Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Complete Week 14 Preview for Houston
Reaching their desired destination won't be easy, but at least the path is well-defined.
Of course they'd love to have some wiggle room or room for error still, but there is something calming to me about knowing that they have to win out to make the playoffs. The pressure will be intense, sure, but at least they won't need to worry about hundreds of scenarios.
The Houston Texans could win out and still miss the playoffs, but if they reach 10-6 or even 9-7 after finishing 2-14 just last season, that would feel like a successful season to me even if they're sitting at home instead of playing in January.
Assuming that all of the current division leaders hold onto their leads in the AFC, the Texans will be in the mix with Buffalo, Miami, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Diego and Kansas City for the final two spots in the postseason—a pretty crowded field.
However, if the Texans win out, they'll own tiebreakers over three of those seven teams—Cleveland, Buffalo and Baltimore—if it comes down to a two-team scenario. In the case of a three-team or more tiebreaker, conference record is used, and their mark of 9-3 would likely fare well.
A 9-3 record in conference would be better than what Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore or Cleveland could post since they all have at least four losses in conference already.
The other three teams in the mix—Miami, Pittsburgh and San Diego—all have three losses in conference like the Texans, so the best they could do is tie Houston and send it to the next tiebreaker, which is record among common opponents.
My guess is the Texans will lose next week at Indianapolis and make all of this conversation over playoff scenarios a moot point, but it's fun to wonder about "what if."
Houston Texans Week 13 Recap
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Records were dropping like flies at NRG Stadium last week, as the Texans crushed their division rivals from Tennessee.
Not a lot to break down from the game to show how they won because the Titans were just completely noncompetitive and never in the game. Things came so easily for the Texans, it almost felt like the Titans were still playing with a preseason intensity or that they had collectively quit on the season.
What is worth looking at, though, are some of the eye-popping numbers from the blowout of Houston's former team.
Former Titans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick stuck it to his former team by passing for a season-high 358 yards and throwing a team-record six touchdown passes—one short of the NFL record.
Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins broke out with the best game of his career to help out his quarterback. The second-year player had nine receptions on nine targets for 238 yards and two touchdowns. It really seems like Hopkins is ready to step into the role of a No. 1 receiver.
Arian Foster didn't carry the team on his back like he did in the first game against Tennessee this season, but the veteran running back did have a very solid game. Foster had 105 total yards—with five receptions—and one touchdown.
"This route by Arian is great. Into the defender and accelerate out of is break to creat space. #Texans https://t.co/67mnv8XtFP
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 3, 2014"
J.J. Watt continued to make his case for MVP—though I'm convinced that Aaron Rodgers will ultimately win the award—with another huge performance.
"Watt just too much for the Titans tackles. #Texans https://t.co/7NwumXIi25
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 3, 2014"
The soon-to-be two-time defensive player of the year had two sacks, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and yet another offensive touchdown.
"J.J. Watt's Sacks (11.5) + knockdowns (43) + pressures (59) total is 113.5. The next closest is Everson Griffen at 65 (11-23-31).
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 3, 2014"
The touchdown came when Watt—an interior defensive lineman—lined up in the slot and caught a quick out route from Fitzpatrick.
I said it once after his touchdown catch against Cleveland, but it's worth repeating: He's being lined up and used like an experienced wide receiver—and he's an interior defensive lineman! His last two catches weren't off play action with him standing alone in the end zone; he's beating defenders as a receiver.
"Well. This is kinda impressive. #Texans https://t.co/sAEySU5p8T
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 3, 2014"
Watt is just incredible.
The Texans defense came away with four more turnovers against Tennessee—three interceptions to go along with the strip-sack by Watt.
Currently, the Texans are tied for fourth in interceptions and lead the league with 13 fumble recoveries off the 14 they've forced. Not surprisingly by those rankings, the Texans also lead the league in turnovers forced per game at 2.3 and rank second behind Green Bay in turnover margin per game.
"Bouye reading Locker the entire time. #Texans https://t.co/Ls4Icy7cj2
— PDS (@PatDStat) December 3, 2014"
It's a lot easier to win games when you're winning the turnover battle every week; the Texans were plus-three last week against Tennessee.
