The One Thing Preventing Every NBA Title Contender from Winning It All
As potent as the NBA's top championship threats may seem, each one has its weakness.
Inexperience, too much dependence on injury-prone players, an off-kilter balance between offense and defense—all these shortcomings afflict contenders, and because we know only one club will come out on top, it's an undeniable truth that the rest will be brought down by a specific chink in the armor.
Of course, we also know that winning a ring requires lucky breaks. Every club depends on good luck in the health department, favorable matchups and the hard-to-quantify ability to peak at just the right time. Those are general requirements, though.
Here, we'll run down the league's most formidable clubs—ones with a real shot at winning it all—and isolate the Achilles' heel.
We're not saying each contender's main weakness will leap out and bite it, but if things go wrong, these'll be the most likely reasons why.
Honorable Mentions
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Consider this the preemptive apology section. We had to cut this thing off somewhere, and a few very good teams that still might contend for the title missed out on extensive treatment.
Here's a quick rundown of the best of the rest and their key ring-preventing failings.
Toronto Raptors: First Rodeo
The Toronto Raptors have played better than anyone in the East this season by a hefty margin. But the roster's overall inexperience means the Raps should probably be happy to win a round or two and bow out this season.
It takes a while to build a championship contender, and it almost always requires coming up short a time or two before breaking through. Toronto is terrific, but it hasn't been forged in the fire of a deep run just yet.
Houston Rockets: Lack of System
Shooting tons of threes and layups is a good idea, but it's not a system. The ball tends to stick too often in the Houston Rockets offense, mainly because James Harden knows he can't be stopped in one-on-one situations.
Call me old-fashioned and point out the fact that Houston's offense was the third best in last year's playoffs, but I think continuity and structure matter when the postseason vice grips tighten. I don't think the Rockets can score consistently enough in the sustained, slowed-down slog of four consecutive playoff series.
Dallas Mavericks: In Tyson They Trust
As brilliant as Rick Carlisle's schemes and tactics are, he's not capable of drawing up a way to replace Tyson Chandler, who is basically the sole reason Dallas might defend well enough to make a serious run. As we'll see momentarily, Chandler isn't the only big man who controls the destiny of his team.
His health, at 32 and with 43 games missed over the last two years, is hardly assured. And without Chandler in the middle, the Mavs won't be able to scrape by on D.
Los Angeles Clippers: Depth
Doc Rivers has no capable two-way wings or frontcourt stoppers on his bench. Giving time to Jamal Crawford over Matt Barnes improves the offense but leaves the Los Angeles Clippers without a competitive defender on the perimeter.
Spencer Hawes can pass and shoot from range, but offensive players' eyes light up when he checks in. Unless there's a trade in the works, L.A. doesn't have the bodies to contend.
Golden State Warriors
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Obstacle: Andrew Bogut's Health
We all know it's coming, but none of us know when.
"It" being the inevitable grimace of pain from the Golden State Warriors' 7-foot, two-way anchor Andrew Bogut. The fateful tweak, strain, stress reaction or, as was the case last year, cracked bone that robs the Dubs of a man every bit as important to their success as MVP candidate Stephen Curry.
Golden State's defense is a medieval torture device. On the season, it has squeezed the life out of opponents, limiting them to 95.4 points per 100 possessions—the lowest overall figure in the league. With Bogut on the court, the pain only increases...to a ridiculous 91.6 defensive rating, per NBA.com.
As if that weren't enough, Bogut is now the hub of the offense, catching passes at the top of the circle, screening and firing dimes to cutters and curlers. When he's in the lineup, the Warriors' offensive rating is 109.5, which would rank third in the league. Take him off the floor, and the Dubs score at a rate of 103.5 points per 100 possessions, which is below the league average and just a hair above the punchless Boston Celtics overall.
There's a lot to love about Golden State this year—the increased depth, the offensive flow, the growth of Curry and Klay Thompson. But, as Kirk Goldsberry of Grantland wrote: "It all goes back to Bogut, one of the keys to their success on both ends. His screens, handoffs and passing allow [Steve] Kerr to add new cool wrinkles on the offense, while his intimidating size and defensive prowess keep opponents at bay on the other side."
Bogut is a hulking 260 pounds, just turned 30 and missed 65 games over the past two seasons with the Warriors. His entire career has been marred by injuries, both catastrophic and nagging. That's not an ideal recipe for durability. His broken rib held him out of the 2014 playoff battle against the Los Angeles Clippers, which was the difference in the series.
If Bogut's health were assured, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better contender than the Dubs. But the only thing certain about Bogut, unfortunately, is that he's going to miss time at some point.
The Warriors just have to hope it's not during the postseason.
San Antonio Spurs
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Obstacle: Championship Hangover
The San Antonio Spurs have already scaled the highest mountain imaginable. And that's a problem.
Avenging the gut-wrenching, oh-so-close loss to the Miami Heat in the 2013 NBA Finals by winning it all in 2014 fulfilled every possible wish Gregg Popovich and his Spurs could have had.
Most of all, it felt like a final act, a fulfillment of a desperate, year-old desire.
"No euphoria, nothing like that, just relief," Popovich explained to Harvey Araton of The New York Times.
The Spurs righted the wrong, closed the loop, restored the balance. What's there left to prove? Where does San Antonio turn for motivation now?
