San Francisco 49ers: An Overly Premature 2015 NFL Draft Big Board

A San Francisco 49ers 2015 NFL draft big board?  It’s officially way too early to do this, considering the 49ers are still very much in the playoff race, albeit fading.  Between now and draft day on July 17, the needs of the team and individual players’ draft stocks will vary tremendously.  It’s very likely that I’ll look at this list in July and shake my head at how early it was.

However, with the draft picture clarifying itself somewhat, we can start to make some educated guesses at team priorities.  We might as well take a look now, because the college football season is building to a crescendo—the various conference championship games are this weekend, and then we have bowl season coming up.

Had we known Jimmie Ward was going to be the 49ers’ first pick last season, 49ers fans would have tuned into the MAC Championship Game against Bowling Green and the Poinsetta Bowl against Utah State for a chance to see their new safety.  By providing this list this early, it might give fans an idea of who they should be looking for—especially if they don’t normally pay attention to the college football schedule.

Mathematically, the 49ers can still draft anywhere between the fifth and 32nd pick in the draft.  Realistically, we’re either looking at somewhere between the 14th and 20th picks or a playoff draft slot, with the smart money being one of the last four selections.  As it stands right now, they would be picking 19th.

Like last year, this is a team-specific big board, adjusted for the specific needs of the San Francisco 49ers.

For example, Melvin Gordon, the running back from Wisconsin who set the single-game rushing record earlier this year, might get taken in the first round by someone.  The 49ers, on the other hand, have no need for a starting running back, so he’d be significantly lower on their big board.  The idea is that, when the 49ers get on the clock, they’d take the highest player left on the board.

This early, we’re not overly concerned with team needs.  They will change dramatically with free agency and the like, so there’s no sense in putting too much emphasis on anything at this point. 

Take wide receiver, for instance—the 49ers might re-sign Michael Crabtree or let him walk and sign someone else or simply stick with Anquan Boldin and Stevie Johnson as the presumed starters.  Each scenario changes how the 49ers would value receivers.

You also don’t want to over-value team needs.  Yes, the 49ers don’t need a running back, but if they somehow knew 1989 Barry Sanders was available at their pick, they’d be crazy not to take him.  You have to balance team needs and overall talent to really judge a draft class.

With that in mind, here are the top 32 players in this draft class at the moment from San Francisco’s point of view.  They are ranked in the order in which I believe the 49ers would take them if all players were available.  Then, we’ll go position-by-position and see which players might fall into San Francisco’s range, which would be in range to trade for and which are just likely out of reach.

Big Board

Because the 49ers could still win the Super Bowl, we have to do a full, 32-man big board to cover all possibilities.  That way, in the worst-case draft scenario, there would still be at least one of these players on the clock when the 49ers go to draft.

1. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
2. Leonard Williams, DE, USC
3. DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
4. Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5. Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
6. Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
7. Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
8. Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
9. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
10. Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
11. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
12. Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford
13. A.J. Cann, OG, South Carolina
14. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
15. Dante Fowler Jr, DE/OLB, Florida
16. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon
17. Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
18. Rashad Greene, WR, Florida State
19. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
20. Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
21. Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
22. Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
23. Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
24. Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
25. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
26. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
27. Austin Hill, WR, Arizona
28. Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State
29. Mike Bennett, DT, Ohio State
30. La’el Collins, OT, LSU
31. Trey Flowers, DE, Arkansas
32. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

Quarterbacks

11. Marcus Mariota, Oregon
17. Jameis Winston, Florida State

Yes, technically, the 49ers could cut or trade Colin Kaepernick this offseason.  He has a cap hit of about $17.3 million, according to Spotrac, while the dead money for releasing him would “only” be about $10 million.

It would be an excessively silly thing to do, however.  Kaepernick has put together a pair of ugly performances this year—the losses to St. Louis and Seattle were just brutal from the quarterback position—but he is showing signs of progress overall.  He’s not exactly a Jay Cutler or a Derek Carr out there, and he’s still the second-best quarterback in the division.

Add in the fact that he was just signed to his mega-extension last year, and the fact that the 49ers have no other quarterbacks signed next season, and you see that going into 2015 without Kaepernick penciled in as the starter is a silly proposition. 

If the Seattle game indicates the beginning of a total regression, and he plays badly next year as well, then you can move on—but the 49ers, as an organization, have made a commitment to Kaepernick, and they have to see that through.

Also, he’s not nearly as bad as his critics are saying right now—remember, he threw for a touchdown in 18 consecutive starts leading up to the Seattle game, tying a franchise record.  Anytime you tie a passing record on a team that has had Joe Montana and Steve Young and Y.A. Tittle and John Brodie, you’re doing something right.

All that being said, if Mariota or Winston were to fall into San Francisco’s lap, it’d have to consider it, at the very least.  No longer do you have to give rookie quarterbacks exorbitant contracts, so it remains in the realm of possibility that a team could take a first-round backup.

