New England Patriots vs. New York Jets: Complete Week 16 Preview for New England
During the Rex Ryan era, the New York Jets have always represented the New England Patriots' biggest and thorniest rival. Though the Pats have typically held the talent edge, the Jets have beaten the Pats four times since Ryan's arrival before the 2009 season, more than any other team in the league.
Still, the talent disparity has never been larger than it will be on Sunday, when the Patriots face a hapless 3-11 Jets playing out the string. Ryan will almost certainly be fired, with embattled general manager John Idzik perhaps following him out the door. Quite honestly, it is difficult to conceive of how the Jets win on Sunday without a series of catastrophic injures and/or a The Dark Knight Rises type of apocalyptic sequence.
Thus, the Patriots will need to exhibit professionalism in taking care of an inferior opponent. Mental toughness usually refers to a team's ability to respond to adversity, but it also refers to possessing the discipline to approach every opponent in the same manner. Gang Green will likely throw the kitchen sink at New England on Sunday.
With that in mind, here's a look at the keys for the Patriots to avoid a stunning upset as they continue their march toward home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Patriots Week 15 Recap
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The Patriots' AFC East-clinching victory over the Miami Dolphins last Sunday was an illustration of how dangerous the Pats can be when they play complete complementary football. After a lackluster first half left New England with an undeserved one-point halftime lead, the Pats blitzed Miami for 24 points in the third quarter.
It was a franchise record for most points in a single quarter.
The re-emergence of Jonas Gray was the most noteworthy story from an offensive perspective, as the exiled third-year back returned to provide an important second-half spark. He picked up 62 yards on 5.6 yards per carry, keeping Miami's dangerous defensive line off balance for the entire half. Considering how LeGarrette Blount has sputtered to the tune of 83 yards on 28 carries (2.96 yards per attempt) the past two weeks, expect Gray to receive a greater proportion of the carries going forward.
Defensively, the Pats had issues with the deep ball in the first half, as Mike Wallace burned undrafted rookie Malcolm Butler for a 50-yard gain on the game's first play and a 32-yard touchdown on Miami's final play of the first half. Since Kyle Arrington may be iffy this week with a hamstring injury, it will be interesting to see if the Pats turn back to Butler, or if they continue with Logan Ryan, as they did in the second half.
More importantly, the defense shut down Lamar Miller and the Fins running game to 76 yards on 3.3 yards per attempt. Miami's inside zone was the catalyst behind its Week 1 upset, as the Dolphins compiled 191 rushing yards that day.
Similarly, the Jets nearly rode Chris Ivory to a Thursday night stunner in the first meeting, accruing a whopping 218 total rushing yards. After the Pats turned around their run defense in one rematch, a repeat performance will be imperative this Sunday.
News and Notes
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Any Weakness to Pats Offense?
The Patriots offense has drawn plenty of praise during the latter half of Tom Brady's career. Following the Pats' 41-point outburst over a stingy Fins defense, ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss put the offense under a microscope with a round-table article format featuring NFL analysts Damien Woody, Tedy Bruschi and Field Yates.
The trio were mostly effusive in their praise, highlighting New England's incomparable game plan versatility and steady leadership. But the most interesting topic may actually have revolved around the offense's potential weaknesses. While the Pats have led the league with a whopping 31.0 points per game since 2007, that number has dropped nearly a full touchdown to 24.9 during postseason games in that span.
Yates believes that New England's amorphous offense is a bit vulnerable to unpredictable changes in a game's complexion:
"Additionally, game flow. If, for example, you want to attack a defense on the ground but fall behind early, do you stick with the running game? Or air it out to try to score faster? It felt as though this happened when the Patriots played the Packers in Week 13, when Green Bay scored 23 first-half points. Sometimes the circumstances of the game can dictate how you have to/want to play offense more so than you anticipated during your week of preparation.
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Some of the decline obviously stems from stiffer competition, so there's a bit of biased sampling in that statistic. It seems the bigger issue occurs when teams can win in the trenches (Denver in last year's AFC Championship Game, the Giants in the two Super Bowls, etc.). Though the O-line has not collapsed to its catastrophic September level of play, the unit has dipped a bit the past three games, making it a vital component to watch moving forward.
The Chandler Jones Domino Effect
Chandler Jones' return to the lineup was vital in itself, as an inconsistent pass rush regained its best edge-rusher. However, as the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe notes, the respect Miami paid to Jones may have created a beneficial domino effect for the rest of the front seven:
"Jones was on the field for 43 passing plays, and he was double-teamed 16 times and triple-teamed once. That obviously opened up opportunities for Ninkovich, Ayers, Vince Wilfork and the rest of the linemen to take on one-on-one blocks. Jones had some inside stunts to free up other rushers, including one design for Ninkovich and another when he engaged with James before quickly hitting Colledge to confuse the linemen enough to give Jamie Collins a late lane.
