49ers vs. Raiders: Breaking Down San Francisco's Game Plan
The San Francisco 49ers will look for redemption against the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 after suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks a week ago.
At 7-5, the 49ers are still in the postseason discussion. They sit as the No. 8 seed in the NFC, trailing higher seeds—the Seahawks, Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys—by just one game.
Week 14's contest against the 1-11 Raiders figures to be the easiest challenge San Francisco will face in its remaining schedule. According to Odds Shark, the 49ers are 9.5-point favorites in this road contest. And the one-win Raiders are coming off a 52-0 drubbing at the hands of the St. Louis Rams.
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But all is not well in San Francisco.
The offense, so questionable in recent weeks, took a hit when the unit was only able to muster three points against its division rivals in Week 13. It has been a storyline plaguing the franchise almost all season—the offense underachieving while the defense does its best to hold the line.
Will this be the case against Oakland?
The 49ers have had a tendency to play down to the competition. Take San Francisco's matchups versus the New York Giants and Washington Redskins as perfect examples.
Righting the ship offensively will be a key factor in putting some sort of rhythm together for the final stretch.
The Opponent
With just one victory on the season, the Raiders have continued their elongated struggles to gain any sort of headway within the NFL. At this point, Oakland's best hopes are to secure the top draft pick next year.
But that doesn't mean this game will be taken lightly by those wearing silver and black. Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee hailed this game as the Raiders' "Super Bowl" when he appeared Wednesday morning on KNBR 680's Murph & Mac show.
The regional rivalry will fuel both sides in this event, and with nothing to lose, one can expect Oakland to do its best to thwart San Francisco's dwindling playoff hopes.
It will also feature a reunion of sorts between former 49ers cornerbacks Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers. The swirling rumors of head coach Jim Harbaugh's pending departure, as reported by ESPN's Adam Schefter (h/t ESPN Insider Mike Sando), combined with the Raiders' interest, will also fuel the discussion.
But the fact is that Oakland is not a good team.
According to StatMilk (subscription required), the Raiders offense ranks No. 32 out of 32 NFL teams with an average of just 14.7 points per game. They are also last in average rushing yards per game (72.1) and average all-purpose yards (279.4).
Oakland's passing offense isn't much better. This element ranks No. 27 in the league with an average of just 207.3 yards per contest.
Shutting down the Raiders offense shouldn't be much of a problem for the 49ers defense. Rather it will be scoring points against Oakland that could cause some concern.
The Oakland defense isn't that horrible. This unit ranks No. 16 in the league in total yards allowed per game (359.4). The Raiders do give up a lot of points and have difficulty stopping the run—as the below chart suggests—but part of this is due to their offense's ineptitude, which results in elongated stints on the field.
Yet Oakland has proved capable of upsetting good teams, even if just once. It happened against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12, and the Raiders will look to do something like this once again.
Getting Back into an Offensive Rhythm
Weeks 11 through 13 have seen a serious drought on the offensive side of the ball.
During this stretch, the 49ers were able to muster just 36 points. Their woes have been a significant concern for weeks now, but the Raiders do provide an opportunity to garner some sort of rhythm.
Much of the blame has fallen upon offensive coordinator Greg Roman. His play-calling has been under scrutiny for much of the season. Is this a run-first offense? Has it gotten too pass-happy? What exactly is this team's offensive identity?
Roman must bear a lot of the blame for what has turned into a lackluster year on the offensive side of the ball. But he isn't the only reason.
Quarterback Colin Kaepernick's apparent lack of development has also been at the forefront—an issue questioned in the video below.
Whether it be Roman, Kaepernick or the vast majority of other offensive players not playing up to par, San Francisco will need to find a way to get back on track.
Judging by the above chart, there are some similarities between the 49ers and Raiders offensively. The one advantage is that San Francisco can move the ball on the ground. Oakland has trouble stopping it.
Perhaps this means a return to the basics—a run-first approach that sets up the various play-action and read-option plays that were at the heart of what the 49ers used to do prior to this season.
But we have seen moments where San Francisco takes an entirely different approach than what was initially expected. As has been the story for much of the season, it is impossible to predict what the 49ers offense will try to do this Sunday.
Defense Doing Its Job
San Francisco hopes that its defense will not have to bail out the offense once more in Week 14.
Fortunately, there aren't too many concerns about the Raiders offense that will press the defense into overdrive.
The Raiders' No. 1 running back, Darren McFadden, is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry, which plays right into the 49ers' strength of being able to stop the run. San Francisco ranks No. 8 in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed (1,179).
But what has been a pleasant surprise is the resurgence of San Francisco's pass defense. This unit ranks No. 4 in the league, having allowed just 2,501 yards through the air. Additionally, the 49ers are tied for second with 16 interceptions. Oakland quarterback Derek Carr has thrown 11 of these on the season, so there might be some opportunities for the secondary.
The Raiders have done a good job protecting Carr this season. Their 19 total sacks allowed puts them at No. 6 in fewest given up—a major difference compared to the 38 sacks to Kaepernick.
Pressure can be a game-changer. Even if the sack numbers aren't there, can we expect San Francisco's pass-rushers—linebackers Aaron Lynch and Aldon Smith combined with defensive ends Ray McDonald and Justin Smith—to assert themselves into Carr's decision-making process?
If so and if the 49ers can stop the run, Oakland will have a difficult time moving the ball. This will give San Francisco's offense a chance, no matter how grim it may seem, to generate some sort of continuity against an increasingly tired Raiders defense.
Using the Hysteria as an Advantage
Week 13's loss to Seattle was ugly. There isn't any way to get around that. From 49ers CEO Jed York's critical tweet to Harbaugh's future and beyond, signs would indicate that this is the all-time low point of 2014.
But Harbaugh and the 49ers have thrived under pressure and scrutiny before. They'll get the chance to do so again.
The offense is presented with an opportunity to redress some of the issues that plagued this unit in weeks prior. The defense can make its mark once again.
More importantly, San Francisco can use this game to assert itself as a likable contender for a playoff berth. With the season on the line—and an inferior opponent in their way—the 49ers are in position to put last week's mess behind them and move forward.
A win, especially a decisive one, would put many of the worries to rest. At least for now. More importantly, it will give San Francisco the needed momentum as it prepares for a tough test to wrap up the season.
The onus is on the 49ers to do this. Make it happen, San Francisco.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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