News and Notes
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Ryan Fitzpatrick Named AFC Offensive Player of the Week
Not a shocking bit of news after Fitzpatrick set the team record and came within one of tying the NFL record for touchdown passes in a single game with his six against the Tennessee Titans last week. He also became only the ninth quarterback in NFL history to throw for six touchdowns with no interceptions.
Fitzpatrick also threw for a season-high 358 yards in the victory, his highest total since September 2011.
"#Texans' Ryan Fitzpatrick won AFC offensive player of the week almost a month to the date he was benched for Ryan Mallett. Resilient QB.
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) December 3, 2014"
Fitzpatrick joins Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton and Arian Foster as only the fifth Texans player to win the award.
Jaguars Defensive Tackle Sen'Derrick Marks Wants to Be the Best No. 99 on the Field Sunday
"Told Jaguars' Sen'Derrick Marks wants to be the best 99 on Sunday, Watt said he'd hope he thinks that way. Called Marks underrated. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 3, 2014"
Good luck with that, Mr. Marks.
I respect his confidence, and he has played very well this season, but he can't touch the production and performance of J.J. Watt.
Jadeveon Clowney Put on Injured Reserve After Meeting with Dr. James Andrews
"O'Brien confirms Jadeveon Clowney is with Dr. Andrews today to gather more information on his knee. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 3, 2014 "
""This guy's been injured, and it's time to clean it up and get him back to feeling good," O'Brien says of Clowney. #Texans
— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) December 4, 2014"
Whenever I hear the phrase, "...is meeting with Dr. James Andrews," I automatically cringe and assume the worst. According to John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, Clowney said his knee is still swelling up from the surgery he had back in September, so it seems like either he came back too soon or possibly that the surgery wasn't a success.
Neither option is a good one obviously.
There's a difference between playing hurt and playing through an injury, and Clowney seems like he is legitimately still injured. I'm as disappointed as everyone else, but if your knee is swelling up to the point where you have no power or agility in that leg, then you can't play, and that's not his fault.
While I share the same feeling of disappointment as most fans do with Clowney's rookie season, putting him on IR was the right call. He probably wasn't going to play this week anyway, so why rush him back for three games on a team that likely isn't going to the playoffs anyway?
Let him have the surgery—hopefully done by a better surgeon this time—and get the proper rest and healing time required over the offseason. Then, he can put all his effort into his comeback. Hopefully, the disappointment of this season and the need to prove himself will put a massive chip on Clowney's shoulder this offseason.
Injury Report
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| Jadeveon Clowney | Knee | Out - IR |
| Ryan Pickett | Back | Questionable |
| Shane Lechler | Bicep | Questionable |
| Garrett Graham | Ankle | Questionable |
| Johnathan Joseph | Achilles | Questionable |
| Danieal Manning | Hamstring | Questionable |
| Brian Cushing | Knee | Questionable |
| Arian Foster | Groin | Questionable |
| Akeem Dent | Neck | Questionable |
| Kareem Jackson | Knee | Questionable |
| Derek Newton | Knee | Probable |
| Tyson Clabo | Foot | Probable |
| Jeff Tarpinian | Knee | Probable |
| Jonathan Grimes | Ankle | Probable |
Source: Pro Football Reference
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Stopping Denard Robinson
The former college quarterback has been the Jaguars' only reliable weapon recently with his emergence as a running back. Robinson's production has dropped off over the last two weeks, but over the previous four games after being given a starter's carries, he averaged 97.25 yards per game and scored four touchdowns.
The Jaguars haven't used him as such, but just going off his great athletic ability, he could be a great receiving back for them as well—an issue that the Texans defense has struggled with in the past.
Given his past experience as a quarterback and the fact that it has nothing to lose with a record of 2-10, don't be surprised if Jacksonville pulls out a few trick plays with Robinson throwing the ball on a halfback pass or off a reverse.
There hasn't been much to fear from the Jaguars offense with Blake Bortles under center, so if the Texans can shut down Robinson's run game and make them one-dimensional, then the starters could have most of the fourth quarter off again this week with the game well in hand.
Blocking Chris Clemons and Sen'Derrick Marks
Jacksonville's defense obviously hasn't stopped or even slowed down many opponents this season, but they do have a pair of pass-rushers who could cause issues for the Texans offensive line.
