Kosta Koufos or Timofey Mozgov: Which Big Should Cleveland Cavs Trade For?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are starting to figure things out, which has led to both better performances and clearer answers to their personnel questions.
The good news is the Cavs are starting to look as talented as their fantasy roster says they are. They have reeled off six consecutive victories and dominated their opponents by 15.8 points per 100 possessions over that stretch.
But all of that success has come despite the fact Cleveland remains pillow-soft on the interior. Preseason concerns about this team's rim protection persist, perhaps looming even larger with the Cavs hinting they could be ready to compete on a championship stage sooner rather than later.
They desperately need to find someone to patrol the paint. And that search has reportedly led them to 7-footers Timofey Mozgov and Kosta Koufos, both of whom are more than capable of providing an interior presence underneath the basket.
The problem is these bruising bigs are gainfully employed at the moment—Mozgov by the Denver Nuggets and Koufos by the Memphis Grizzlies. Each is currently filling a valuable role for his respective team, too, with Mozgov owning a spot in coach Brian Shaw's starting lineup and Koufos offering substantial insurance behind All-Star center Marc Gasol.
In other words, the Cavs might be looking to buy, but that doesn't mean the Nuggets or Grizzlies want to sell. No one needs to explain that to Cleveland, which has unsuccessfully pursued Mozgov for a while, as both Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski and ESPN's Brian Windhorst have reported.
The 7'1", 250-pound center could help scratch the Cavs' biggest itch.
In 25.6 minutes a night, Mozgov has given the Nuggets 9.9 points on 57.4 percent shooting and 7.6 rebounds. More importantly, he has racked up 1.5 blocks per game and held opponents to 45.8 percent shooting at the rim, per NBA.com player tracking data, or a lower percentage than what Taj Gibson (46.4), DeAndre Jordan (46.7) and Marc Gasol (48.7) have allowed.
And this isn't a matter of small-sample-size deception. Mozgov graded out as a top-shelf defender while playing all 82 games in 2013-14.
"Last season, Mozgov allowed opponents to shoot just 47.1 percent within five feet of the rim as a primary defender," wrote ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton (subscription required), "putting him in the top 10 among players who defended at least six such shots per game."
The Cavaliers have gotten 1.8 blocks per game from Kevin Love, Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson combined. Varejao has allowed the lowest field-goal percentage at the rim at 50.0 while Love's opponents have converted those looks at a 59.5 percent clip.
If he was available, Mozgov could give the Cavaliers something they currently lack. Theoretically, he could also make a relatively smooth transition to Cleveland as he previously played for head coach David Blatt when both were with the Russian national team.
Mozgov might not be the biggest name out there, but he should rank at or near the top of any Cavaliers fan's wish lists based on what he could potentially provide.
"His ability to defend and familiarity with Cleveland's new head coach would indeed seem to make Mozgov a perfect fit for what the Cavaliers are lacking," wrote NBC Sports' Brett Pollakoff.
If Mozgov fits like a glove, Koufos fits like an adjustable hat. It isn't quite as seamless, but the Cavs could make it pretty close.
According to ESPN.com's Marc Stein, Koufos is another option the Cavaliers are willing to explore:
"The Cleveland Cavaliers are widening their scope in search of the rim protector that, even amid their best basketball of this young season, everyone knows they badly need.
Far more worrisome to the Cavs than their uneven 11-7 start is the lack of a proven presence at the rim to help stiffen their defense for the long term. That's why Cleveland, sources say, has been inquiring with the Memphis Grizzlies about the availability of reserve center Kosta Koufos among their various trade pursuits.
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Even if Mozgov is the preferred target, Koufos could be the more obtainable one for a couple reasons.
The Nuggets are starting Mozgov and paying him a whopping $4.65 million salary this season. If Denver exercises its team option for next season, it can keep the big guy around for $4.95 million.
In other words, the Nuggets have a two-way starting center for this season and next at less than half of what the Boston Celtics will pay Gerald Wallace and his minus-0.3 player efficiency rating for the rest of this year and next.
The Nuggets have no incentive to move Mozgov. In fact, Shaw just said the Nuggets need to start running more offense through the big guy, per Christopher Dempsey of The Denver Post.
