Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills: Breaking Down Green Bay's Game Plan
Heading into the game, both the Buffalo Bills and the Green Bay Packers are hoping to extend their chances to make the playoffs.
The Packers, at 10-3, have overcome their slow 1-2 start to 2014. Now, as the leaders of the NFC North, their eyes have moved toward the goal of a first-round bye. Tied for the league's best record, there's a possibility that they can leave Buffalo with the lead in the conference and also extend their division lead to two games over the currently 9-4 Detroit Lions.
On the other hand, the Bills are in a much different situation. After an early-season quarterback change, moving on from the young EJ Manuel to Kyle Orton, who was picked up as a street free agent, Buffalo has made up for lost ground to keep a 7-6 record, good for a tie for second in the AFC East. If the season ended today, the Bills would be left out of the playoffs, but they still have a healthy shot to get in, if they can beat Green Bay.
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In what looks to be a highly competitive game, the Packers must show up on both sides of the ball to leave northern New York with a victory.
Key on Offense: Let Aaron Rodgers Cook
Offensively, Green Bay ranks sixth in passing and 14th on the ground in yards per game. The Bills rank fifth in stopping the pass and eighth in stopping the run.
When looking at points per game, the Packers average the best in the league, while Buffalo prevents the fourth most in the NFL.
Overall, this is a strength-on-strength matchup. Despite losing Kiko Alonzo, a stellar linebacker coming off a huge season, due to injury, the team coached by Doug Marrone has put together a nice defensive front.
Three of the Bills' four starting defensive linemen are currently in the top 10 at their positions based on Pro Bowl voting, which NFL.com released earlier in the week.
With Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus and Jerry Hughes being featured, that must mean the other player must be the weak link of the trenches, right? Wrong. Kyle Williams, the other premier defensive tackle on the team along with Dareus, is a three-time Pro Bowler, making three of the last four, including the most recent two.
Luckily for the Packers offense, Green Bay's big nasties are looking good and meshing well at this point in the season. Against the Atlanta Falcons last week, they allowed Aaron Rodgers to stay clean and make plays in another high-flying performance by the squad.
Pro Football Focus even named the unit one of the best in football, despite the fact that right tackle Bryan Bulaga, who is now back in the starting lineup, was out due to an injury. On the offensive side of the new Pro Bowl rankings, all five members of the line are in the top six for their positions. Fans have already ranked Corey Linsley, a fifth-round rookie who wasn't expected to contribute until an injury to JC Tretter forced him into a role, as the third-best center in the league.
This game will start and end with the battle at the line of scrimmage. If Green Bay is able to shut down shop up front for the pass rush, Rodgers will be able to pick apart a secondary that isn't exactly a strength of the team.
If Buffalo can force Rodgers in an uncomfortable position, either by forcing him up into the pocket with edge pressure or just flat breaking pocket integrity with interior pressure, it could be a rough day for the passer, who is known for holding on to the a ball a little late in the down.
The Bills defense is beatable, though, when given time to break down. For example, it had an issue covering the slot against the Denver Broncos last week.
This is a pretty basic look from Denver. Out of the shotgun, it's playing 11 personnel with one tight end and one running back. Buffalo elected to stay in base defense, giving Manning numbers to throw deep, if he could get the ball off.
With two safeties high, this gives Manning the read of either Cover 2 or Cover 4.
It was apparent after the snap that the defense was in Cover 4. The two boundary corners had to cover the quarters of the field on the sideline, while the safeties split the center half.
Wes Welker, the slot target, ran a post route in an attempt to hit the open spot down the field, between the safeties. If he could split the defensive backs, it was his best chance on a big play.
With a clean pocket, Manning was able to look downfield with ease. Welker, in better position than the safety, was able to run clean down the pipe with plenty of space to work with.
The two Broncos connected for a huge game due to 1) the Buffalo front not getting at the quarterback efficiently and 2) the poor play of the back end of the Buffalo defense.
Jairus Byrd signed a $56 million dollar contract with the New Orleans Saints this past offseason after starting his career as a free safety for the Bills. On tape, it's apparent that they have yet to find the man to replace him, or that he's not developed nearly to that level yet.
Armed with potential Pro Bowl skill players in Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Eddie Lacy, the Packers are poised to keep a Buffalo defense balanced on Sunday. If Green Bay can hit on a few deep balls, similar to the one featured above, which was an identical concept to Nelson's 70-yard touchdown reception on Monday, then the Packers have a probable shot at winning the game.
Defensive Key: Exploit the Offensive Line
If the Packers offense against the Bills defense is the strength-on-strength matchup, the Packers defense versus the Bills offense is the weakness-on-weakness one.
On the ground, Buffalo is 25th in the league in yards per game. Through the air, it's 17th. The Packers aren't much better, if better at all, on defense. They rank 20th in stopping the pass and 25th in stopping the run, which is better than earlier in the season when they were ranked 31st, only behind the then-winless Oakland Raiders.
