San Francisco 49ers: How They Can Still Make the NFL Playoffs

In the cold light of day in the aftermath of the shellacking at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksigiving night, the San Francisco 49ers had Sunday off to reevaluate their playoff chances, such as they are.

There’s been a lot of talk, in the aftermath of that loss, about how to move on to 2015—will Jim Harbaugh still be in town, will Greg Roman be looking for a new job, and what will Colin Kaepernick’s role be. 

These are all very valid questions—to which my current answers are yes, yes, and starting quarterback for the 49ers—but they’re at least one-week premature.  The 49ers aren’t the Chicago Bears or the Minnesota Vikings; they’re both mathematically alive and realistically alive for the playoffs in 2014.

LM Otero/Associated Press

First, the good news.  The 49ers are absolutely still in the race, albeit at the bottom of the legitimate contenders.  At 7-5, they’re still only one game out of the wild-card slot, and they still own the tiebreakers over the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles.  They also have shots at taking the tiebreaker over the Arizona Cardinals—they’re certainly not dead in the water yet.

They also have one extremely easy matchup in the Oakland Raiders, which is the easiest game remaining for any of the NFC contenders.  They have no road trips out of the Pacific Time Zone, which will do wonders for their rest, and they still have one of the top defenses in football.

Now the bad news.  Most years, you could see the 49ers splitting the rest of their games, getting to 9-7, and sneaking into the playoffs.  Once you’re in, anything can happen, so that’d still be a positive scenario.  Unfortunately, the NFC is incredibly top-heavy this season, and it would not be too shocking if a 10-win team ended up staying at home this year.

Secondly, the 49ers’ hardest two games left are their most important ones.  The loss to Seattle at home means any truly realistic playoff road likely involves beating Seattle in Seattle, which the 49ers have only managed to do once since 2009.  After the awful performance on Thursday, fans can be excused for not feeling too confident about that matchup.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Even worse, the Seahawks’ resurgence might make the 49ers’ Week 17 game harder.  Arizona might well have to play that one for real, rather than resting starters, in an attempt to ensure the division title.  That’s not ideal for the 49ers, either.

Both of those games are much more important than the ones against the Raiders and San Diego Chargers because they count for the divisional and conference tiebreakers.  If you’re going to lose a game, it’s much better for your playoff hopes to do it against a team in the opposite conference.

So, how does that break down?  I decided to look at every combination of wins and losses and see what the 49ers’ chances would be.  You can select your level of optimism or pessimism and find out if the 49ers have a realistic path or not.

4-0

If the 49ers go undefeated, they’re making the playoffs.  That’s not a mathematical certainty—there are scenarios where an 11-5 49ers team sits on the couch come January—but I’d go out on a limb and say that they’d definitely be playoff-bound.

It’d be quite the narrative, too—the 49ers coming back, beating the Seahawks in Seattle and winning a likely must-win game against Arizona on the last day of the season to get into the playoffs, with a road trip to New Orleans or Atlanta being their reward.  That would seem to be enough to definitely save Jim Harbaugh’s job, if you believe ESPN's Adam Schefter’s reports.

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

I mentioned there are scenarios that would keep the 49ers out if they go 11-5, so the 49ers would have to avoid getting unlucky.  The most likely scenario involves Detroit, Seattle and Dallas each losing at least one more game apiece.  As Detroit has to travel to Green Bay and Seattle and Dallas have to travel to Philadelphia, that seems OK.

Why do the 49ers need all three teams to lose a game?  It’s because of that loss to Seattle.  If the 49ers tie with the Seahawks at 11-5, Seattle will win the tiebreaker based on the divisional record.  Therefore, they need the Seahawks to drop to 10-6 to ensure a playoff spot. 

A three-way-tie between San Francisco, Detroit and Dallas at 11-5 would see Detroit go through first, thanks to their 9-3 conference record and only then San Francisco would go through, thanks to the Week 1 head-to-head victory.  If Seattle finishes ahead of the 49ers, two spots are not there to give.

Another possibility would be a continued collapse by the Arizona Cardinals.  If they were to lose two other games besides the 49ers—St. Louis and Seattle, perhaps?—they would finish 10-6, behind the 49ers.

In that case, either the Seahawks would lose an extra game and finish behind the 49ers, or the Dallas/Philadelphia loser would finish at 10-6 or worse—this is because the Eagles have to play the Seahawks still.  Either way, it would see the 49ers into the playoffs.

