanders.
Patience isn't the ideal course of action for a superteam ready to contend on paper, but it's not like alternative avenues are much better.
Marc Stein of ESPN.com had the Cavaliers pursuing Memphis Grizzlies backup big Kosta Koufos while using Waiters as primary bait. And if the best they can do for a No. 4 pick like Waiters is a career role player, it's smarter to postpone their talent search until this summer, where greater possibilities lie.
Los Angeles Lakers
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Mid-game smiles like those pictured above are seldom seen on the Los Angeles Lakers' sidelines. This version of the Purple and Gold is fielding a middling offense, a league-worst defense and on pace to win no more than 25 games.
Change now beckons.
If the Lakers are to wedge Kobe Bryant's title window back open, they'll need to add serious talent soon, hence their interest in trading for Rajon Rondo before he ended up with the Dallas Mavericks, per Stein. But not landing Rondo is actually a miniature blessing in disguise.
Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding explains:
"It would have been risky business for the Lakers to surrender that one first-round pick trade asset they have from taking on Jeremy Lin last summer based on the notion of Rondo being a building block.
Conversely, doing the pure rebuild and using that pick from the Rockets at what might be, say, No. 25 overall to get some kid who might be overly impressionable, immature or idiotic, is no dream come true.
The Lakers know that. They want guys with established name and game. Rondo certainly fits in that sense—but so do many of this summer's other free agents whose arrivals would be precluded by the Lakers giving Rondo their big bucks.
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Dealing for Rondo with the intent to re-sign him would have bilked the Lakers of impending financial flexibility. It would have been up to him, Bryant and another batch of also-rans to make headway in the powerhouse-packed West.
That's not a blueprint worth investing in. Rondo is a former All-Star who has yet to prove he can anchor a contender, and the 2014-15 crusade is proof enough that Bryant is human. The Lakers would have employed star power that existed more in theory than generated results.
Outfitted with a goulash of unimpressive assets—Steve Nash's and Jeremy Lin's expiring deals, the injured Julius Randle, Jordan Hill (who cannot be traded until Jan. 15), the Houston Rockets' 2015 first-rounder—a Rondo-esque splash is still above the Lakers' trade ceiling.
And if their mere involvement in Rondo's future can be colored ambitious, it's best for them to sit tight, conserve cap space and hope they nab more suitable building blocks—Marc Gasol, Kevin Durant, Goran Dragic, Joakim Noah, etc.—in each of the next two summers.
New Orleans Pelicans
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At this point, there is no bigger NBA injustice than the absence of Anthony Davis from the postseason.
Already on pace to shatter the league's single-season player efficiency record—he's registering a 33.4—Davis has single-handedly thrust the New Orleans Pelicans into win-now mode. They already expended a first-rounder to bring in Omer Asik this season one summer after investing in Tyreke Evans.
Such maneuvers have payed off only slightly. The Pelicans are clinging to the Western Conference's final playoff spot, with most fully aware that slot is the Oklahoma City Thunder's to lose. And with the threat of missing the playoffs again looming, New Orleans could exhibit a buy-now mindset once more.
Jared Dubin touched upon why for The Cauldron:
"With the players likely to opt out of the Collective Bargaining Agreement in 2017, it’s possible — though not overly likely — that Davis could be one of the first players to willingly play out under the qualifying offer in hopes of cashing in big in the first year of the new CBA. Teams are already preparing for Kevin Durant’s 2016 free agency two years in advance. Can you even imagine what will happen if they get a whiff that Davis might hit the market the following year?
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Fear of losing Davis can most definitely drive the Pelicans to make more moves. His immeasurable ceiling is (probably) why they've been so aggressive since his rookie season. But while there's a risk of him eventually leaving because of the expected cap boon and collective bargaining structure, the danger is minimal.
Players on rookie contracts typically re-sign with incumbent teams, even if their extensions are option-overloaded and shorter than normal. Love stayed in Minnesota. James stayed in Cleveland. Davis will most likely remain in New Orleans.
Forfeiting what little assets the team has—say, Ryan Anderson and a 2017 first-round draft pick—in favor of making midseason upgrades approaches pointless. The Pelicans need another star to legitimately contend in the West; they won't get that star now.
Asik comes off the books after this season, while Eric Gordon's and Anderson's contracts expire in time for the summer of 2016. Assuming the Pelicans don't go on another spending spree, they'll have the opportunity to run down free-agent stars in 2016 with Davis as their main selling point.
And what's more likely to get the Pelicans another star: Davis' climbing clout then or the team's nearly naked talent stable now?
Exactly.
New York Knicks
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Submitting to a lost season is always tough. But it's something the New York Knicks need to do.
Pacing themselves toward a franchise-worst 14 wins, all the Knicks have is the promise of cap space. Carmelo Anthony, Jose Calderon, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Cleanthony Early are the only players under guaranteed contracts beyond this season. Trading for an impact player—expiring contract or otherwise—only stands to increase their future salary commitments.
Lucky for the Knicks, they're basically safeguarded against making any big moves. They're hardly stocked with assets, making a blockbuster-style trade almost impossible.
A league source told Marc Berman of the New York Post the Knicks were on the periphery of Rondo rumors, which is saying something, since he was auctioned off for pennies on the dollar. Still, there's always the chance something crops up—especially for these rumor-magnet Knicks.
Fans can only hope team president Phil Jackson has the gall to walk away from that situation. If the Knicks want to pursue Durant, Dragic and Gasol, among others, in the coming summers, their books need to remain squeaky clean. Midseason acquisitions put their forthcoming flexibility in jeopardy.
Impact moves also devalue the Knicks' first-round draft pick (they actually own one this year!). They're in top-five-selection territory at the moment, and adding a rookie with superstar potential—while remaining in contention for a free-agent superstar—is far more important than padding the win column during a 2014-15 campaign run afoul.
*Stats via Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played on Dec. 21, 2014. Salary information and draft-pick commitments via HoopsHype and RealGM.