In points per game, the Bills rank 18th, while the Packers rank exactly 18th, too, in limiting offenses. Across the board, this is pretty even, though not in a heavyweight-title way.
Kyle Orton is leading this Buffalo team after 2013 first-round pick EJ Manuel was benched. Orton is currently 17th in the NFL in passer rating. In contrast to Rodgers, who ranks first, this is a stark drop in talent.
To be totally honest, there's not much going for the Bills when they have the ball. They run a lot of misdirection plays and quick passes, not to the level of the Miami Dolphins or Philadelphia Eagles but enough to give the look they're running a system with more value than their skill talent.
Outside of Sammy Watkins, there's very little to get exited about when watching this team.
The offensive line has done a solid job, but due to the youth and rotation at some positions, it hasn't totally put it all together this season.
For example, the bookends on the team are Cordy Glenn and Seantrel Henderson. Glenn is listed at 345 pounds currently and was projected to be a guard at the next level. While he's held his weight, no pun intended, on the edge, there are very few examples of players his size playing on the blind side of the pocket. He's also not the most athletic guy.
Henderson was a top recruit coming out of high school, and after moving his commitment from the University of Southern California to the University of Miami, he had a marginal college career. Despite that, the Bills selected him in the seventh round based on potential, and he even started at left tackle to begin the preseason, when Glenn was out with an illness.
Henderson is now the starting right tackle, and while he too hasn't looked completely out of place, he hasn't looked groomed.
To speak about the Buffalo offense involves a lot of "yeah, but..." explanations.
For example, here's a look at run plays during the Bills' matchup last week against the Broncos.
This play is an outside zone, with the back-side tight end looping around to the next level. With the blocking assignments called correctly, every man in the box should have had a hat on him. This means a corner or safety would have had to make a play on the running back.
Pay close attention to the right tackle and the left defensive end.
Henderson, the tackle, completely misses his block. A mental error, the man he was looking to go after was being taken care of by his center, while his assigned man was ankle-deep in the backfield. The tight end here isn't in a position to make a play on the man, either. On the play side, two defensive linemen reestablished the line of scrimmage in the backfield, forcing the outside zone inside.
With the edge still set, the running back moves to the next hole, which is occupied by a man. He had to bounce it to the opposite side of the field, where there's a free man and two free blockers.
Losing on multiple fronts from the jump, this play never had a chance.
This play is an inside zone. Everyone has a man, while the center works on the double-team of the 1-technique defensive tackle before moving to the second level. The play is designed to hit in that general area downhill.
At the handoff, the center is working to the linebacker, while the fullback on the opposite side has yet to find his man, who is using his teammate as somewhat of a shield until the running back decides where he's going.
Henderson gets tossed off his block once the running cuts to his side, meaning his man and the free linebacker were free to make a play.
And that they did, again.
What really makes Buffalo's mistakes on offense look poor are penetrators. Green Bay has plenty of those. For as "bad" as the defense is, most of it comes from a lack of big-bodied defensive linemen, hard-hitting linebackers and the "bend, don't break" approach Dom Capers has.
When B.J. Raji, the one player who seemed to be a starting-caliber large defensive lineman on the roster, went out with a biceps injury in the preseason, it all seemed over for the Packers' run game. In recent weeks, though, Green Bay has improved that interior triangle by swapping in Clay Matthews and Sam Barrington as starting inside linebackers.
On the line, the three best players, Mike Daniels, Datone Jones and Letroy Guion, have all made plays in the backfield. On the edge, Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews, Nick Perry and Mike Neal have all made plays behind the line of scrimmage this season. Matthews, now at inside linebacker, has hit holes downhill from inside gaps.
As long as Sam Shields doesn't have a similar game to the one he had less than a week ago, the Packers could make a lot of plays that could embarrass the Bills during film study next week.
Final Thoughts
On paper, this game should be close. All the statistics have the Packers and Bills neck-to-neck, outside of their records. When watching and trying to explain the numbers, though, some things start to separate between the teams.
The most obvious is the quarterback play, which features one player who was a free agent to start the season and another who may be having the best year of anyone in the NFL. Ever.
The offensive line play isn't great for the Bills, either, while the Packers are slated to send their entire line to the Pro Bowl this year. The ability to make plays in the front seven on both squads is good. While the Packers have talented edge players and move them around to various spots, the Bills have a talented line, loaded with future and former Pro Bowlers.
If the Packers can limit the pressure of the Buffalo defense while taking what the Bills offense gives them, as far as opportunities for sacks and tackles behind the line of scrimmage go, it's safe to assume they can leave the frost-bitten city of Buffalo for the nice, cozy frost-bitten city of Green Bay with a win.
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