7 Early Dark-Horse Candidates to Make the 2015 NBA All-Star Game
It hasn't gotten any easier to make the All-Star Game, particularly for guys like Memphis Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley. He's still looking to make his first appearance, and he isn't the only one.
Even for those once counted as All-Star regulars (e.g. Tim Duncan), the race has become a difficult one. This league isn't short on elite players, and many of them playing are in the primes of their careers and playing for successful franchises that maximize exposure.
It's no accident the notion of "snubs" has become commonplace in the league's lexicon. There's simply not enough All-Star love to go around.
Here's a look at seven possibilities who may have a difficult time getting well-deserved recognition despite their best efforts. With February festivities just around the corner, these individuals will have their hands full making their respective cases in the interim.
All statistics and record information current as of games played on Dec. 22.
Tim Duncan—F/C, San Antonio Spurs
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It feels awfully strange to think about San Antonio Spurs icon Tim Duncan as a dark horse in any respect, but last season was the first in his career without an All-Star selection (excluding the 1998-99 season in which All-Star events were cancelled on account of a league-wide lockout).
One might conclude the 38-year-old's All-Star days are over, but his numbers are actually outpacing last season's output—thanks in part to injuries that have curtailed contributions from the likes of Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter. Through his first 24 appearances, Duncan is averaging three more minutes per contest than he did a season ago, and it shows in his production.
The 18th-year veteran is tallying 16 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and 2.3 blocks per game. His 22.83 player efficiency rating ranks sixth league-wide among power forwards and centers and fourth among those averaging at least 30 minutes per contest, per Hollinger Player Stats. By that metric, he actually comes out ahead of guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwight Howard and Zach Randolph.
"Gotta change with the times," Duncan told reporters on Monday, per mySanAntonio.com's Dan McCarney . "I can't jump and move like I used to, so I have to adjust and get into position and anticipate and do whatever I can to get there early."
Thanks to his two-way pedigree and sometimes-forgotten passing ability, Duncan remains one of the West's premier big men. But with modest playing time and a skilled supporting cast, the 14-time All-Star may well be overlooked this season.
Brandon Knight—PG, Milwaukee Bucks
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By the numbers, Milwaukee Bucks point guard Brandon Knight appears to be pulling ahead of Kemba Walker and Jeff Teague, both talented young floor generals vying for an All-Star nod behind favorites John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry and—if he can stay healthy—Derrick Rose.
The 23-year-old Kentucky product is averaging 17.5 points, 5.4 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game. He's the East's fourth-highest-scoring point guard, and he's making a career-high 39.5 percent of his three-point attempts while spearheading Milwaukee's impressive start.
These aren't empty numbers.
Unfortunately, Wall and Irving virtual locks, so Knight's best chance of joining the All-Star roster likely requires him to edge Lowry and Rose—who lead the East's first- and fourth-seeded teams respectively. The Bucks have been good, but they haven't been that good.
Shooting guards Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler are sure to be named All-Stars, so the roster can only carry so many point guards.
Sadly, Knight probably won't be one of them.
Mike Conley—PG, Memphis Grizzlies
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Still awaiting his first All-Star appearance, Memphis Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley made a pretty compelling case a season ago. The difference this season is that those Grizzlies have gotten off to an exceptional 21-7 start that ranks second in the Western Conference.
Surely his efficient 17.9 points and 6.1 assists per contest warrant some serious consideration.
The problem is that the West is loaded with great point guards. Even if Tony Parker doesn't make the cut this season, Conley will still contend with Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook—all outstanding players leading would-be contenders. There's no doubt Conley will feature prominently in the conversation, but he's by no means a lock.
"I'd be a liar if I said I didn't care about making the All-Star team," he told NBA.com's Jeff Caplan in October. "That would be the ultimate honor. But I also understand the way things shake out, especially being in the West. There's a lot of good guys out there. I'm going to put myself in position. That's all I can do—just play well and do what's best for the team first. If we win games, we as individuals get noticed, and I think that's the biggest thing."
The Grizzlies are winning games, and Conley is indeed getting noticed. But it still not might be enough to get him the All-Star recognition he deserves.
Monta Ellis—SG, Dallas Mavericks
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On pace to average at least 19 points per contest for the eighth time in his career, it's nothing short of amazing that Monta Ellis has never been named to the All-Star team. This guy averaged as many as 25.5 points per game back in 2009-10 with the Golden State Warriors—and 24.1 points per game a season later.
At the moment, he's tallying 21.1 points per game, twice posting a season-high 38 points. His 4.5 assists per contest seem relatively modest, but it's worth remembering he's averaging just 34 minutes per game—the fewest since his rookie campaign back in 2005-06.
And it's never been about the passing with Ellis. He was born to score the ball, and he's doing so at an especially efficient rate this season, making 46.9 percent of his field-goal attempts for the league's most efficient team offense (which is scoring 112.9 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Team Stats).
That could be a difference-maker in All-Star calculations. Ellis is leading a potent scoring attack for a team that's gotten off to very good 20-9 start in the Western Conference.