To make a long story short, 4-0 provides the 49ers with tons of paths to the postseason.

3-1

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

I think we can all agree—if the 49ers are going to finish 3-1, they’re probably going to lose to Seattle in Seattle in Week 15.  A loss to either of the two NFC teams knocks the 49ers down to about a 25 percent shot of making the playoffs, while a loss to either of the two AFC teams would keep the 49ers at about 60 percent favorites to make it.  That’s the importance of tiebreakers this late in the season.

Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that the 49ers do lose to Seattle, but they beat everyone else to finish 10-6.  This isn’t great, because they would need two teams ahead of them to collapse in order for them to make the playoffs as the sixth seed.

One of those teams will likely have to be Detroit.  They have tough road games against Chicago and Green Bay to end the season, so that’s two losses, but that wouldn’t be enough—remember, Detroit beats the 49ers, thanks to their superior conference record in most scenarios.  That would mean the Lions would have to lose to either Tampa Bay or Minnesota to slip behind the 49ers.

As for the other team, you’re probably talking about the Philadelphia/Dallas loser or Seattle—and I actually think Seattle’s the more realistic option.  They have to play the Eagles and Cardinals on the road, and they get the St. Louis Rams, who have played everyone tough this year. 

It’s obviously not likely, but I could see them going 1-3 the rest of the way, only beating the 49ers.  That would be enough for the 49ers to slip past them and take that second playoff slot.

2-2

This is the really difficult scenario to determine, as there are six different combinations of wins and losses that could get the 49ers here.  As a rough guide, with the help of Pro-Football Forecast (software download required), here are the 49ers’ postseason odds with each combination of wins and losses.  Find the first win you want in the top row, and the second win in the left column, and that will give you the rough percentage of them making the playoffs:

Wins	@ Oakland	@ Seattle	v. San Diego	v. Arizona
@ Oakland	X	5.3%	0.5%	5.8%
@ Seattle	5.3%	X	5.4%	22.1%
v. San Diego	0.5%	5.4%	X	7.9%
v. Arizona	5.8%	22.1%	7.9%	X

Two wins against the AFC teams makes the 49ers essentially eliminated.  Two wins against the NFC teams gives them about a 1 in 4 chance of slipping through.  It’s too bad it’s more likely that they’ll beat the AFC teams rather than the NFC ones—that’s the effect of tiebreakers this late in the season.

Let’s say, for a moment, that the 49ers just beat the Raiders and the Chargers.  What would need to happen for them to make the playoffs then?

• Detroit would have to lose all four games from here on out.  They’d win a tiebreaker over the 49ers at 9-7, thanks to the common-games tiebreaker—more reasons why that Week 2 loss to the Bears hurts.
• Dallas would have to lose three out of four games to finish tied with the 49ers—likely against Indianapolis, Chicago and Philadelphia.  The 49ers would win that tiebreaker, thanks to the Week 1 victory.
• Now, though, we have a problem.  We’ve given the Bears two wins in this scenario—over Detroit and Dallas.  That gets them to 7-7, and they have the tiebreaker over the 49ers.  We’d need them to lose at least one more game, either versus New Orleans or at Minnesota.
• If we make it Minnesota, that’s a problem as well, because now they’re sitting at 7-7 and could beat the 49ers, thanks to the divisional tiebreaker.  Thus, we’d need a loss for the Vikings versus the New York Jets or at Miami.
• Finally, we’d need one loss by the Rams, because they only have seven losses themselves, and would win the division tiebreaker over the 49ers.  That’s how bad a 2-2 finish would be—the 49ers would be in danger of being caught by the Rams.

Suffice it to say, a 2-2 record is not great for San Francisco’s playoff hopes.

1-3

If the 49ers only win one more game, they’re not making the playoffs.  If that win is against an AFC team, they’re mathematically eliminated.  If it’s against the Seahawks or Cardinals, there does exist an arcane and unlikely set of results that would see the 49ers through; something on the order of a 1-500 chance.  An 8-8 team just isn’t making the playoffs in the NFC in anything approaching a realistic scenario.

0-4

The 49ers would be mathematically eliminated at this point.  Jim Harbaugh would be likely traded to the Raiders or the Jets, and the process of rebuilding would begin.

The 49ers aren’t dead yet in 2014, but they do not have anything resembling a margin for error anymore.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.