That being said, the top two quarterbacks are not going to fall to the 49ers, and even if they did, the 49ers would likely trade the pick to fill more needs.  The 49ers will add a quarterback this offseason, but it won’t be in the first round of the draft.

Wide Receivers

1. Amari Cooper, Alabama
3. DeVante Parker, Louisville
4. Kevin White, West Virginia
6. Devin Funchess, Michigan
8. Jaelen Strong, Arizona State
12. Ty Montgomery, Stanford
18. Rashad Greene, Florida State
22. Nelson Agholor, USC
27. Austin Hill, Arizona

If I had to pick the position the 49ers would take in the first round in this year’s draft, and they had to pick right now, I would have to say wide receiver.   

Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd’s contracts expire at the end of this season, and who knows if either will be back.  Anquan Boldin’s playing great, but he’ll be 35 years old next season.  That leaves Stevie Johnson and relatively unknown quantities such as Quinton Patton and Bruce Ellington as long-term options at the position.

If—and I don’t think this will happen—the 49ers were to trade Jim Harbaugh to the Oakland Raiders and get, in return, the No. 1 overall pick, I think they’d take Amari Cooper, the stud receiver from Alabama.  Actually, I think they would trade down two or three slots and try to still take Cooper, but the point stands—he’s the top player in this draft class for the 49ers.

Cooper makes spectacular catches look routine, and he has great awareness of zones to always be open.  He’s quick off the line, with some explosiveness.  He’s not the fastest player in the world, and he's not the largest, but he does everything well, and that’s a heck of a weapon to have.

Assuming, however, the 49ers pick where they naturally will end up, they’re not getting Cooper, or probably not getting any of the top three receivers.  In that case, Devin Funchess out of Michigan is a very interesting prospect.

Funchess fits in the middle ground between receiver and tight end.  That means he could potentially be a replacement for Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree, and that’s some nice positional flexibility there.  He’s big, with the possibility of adding more muscle as well and would have elite pass-catching ability for a tight end.  He’s one to stick a pin in and watch.

Offensive Line

David Stephenson/Associated Press

13. A.J. Cann, OG, South Carolina
24. Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
26. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
30. La’El Collins, OT, LSU
32. T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

This is a good draft if you happen to need an offensive tackle.  It just so happens, however, that the 49ers don’t need an offensive tackle, as both Joe Staley and Anthony Davis are signed through 2020.  It might be nice to have a young player to groom behind Staley, who is beginning to get up there in years, but that doesn’t seem like the best use of a first-round pick.

Besides, you’ll note all four tackles are ranked below 20 on the list—if the 49ers don’t make the playoffs, there will be plenty of other needs to take care of, and I don’t think they’d consider any of them.  Maybe one falls to the second round, and the 49ers could pick up some depth there, but perhaps not.

Guard, on the other hand, is a more interesting scenario:

• Mike Iupati, of whom it must be said has bounced back very well from an awkward start to the season, is a free agent.
• Alex Boone held out at the beginning of training camp and has generally underperformed this year, though he’s been getting better as his rust has been knocked off.
• Brandon Thomas, who the 49ers picked in the third round last season, is another redshirt pick—a player injured in college whom the 49ers picked and stashed.  We’ve seen from the cases of Marcus Lattimore and Tank Carradine the potential risks in that situation.

If the 49ers don’t take anyone in the draft at guard and don’t resign Iupati, they could cobble together guards from Boone, Thomas, and either Marcus Martin or Daniel Kilgore and be alright.  It is uncertain enough, though, that a draft pick could possibly be used to shore up the situation.

The one guard whom I feel might be worth a first-round pick at this point is A.J. Cann from South Carolina.  Cann has all the intangibles you would want—a leader with strong work ethic and all of that—and has quite a bit of power.  He has great leverage, able to absorb power rushes and drive pass-rushers back.  He fits best in a power-blocking scheme like the 49ers use, so he’s a good match for this offense.

Defensive Ends

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

2. Leonard Williams, USC
28. Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State
31. Trey Flowers, Arkansas

There aren’t too many traditional 3-4 defensive ends available at the top of this year’s draft class.  Both Calhoun and Flowers are more suited for a 4-3 defensive end role, so a projection into San Francisco’s defense is questionable, at best.  They also don’t look like the sort of players who could easily transition into a 3-4 outside linebacker position, so they’re at the bottom of the big board—very good players without an obvious role in the defense.

Leonard Williams is another story.  He’s the closest thing to a consensus top prospect in the draft at the moment and would be perfect as a 5-technique in a 3-4 system—that’s lining up just outside the offensive tackles, like Justin Smith and Ray McDonald do.

He’s got a great motor and fantastic instincts, and projects as a massive run-stopper in the NFL.  His combination of size, athleticism and power just isn’t something you can teach. 

The need at defensive end isn’t super strong for the 49ers—Smith and McDonald are getting up there, but each is under contract for at least one more year—but Williams is the kind of talent where, if the 49ers saw him sitting there on draft day, they’d have to take him.