The wealth of exceptional guards in that conference is problematic, however. At the 2 spot alone, James Harden and Klay Thompson are having career seasons, and you have to imagine the iconic Kobe Bryant will snag a spot in spite of his horrific 37.2 percent success rate from the field.
Even though Ellis actually trumps Thompson and Bryant in value added and estimated wins added, per Hollinger Player Stats, the math doesn't look particularly good for the 29-year-old.
Asked in a chat session with readers whether Ellis had a chance, The Dallas Morning News' Eddie Sefko replied, "Can't see it. He's falling in somewhere behind Chris Paul, James Harden, Tony Parker, Damian Lillard, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and maybe Mike Conley, Russell Westbrook and Goran Dragic. There are only spots for six guards/wings on the West squad, maybe seven tops. It's just too competitive."
One could very plausibly argue that Ellis has an edge over Parker, Conley and Dragic, but he'd still likely need that seventh guard/wing spot to even have a shot.
Goran Dragic—G, Phoenix Suns
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Like Conley and Ellis, Goran Dragic is still up against the numbers. And if he didn't sneak in after a 2013-14 season that earned him All-NBA Third Team honors, it's hard to imagine his chances will be any better with his numbers taking a somewhat precipitous fall—at least in terms of per-game output.
The Phoenix Suns' addition of Isaiah Thomas in the offseason has predictably robbed Dragic of minutes and touches alike, compounding a situation that already existed to some degree with combo guard Eric Bledsoe doing his share of the handling as well.
In his 32.3 minutes per game, Dragic has still managed to do plenty of damage through his first 27 appearances. He's averaging 16 points and 4.1 assists per contest while making 49.3 percent of his field-goal attempts—an incredibly solid mark given how much of his scoring comes from the perimeter.
Despite the efficiency, cracking the All-Star conversation hasn't become any easier for Dragic. Given his slightly diminished role, he faces an even steeper uphill battle than he confronted a season ago—when he wound up averaging 20.3 points and 5.9 assists for the season.
As Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver noted in October:
"Dragic stood as the West's most deserving snub once the Pelicans' Davis was named as an injury replacement [last season]. That said, the competition was so fierce that it was easier to make the case against Dragic than the case for him. He was beaten out by Curry, Paul, Parker and Lillard, all four of whom played for teams ahead of the surprising Suns in the standings.
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Phoenix once again has a shot at making the playoffs, but it's only one of nine teams in the West that's currently above .500 in the standings—and at 15-14, it's ninth. With a number of more prominent guards making key contributions to more successful clubs, Dragic's best shot at an All-Star Game may already be behind him.
Paul Millsap—PF, Atlanta Hawks
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It's become increasingly difficult to overlook Paul Millsap in light of the Atlanta Hawks' strong 20-7 start.
And while he trails Pau Gasol and Kevin Love in per-game scoring, he's outscoring Love by 1.1 points per 48 minutes and outshooting him by a 47.5 to 43.4 percent margin. They're also both making 35.5 percent of their three-point attempts, which at least partially mitigates the argument that Love is the superior floor-spacer (though he almost certainly is on balance).
Atlanta's dependence on ensemble contributions from the likes of Jeff Teague, Al Horford and Kyle Korver may further complicate the case for Millsap, but he did manage to snag his first All-Star appearance last season—his first with the Hawks.
"It's so special that I can't really describe how special it is," Millsap told reporters in February, per The Times-Picayune's Andrew Lopez. "It's my first All-Star Game in my hometown [Monroe, near New Orleans, LA]. It took me eight years, but that's what makes it even more special."
It goes without saying a second consecutive year of All-Star honors would be all the more special.
While the East isn't exactly crawling with elite big men, centers Chris Bosh and Al Jefferson are virtual locks for the All-Star Game—as are Gasol and Love, who are both spending their first seasons in the East. One could even envision 21-year-old Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond getting a nod on account of his 12.6 rebounds per game and elite rim protection.
There may once again be enough room for Millsap, but it's anything but automatic.
Nikola Vucevic—C, Orlando Magic
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Averaging a double-double in his third consecutive season, Orlando Magic center Nikola Vucevic is posting a career-high 18.3 points per contest through his first 24 appearances. Unfortunately, his team remains well below .500, and that may imperil his chances of joining more established stars at the All-Star festivities.
Still, this guy flat-out produces. That's beyond refute.
Head coach Doc Rivers had nothing but positive reviews after the 24-year-old tallied 19 points and 14 rebound against his Los Angeles Clippers on Nov. 19.
"Vucevic is an All-Star and a terrific player," Rivers told reporters after the game, per NBA.com's John Denton. "He's probably the best player in the league that nobody knows. I don't think you hear anybody talking about him, but when you look at his raw numbers they are superstar and All-Star worthy, but nobody knows it."
Name recognition can certainly be a barrier to All-Star entry, but Rivers' endorsement isn't inconsequential. After all, it's the coaches who select those All-Star reserves. Perhaps the people who matter most are beginning to take notice.
Like Millsap, Vucevic has some competition. Without an All-Star category dedicated exclusively to centers, the arrivals of guys like Gasol and Love will complicate the fourth-year pro's otherwise promising chances.