Even if one assumes Denver would be willing to deal Mozgov, it's hard to imagine the Nuggets want anything the Cavs would offer. Sources told Stein the Cavs "are well aware landing a quality big man likely depends on selling potential trade partners to take back polarizing shooting guard Dion Waiters."
The Nuggets currently have Arron Afflalo, Wilson Chandler, Randy Foye, Danilo Gallinari, Gary Harris and Alonzo Gee on the wings. And that doesn't mention Ty Lawson, Nate Robinson or Erick Green at the point. There's no place to put Waiters even if they wanted him.
So that means the Cavs should be working on getting the Grizzlies to part with Koufos. And Memphis might actually be willing to talk.
With 34.4 minutes going to Gasol and another 30.9 being earmarked for Zach Randolph, the Grizzlies don't have a lot of playing time to offer Koufos. In fact, the 25-year-old is on pace to average fewer minutes (14.1) than he has since 2010-11.
Unlike Mozgov, Koufos has no commitments beyond this season. His contract expires at year's end, which will make him an unrestricted free agent. And sources told Stein that Koufos' camp has "made it known to Grizzlies management" that it has not been happy with the scraps of playing time he's been given.
So there is a train of thought that says Memphis should explore flipping Koufos for something of value before he leaves for nothing on his own. Considering the minimal impact he's made on the stat sheet (3.9 points, 3.8 rebounds), some might even feel like the Grizzlies wouldn't miss him.
But this might not be enough to get the Ohio State product back inside the Buckeye State.
CBS Sports' Matt Moore said Memphis cannot afford to move its only true center behind Gasol:
"Under no circumstances should Memphis trade Koufos for Waiters. Not even about Waiters. About saving Marc.
— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) December 8, 2014"
Hoops Critic's Brian Geltzeiler said Koufos is too valuable to deal for someone like Waiters:
If nothing else, these reactions paint an unnerving picture of Waiters' current market value. The ex-volume scorer always battled efficiency, but this season, he has struggled to find both quantity (8.1 points, 1.9 assists) and quality (.367/.242/.741 shooting, 7.8 PER).
Bob Finnan of The News-Herald detailed Waiters' rapid fall from grace this season:
"Waiters, 22, hasn't figured out how to co-exist with the All-Star players. If anything, he's regressed.
He was yanked out of the starting lineup after three games. After that proposal failed, at the very least the Cavaliers thought he'd be a potent scorer off the bench. If nothing else, Waiters can usually score points in bunches.
Unfortunately, that hasn't worked out either.
What the next step might be is anyone's guess.
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The Grizzlies are 16-4 with the NBA's sixth-best net efficiency rating (plus-7.2). Any moves they make could threaten to disrupt their chemistry.
Waiters does not look like the type of player worth taking that risk even with Memphis' occasional struggles to score from the perimeter. The Cavs have been paper-thin at the 2 with Matthew Dellavedova out (knee), yet Waiters has logged fewer than 24 minutes in eight of his last nine games.
His value isn't where it needs to be for Cleveland to land a difference-making rim protector. The Cavs have a few other trade chips—a $5.4 million trade exception, future picks including a protected first-rounder from the Grizzlies—but it's hard to say what they would be willing to give up outside of Waiters to fill their interior void.
At some point, Cleveland will need to think of something. The Cavs have tightened up their defense of late (90.7 points per game allowed during the winning streak), but it's tough to plan around the lack of a true deterrent at the basket.
"We're not a team that has great shot-blocking," Blatt said, per Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes. "On the other hand, if you look at our schemes, we can protect the rim, it's jut not necessarily with shot-blocking. But that's an area we have to do a better job."
Maybe the Cavs can help themselves by fortifying their perimeter ranks. They have already been linked to wing defenders Corey Brewer of the Minnesota Timberwolves, per Stein, and the Grizzlies' Tayshaun Prince, per Windhorst. The more offenses they stop at the point of attack, the less their interior will be exposed.
Perhaps they can find a rim protector for cheap somewhere else. Emeka Okafor might be an option whenever he is healthy enough to make his return.
No matter where the Cavs turn next, it's hard to see either Mozgov or Koufos being involved in any way. If they can get either one, they should pull the trigger as soon as possible.
Both players would be tremendous additions, but they come with a price Cleveland cannot easily afford.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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