Chris Clemons—part of the Seattle Seahawks' championship team last year—and Sen'Derrick Marks are tied for the team lead in sacks this season with seven a piece while Marks leads the team in tackles for loss with 12.
With Derek Newton a little banged up, don't be surprised if the Jaguars line Clemons up across from him—or whoever starts at right tackle—all game long to try to exploit that matchup.
A similar matchup could end up in the Jaguars' favor with Marks lined up across from either Ben Jones or Xavier Su'a-Filo at left guard, as they have been the weakest links on the offensive line this season.
"J.D. Walton earned the 2nd-lowest @PFF grade of any C last week. Whipped by Sen'Derrick Marks here: #Giants https://t.co/MOiXFT1AdV
— Pete Damilatis (@PFF_Pete) December 3, 2014"
The only reason I can envision as to why the Texans could lose this game is turnovers, which are, of course, the great equalizer. One way for the Jaguars to cause turnovers would be for Marks and Clemons to hit and hurry Fitzpatrick in the pocket.
Not to state the obvious, but protecting Ryan Fitzpatrick will be key to their success.
X-Factor of the Week: Brooks Reed
The former second-round pick hasn't made much of an impact as a pass-rusher once again this season, but he does play an important role in the run defense.
With either Whitney Mercilus or Jadeveon Clowney—whenever he's actually healthy—being asked to be their primary edge-rusher from the outside linebacker position, the role of setting the edge against the run and picking up backs who go out into a route typically falls on the shoulders of Reed.
Facing a speedy back like Robinson this week, setting the edge to funnel everything back inside where big guys like J.J. Watt, Ryan Pickett and Brian Cushing can clean things up and make the play will be crucial.
Executing that job has been one thing that Reed has excelled at recently.
"Brooks Reed makes this plays. Keeps the FB off of him. Watt cleans up. #Texans https://t.co/BlqlX7VamX
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 19, 2014 "
"James Casey has to bring more than this with Brooks Reed. Reed makes a good play here. #Texans https://t.co/KaofvmBcKi
— PDS (@PatDStat) November 5, 2014"
If you let Robinson get to the edge with his speed and ability in the open field, he's capable of taking it to the house for six points in a flash. How well Reed sets the edge to prevent that and also picks him up in coverage occasionally will be an important factor to watch.
Prediction
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The Jacksonville Jaguars are a terrible football team.
While taking possible consideration from the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Oakland Raiders, the Jaguars might be the worst team in the entire NFL.
Stats can sometimes be deceiving depending on the context in which they are presented, but in the case of the Jaguars, they do a pretty good job of representing their performance this season.
Jacksonville just isn't losing; it's getting blown out in nearly every game. It has a point differential of minus-12 per game.
That differential, of course, takes into account the Jaguars' two wins. In only their defeats, the point differential is minus-16.2 per game—close to three possessions!
Both sides of the ball have been nearly equally inept in leading to their failure this season, as the team ranks 31st in both points and yards gained on offense as well as 28th and 26th in points and yards allowed on defense, respectively.
Leading the way for their 31st-ranked offense has been the third overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft—still glad the Texans didn't waste a pick on him—Blake Bortles. In 10 starts so far, the rookie has thrown nine touchdowns to 15 interceptions.
Three years from now, we may be saying that they wasted the pick on Jadeveon Clowney also, but I'm much more confident that he'll find a way to turn it around than Bortles.
Bortles has thrown a pick in every game except one—last week's win over the Giants—and has only thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in two of his 10 starts this season. Dare I say the Texans will have an advantage at quarterback this week?
It is worth noting that the Jaguars' only two wins this season were at home, which is where they'll play the Texans this week, but who do they have to slow down Arian Foster or DeAndre Hopkins? Who on their roster can block J.J. Watt?
The Texans are closer to being an average team than a good team, but they should have more than enough to win comfortably over the Jaguars.
Prediction: Texans 27, Jaguars 13
Follow me on Twitter for more opinion on the Texans & tweets during the game: @sackedbybmac
Big thanks to @PatDStat from State of the Texans for the Vine video breakdowns. If you're not following him already, you're missing out.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
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