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During Jones' absence, the Patriots acquired a trio of rotational front seven players in Akeem Ayers, Alan Branch and Jonathan Casillas. Thus, it may not be entirely fair to do a before-after comparison. Nevertheless, it's worth noting that, over the first seven weeks with Jones in the lineup, the Pats never accrued more than 24 quarterback pressures, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). On Sunday, New England had 28 pressures on Ryan Tannehill's 51 dropbacks.
We'll discuss Jones' performance in greater depth later (spoiler alert), but in its current healthy state, this is the deepest front seven rotation the Patriots have employed in years. Given that past playoff losses have featured an inability to pressure the likes of Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco, this is an auspicious sign for New England's postseason run.
Playing the Long Game with Easley
"Pats didn’t get much out of Easley this year -- 10 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT -- but this was a long-view draft pick for a player coming off ACL
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) December 17, 2014"
Few 2014 first-rounders disappointed statistically as much as Dominique Easley, whose season came to an end when the Pats placed him on injured reserve amid lingering right knee soreness. Yet when scouring for a consensus, disappointment was not the prevailing sentiment. Rather, experts accept that Easley was a pick meant for 2015 and beyond.
Indeed, having torn his ACL during September of his senior season, it was always going to be tough for Easley to work his way out from behind the eight-ball. The ex-Florida defensive tackle missed nearly the entire offseason program, though he did rebound to earn a significant part-time role, playing 42.1 percent of the snaps between Weeks 4 and 11.
Some Pats analysts have likened Easley's situation to that of Aaron Dobson, who may have been rushed back after setbacks stemming from offseason foot surgery. That school of thought suggests that it may be better to let Easley heal totally rather than forcing him back for the postseason as a possible rotation piece. Though losing depth is never ideal, the Pats should have the depth to survive without a big postseason payoff from their top draft choice.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Danny Aiken | LS | Questionable |
| Kyle Arrington | CB | Questionable |
| LeGarrette Blount | RB | Questionable |
| Dan Connolly | OG | Questionable |
| Julian Edelman | WR | Questionable |
| Cameron Fleming | OT | Questionable |
| Dont'a Hightower | LB | Questionable |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Questionable |
| Brandon LaFell | WR | Questionable |
| Rob Ninkovich | DE | Questionable |
| Shane Vereen | RB | Questionable |
| Chris White | LB | Questionable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
The biggest concerns this week are Kyle Arrington and Julian Edelman. Arrington exited a game for the third time in four weeks last Sunday, but unlike the previous two instances, he did not return after suffering a hamstring injury.
Fortunately, the slot corner is not nearly as important against the Jets, whose woeful passing game has forced them into plenty of run-heavy power personnel. Though this figures to become a base package-heavy game for New England, either Logan Ryan or Malcolm Butler should be capable enough to cover Jeremy Kerley.
Meanwhile, Edelman was listed with a concussion in addition to the lingering thigh injury. It's unclear when he may have suffered the injury, but given that he must clear concussion protocol before returning to game action, Minitron's status is iffy until we receive further intel. The Pats' reliance on their top two wide receivers would leave the position in a tenuous state, as Danny Amendola would likely ascend to Edelman's role as a flanker and slot option.
LeGarrette Blount is also a new addition to the report this week with a shoulder issue, though it does not appear like anything that should prevent him from suiting up. Though Easley went on IR this week, the Pats remain fortunate to not have suffered more severe injuries as the season winds down.
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Bryan Stork and Ryan Wendell vs. Sheldon Richardson
The insertions of Stork and Wendell into the starting lineup played huge roles in stabilizing New England's once-leaky offensive line. The rookie Stork ranks sixth in pass-blocking efficiency among all centers, while Wendell has rediscovered his acumen as a run-blocker, with a plus-7.8 run-blocking grade that ranks 10th among centers.
That combination will face one of its stiffest tests of the season in left end Sheldon Richardson, the reigning defensive rookie of the year and arguably New York's biggest difference-maker with Muhammad Wilkerson injured. Though Richardson was solid in the first meeting, he was not his typical havoc-wreaking self, with "just" three quarterback pressures and a single run stop over 49 snaps.
Nevertheless, at plus-33.1 overall for the season, Richardson remains the second-highest graded 3-4 defensive end this season, behind only the immortal J.J. Watt. Interior pressure has always been Tom Brady's kryptonite; therefore, Richardson represents one of the very few game-changers the Jets can rely upon to potentially spring the upset.
Thus, when Richardson slides inside in sub-package personnel, expect double-teams every play, especially if Wilkerson remains out. Though Brady's significantly improved mobility has given the O-line a larger margin for error this season, Stork and Wendell face the most important assignment along the line to ensure their quarterback's health and productivity.
