Despite Strong Start, Growing Pains Loom Large for Houston Rockets
As happens at the start of every NBA season, a handful of teams have bolted to the fore and stolen the show. The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are the star-studded steeds to which the league has hitched its wagon—and rightly so.
All the while, a not-so-slumbering giant stirs just beyond the shores of coastal Texas. It's fast, furious and far from at full strength. Given enough time, it could be the next to carry the contender’s mantle.
You might recognize them as the same old, first-round-doomed Houston Rockets. And that’s just fine by them.
Through 20 games, the Rockets (16-4) co-own the second-best record in the league. They boast the league’s No. 2 defense, attempt more three-pointers than anyone in the league and tout a top-notch scorer in whirling dervish James Harden.
More impressive still, they’ve managed to stay afloat sans the services of Dwight Howard, still one of the top three centers in the league.
Unfortunately, it’s looking like the Rockets will be without their star pivot a bit longer, according to the Houston Chronicle’s Jonathan Feigen.
“It would be nice to get everybody else back, but that won’t be happening any time soon," head coach Kevin McHale told Feigen.
“[Howard] will not be coming back any time soon, either,” he later added. “You might as well ask me about the weather next week. I have no idea. Partly cloudy, baby.”
This naturally invites the question: Can Houston—which hasn’t exactly logged the most laborious of slates, per HoopsHabit's Mauricio Putz—maintain and sustain despite D12's absence in spite of an offense currently ranked 20th in the league in overall efficiency?
You’d think giving the schedule a quick gander would yield some kind of answer. Not so much. The pre-New Year’s stretch is neither particularly tough nor loaded with road games.
Howard’s absence, however, is likely to continue taking its toll—particularly on offense, where NBA.com (subscription required) indicates the Rockets registered an impressive 110.1 offensive rating with their All-Star center on the floor last season.
Indeed, it’s not as if McHale up and subbed some sniper of a stretch 5 in Howard’s absence. Tarik Black, though serviceable, is very much a 15-feet-and-in commodity.
If anything, the attention Howard draws in the post is what’s helped Houston cultivate its cannonade approach. Think of him as the hub to which spokes of snipers are attached—ditto with the Orlando Magic under Stan Van Gundy.
Howard hasn’t been Houston’s only worry, of course. Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones—two opening-day starters—have missed a combined 28 games, with the latter still out while he recovers from nerve damage in his leg.
All this has naturally put an unprecedented amount of pressure on James Harden. According to Basketball-Reference.com, he is registering the highest usage rate (31.1 percent) and the second-lowest true shooting percentage (58 percent) of his career.
Too much pressure? The worry is certainly warranted:
Add it all up, and the road ahead sure doesn’t read as a rosy one for these Rockets. Sooner or later, the thinking goes, Houston’s house money is bound to run out.
But such skepticism ignores a crucial fact of the Rockets’ success: For all the flimsiness of personnel, Houston’s philosophical foundation is as deeply rooted—in both conviction and statistical soundness—as it gets.
The casual fan may well look at the Rockets and conclude nothing more than “They like to shoot threes.” And they wouldn’t be wrong. However, such cynicism cheapens what is, at its core, quite the complex stratagem.
Back in 2013, ESPN.com’s Beckley Mason took a deep dive into how general manager Daryl Morey helped transform the formerly middling Rockets into one of the league’s most exciting teams:
"In that way, Harden's unkempt face-warmer is a tidy metaphor for the Houston Rockets' unique rise into the national conversation. Yes, they play a fast-paced, ventricle-bursting style, but it's not some happy accident. These aren't kids on a playground. This is big business. This is the numbers telling you unexpected things your eyes might miss. This is analytics in action.
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Losing three key starters didn’t dissuade Houston from doing what it does as a matter of course: bombard its foes with enough long bombs to fill a NORAD bunker.
But the Rockets’ renaissance has become about much more than mere mathematics. The development of Beverley, the signing of Trevor Ariza—these are the moves of a team as committed to its culture as its calculus.
“I think that experience is important, but it’s more important to have a work ethic,” Trevor Ariza told The Washington Post’s Michael Lee earlier this season. “And what I’ve noticed here is that everybody wants to get better, everybody wants to help this team win, and that’s all everybody is focused on.”
For his part, Harden is quick to echo his teammate’s sentiments:
Of all the teams riding early-season booms, Houston seems ripest for a swoon—the schedule, while not immediately daunting, certainly isn’t getting any easier.
What the Rockets have done, though, is give themselves the kind of conference cushion that could prove crucial as the season winds down. To say every win counts is the king of sports cliches. In this year, with these teams on the standings prowl, it’s a mantra deserving of a daily seance.
Houston has made a habit of defying the odds throughout its early-season surge.
Shed the best center on the planet? No problem. Thin to within an inch of exhausted depth? There’s more where that came from, apparently. Cling to the three-point line like some steel pole in a squall? Bailed out, you’ll be.
A confluence of stouter foes and statistical regressions are bound to pull the Rockets back into the conference current. Just don’t be surprised when springtime’s floods find them stronger because of it.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics courtesy of ESPN.com.
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