A related concern is the sheer improbability of playing as well as the Spurs did in their championship drive. Because of all the powerful factors driving them (defiance, vengeance, desperation), they achieved a level of basketball brilliance that may be impossible to replicate now that the key motivators are absent.
"I looked at the film and said, my gosh," Popovich told Araton. "I don’t know if we can get to the level we played those last three games in Miami."
If there's an organization professional and focused enough to overcome the mother of all championship hangovers, it's the Spurs. But we should keep in mind they've never repeated in the past, and the way last season ended means they've got more reason to relax than ever before.
It'll be tough to find an edge amid all that hard-earned satisfaction.
Oklahoma City Thunder
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Obstacle: The Hole
As a preliminary matter, we've got to agree that OKC is a championship contender on par with the rest of the teams on this list. In terms of roster quality and track record, the Thunder belong in the group; having two of the game's 10 best players and a handful of deep playoff runs stymied by injury in recent years are evidence enough.
Before the 2014-15 season began, OKC was on the very short list of favorites, but then Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook went down, and the losses mounted. Can the Thunder climb out of the hole they've dug, make the playoffs and survive a punishing set of series as a low seed?
Maybe.
Nothing's assured in the West, where a 50-win season might be just good enough to secure a No. 8 spot.
To reach that modest goal, Oklahoma City (5-13 through Dec. 4) will have to win at roughly a 70 percent clip—doable, considering it has won at least 71 percent of its games in each of the past three seasons, but hardly a certainty.
Durant's foot fracture could present problems down the road, and we shouldn't expect him to be in top form for a few weeks because he'll have to get into basketball shape after being inactive since the end of training camp.
We should expect the Thunder to be good for the rest of the year, but they might need to be great in order to make up the ground they lost during the first month.
Memphis Grizzlies
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Obstacle: Sustained Offense
The Memphis Grizzlies have always defended better than just about anybody, but scoring consistently, and with good spacing, has been a problem for as long as the Marc Gasol-Zach Randolph-Mike Conley core has been together.
This season, though, Memphis has manufactured efficient scoring better than it has at any point in the past...so far.
Gasol is attempting a career-high 14.2 shots per 36 minutes, according to Basketball-Reference.com, and his willingness to attack has put defenses on their heels. Where opponents could previously sag off Gasol and pay more attention to the cutters and curlers he was planning to hit with pinpoint passes, they now have to account for his mid-range shooting.
Couple that change with a banner year from Courtney Lee and a deeper bench, and you've got the reasons behind an offense that currently ranks 10th in the league.
Defenses adjust, though, and it seems unlikely that Lee will continue to connect on shots from the field and long distance at a 50 percent clip forever. And the same spacing issues that have limited past Grizzlies attacks are starting to crop up on occasion, per Mike Prada of SB Nation:
"The jury is still out on whether the Grizzlies can sustain their improvement in an era where playing two traditional big men and maintaining a good offense is becoming more and more difficult. There are still possessions where the Grizzlies lack good spacing, which the new-and-improved swarming Rockets' defense exploited in Wednesday's 105-96 victory.
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Memphis is going to defend. We know that. What we can't yet be sure of is the long-term sustainability of its improved offensive attack.
Cleveland Cavaliers
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Obstacle: Defense
This is simple. The Cleveland Cavaliers, led by the theoretically unstoppable offensive trio of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, are going to figure out how to score at elite levels eventually. In practice, they already rank as the league's sixth-best offense, and any sustained viewing of the Cavs shows they've only scratched the surface of what should be a dominant attack.
The offense is going to be fine.
Defensively, though, there are issues.
Love cannot defend the rim, James has lost a step (or three) because of the ridiculous physical toll of four straight trips to the Finals, and Irving still presents little resistance on the perimeter. As a result, Cleveland currently ranks 18th in defensive efficiency, per NBA.com.
That's not good enough to contend for a championship, even if the offense gradually moves into top-three territory. Over the last 10 years, winning a title has required both a top-10 offense and defense, per Alberto Alvarez of The Wages of Wins Journal—with only the 2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers, who ranked 11th offensively, providing an exception to the rule.
Unless James turns back the clock, Love defends like never before and the rest of the Cavs vets—Shawn Marion and Anderson Varejao chief among them—step things up on D, the Cavaliers can't win a ring.
Chicago Bulls
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Obstacle: Derrick Rose's Identity
To this point in the season, the Chicago Bulls haven't had the Derrick Rose they need.
Oh, they've had Rose. Just not the same one that led them to the East's best record in each of his last two full seasons. This version of Rose is a 25-minutes-per-game player using up 44 percent of his shots from long distance.
Gone are the relentless, reckless drives and defensive explosion; Rose has blocked two shots since his torn ACL in 2012.
To be fair, this version of Rose is still pretty good. The Bulls are 12-7 overall but 8-3 when the former MVP suits up. And it's still early enough that we might see Rose flash more of his old form as he gains confidence and comfort down the line.
"I think everyone has to take a step back and be patient and let him go through this process," Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters two weeks into the season. "He's going to be special again, just be patient."
Growth from Jimmy Butler and the addition of Pau Gasol make the Bulls more balanced and better overall than they've been in either of the past two years. But it feels like Chicago needs the old Rose to get over the hump.
Hopefully, Thibs' patience pays off.