Darrelle Revis vs. Percy Harvin
When Revis faced his original team in Week 7, Percy Harvin was still in his twilight days as a disgruntled Seattle Seahawk. Revis largely faced off against Eric Decker back in October, but Brandon Browner's length makes him an ideal matchup for the 6'3" Decker. Browner, who was playing his first game of the season, may have matched up against Decker had he been fully healthy and in shape.
Thus, the shifty Harvin figures to draw New England's top corner. Apart from two seemingly random 100-yard performances against Kansas City and Minnesota, Harvin has been largely ineffectual while mired in New York's dismal passing game. Since arriving in Gotham, he has compiled 25 catches for 306 yards and one touchdown. However, most of that production came in those two aforementioned games, as he has failed to eclipse three catches or 23 yards in every other game as a Jet.
Facing the red-hot Revis, that figures to be trouble. Over the last five games, Revis has not allowed more than 53 yards in any single game, and just one quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) has completed over half his passes while targeting No. 24. Geno Smith did have some success in the first game, however, completing three of four passes for 43 yards while targeting Revis.
Considering how that unfolded, the Pats might copy their game plan from when they faced Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate of the Detroit Lions: Have Browner cover the big outside target with safety help over the top while Revis follows the chain-moving slot receiver. With Browner now healthy, the Pats secondary is well-equipped to match up against the Jets wide receivers.
Chandler Jones vs. D'Brickashaw Ferguson
Last Sunday, Jones was surprisingly explosive and active in his first action since Week 7. Facing rookie left tackle Ja'Wuan James, the third-year edge-rusher played 56 of 81 defensive snaps and stuffed the stat sheet with 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble, six pressures and four run stops.
This week, Jones will get a stiffer challenge against the veteran Ferguson. The three-time Pro Bowler has not played up to his usual lofty standards in 2014, ranking 26th among tackles in pass-blocking efficiency with a 95.3 percent rate. However, Ferguson's best pass-blocking performance of the season came against the Pats, as he graded out at plus-2.5 on the night while not allowing a single quarterback pressure.
Rushing a mobile quarterback like Smith is a multifaceted assignment, as Jones must keep lane discipline to contain Smith in the pocket. He and Rob Ninkovich lost edge containment at times in the first game, allowing Smith to gain four first downs and 37 rushing yards on just seven scrambles.
Thus, Jones must display the same discipline he did last week in beating James straight up. Even if he does not generate as much pressure as he did last week, helping slow the running game while also forcing Smith to beat New England's secondary from the pocket would represent a win for the Pats.
X-Factor: Sealver Siliga
Nose tackles rarely receive any mainstream acclaim, but since returning to the lineup two weeks ago, Siliga has had an important underlying effect on the Patriots defense. Providing much-needed interior beef with his 6'2", 325-pound frame, Siliga's return has coincided with the Pats' conceding a paltry 3.2 yards per carry over the past two weeks.
Much like how Akeem Ayers has enabled the Pats to rotate their edge defenders, Siliga's return takes some of the heat off workhorse veteran Vince Wilfork. During Siliga's absence from Weeks 4-13, Wilfork played a whopping 87.4 percent of the snaps, an even greater burden then he bore during his 2010-12 prime. The past two weeks, Wilfork has played 78 out of 138 defensive snaps, a much more palatable 56.5 percent rate.
As I alluded to earlier in this preview, the ground game was the catalyzing factor behind New York's near-upset in Foxborough earlier this season. It's exceedingly difficult to win when the opponent holds the ball for 40 minutes, 54 seconds, as the Jets did.
Siliga is not solely responsible for improving that effort this time, of course, but his presence should allow for a rotation to keep the defensive tackles fresh against a Jets offense that will surely attempt to replicate that game plan.
Prediction
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Patriots fans expecting a total walkover will mostly likely find themselves surprised for most of this contest. Rex Ryan's Jets have always been a prideful bunch, and in the waning days of their head coach's tenure, New York may very well put forth its most inspired effort of the season against Ryan's biggest rivals.
Nevertheless, apart from their defensive line, there is no area where the Jets can claim a decisive matchup advantage over the Pats. New York's offensive deficiencies give it no margin for error against a talented New England defense, so the Jets will likely need a big special teams play or two to have a realistic opportunity at victory.
The worst-case scenario for the Patriots might resemble the 2012 escape against the Jacksonville Jaguars, or the opening-day 2013 win over the Buffalo Bills. There have been instances in the past where the Pats have simply come out flat, and fresh off a six-game stretch against teams with winning records, a letdown against arguably the worst team on the schedule might seem natural.
However, this Patriots squad has been remarkable for its week-to-week consistency. Even if the Jets come out with a quick haymaker, expect New England's mental fortitude and superior talent to shine through decisively.
Prediction: Patriots 36, Jets 12
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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