Defensive Tackles

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

9. Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
14. Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
29. Mike Bennett, DT, Ohio State

Like at the defensive end position, two of these three players may not be able to handle nose tackle duties in a 3-4.  Both Goldman and Bennett are better suited for a 4-3 defensive tackle position at first blush, though either might be able to be converted if the 49ers are high enough on them.

Shelton, on the other hand, fits perfectly as a nose tackle.  At 6’2”, 332 pounds, Shelton is essentially a tree trunk that you can stick in the center of your line to clog up opponents’ running lanes.  He’s not the type of player who’s going to plow through the line and stop players in the backfield, but he’ll prevent blockers from getting to your inside linebackers—and do the 49ers ever have some elite inside linebackers.

The need is dependent on how Ian Williams and Glenn Dorsey recover from their various injuries—I’d definitely start Shelton over Quinton Dial, but the other two are very solid players who are signed through at least 2016. 

We expected Dorsey to be back already, but his recovery has slowed down some, and of course Williams just re-injured himself a few weeks ago.  If both are healthy for 2015, the need at tackle drops dramatically—but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Outside Linebacker

David Goldman/Associated Press

5. Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
7. Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
10. Leonard Floyd, OLB, Georgia
15. Dante Fowler Jr, DE/OLB, Florida
20. Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
23. Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington

These players fall into four categories. 

You have two players who are 4-3 defensive ends but who could fairly easily be converted into 3-4 outside linebackers: Gregory and Ray.  You have a 3-4 outside linebacker who could still be taken by a 4-3 defense and moved onto the line in Fowler.  You have two 3-4 outside linebackers who need to stick there in Floyd and Beasley. 

Finally, you have a 4-3 outside linebacker who would best remain in a 4-3 system in Thompson.

So, this is a pretty solid draft for pass-rushers, but do the 49ers need an outside linebacker?  The answer to this question is “maybe”, which shows the problem with doing this article in the middle of a season.

The 49ers struggled to get much of a pass rush until Aldon Smith returned a few weeks ago.  While Smith has been out of the news since his suspension, the ownership still has to be a little nervous that he’ll have another incident and miss an entire season.  While Aaron Lynch looks like a real keeper, he’s only carried the majority of the workload for two games, and asking him to be an every-down starter is a big load right off the bat.

Then you have Ahmad Brooks.  As it stands right now, Brooks and Smith stand to have the second- and third-highest cap hits for 2015, according to Spotrac.  In fact, when you add in Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman, that’s four linebackers in the top five.

That doesn’t seem healthy for a long-term salary structure, plus you have Lynch and Chris Borland chomping at the bit behind them.  I’m betting that one of those four linebackers will not be back next season.  But which one? 

Bowman’s contract is too large at this point; trading him would only save the 49ers $388,000 against the 2015 cap, so he’s out.  Aldon Smith is a prime target to have his contract renegotiated and extended, so it’s not likely to be him, either.

That leaves Ahmad Brooks and Patrick Willis. Getting rid of Willis would save the 49ers more money, but I’m not sure anyone’s ready to see the leader and heart and soul of the defense leave town.  That just leaves us with Brooks, who would save the 49ers more than $6.6 million if he was let go or traded. 

He did have that issue against the New York Giants where he took himself out of the game, and while they say everything is fine now, that raises eyebrows.

If Brooks does get traded or released, I could see the 49ers using a pick on his replacement.

Defensive Backs

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

16. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon
19. Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
21. Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
25. Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

I think it’s safe to say that the 49ers secondary has held up better than expected this season, especially factoring in the loss of Tramaine Brock for all but three games and Jimmie Ward’s season-ending injury.

Antoine Bethea has been stellar, and Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox have stepped up nicely as well, though Cox has begun to wear down as the season has gone along.  Rookie Dontae Johnson has also flashed impressive skills to boot.

Culliver, Cox and Chris Cook are all free agents this offseason, and Bethea’s getting up there in years.  Adding another talented body to the secondary would not be the worst idea in the world.

I like almost everything about Ifo Ekpre-Olomu except his name, which I would dread having to learn to spell.  He’s a bit on the short side at only 5’9”, which is a problem and why he’s only 16th on the list.

Other than that, though, Ekpre-Olomu has amazing cover skills—the best in the entire draft class and the best I’ve seen for a while.  He’s got a burst which jumps out at you on tape, and he can handle himself in man-on-man coverage.  He’s also very physical, despite his small frame, coming up to assist in run defense.

Maybe he’s best suited as a nickel corner in the pros, due to his lack of size, but he’d be a very, very good one.  He also has skills with the ball in his hands.  While cornerback is not the 49ers’ most pressing concern, especially if they re-sign a couple of their free agents, I wouldn’t be shocked to see them grab Ekpre-Olomu.  It might be more likely, though, if they take him early in the second round if he slips some.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.