Is 2014-15 the Year Oklahoma City Thunder Finally Take a Step Back?
The Oklahoma City Thunder can do everything in their power to fight against the odds, but they are battling a numbers game nearly impossible to win.
Championship hopes are rarely dashed in early November, but Oklahoma City's may be an exception to the rule. With barely enough bodies left to play an NBA game—let alone win one—the Thunder are running out of gas at a time most teams have yet to even rev up their engines.
Oklahoma City's chances of building on a three-year run with winning percentages above .700 are already extinguished. This is no longer a matter of whether the Thunder will regress in 2014-15, but rather a question of just how far the mighty will fall.
Decimated By Injury
The Thunder's first sign of trouble this season should have hit the basketball world with the force of a head-on collision. Reigning MVP Kevin Durant suffered a fracture in his right foot, putting the perennial contenders into an obviously precarious situation.
But the injury was never viewed through that lens. Rather, it was seen as an opportunity for the team to grow without him, ideally fortifying the ranks around him before his eventual return.
Even Durant himself saw the potential perks of temporarily being missing in action.
"I'm looking at the positive side of it," he said, per ESPN.com's Royce Young. "It's a win-win, basically, because I'm learning a lot while I'm out about the game, and my teammates are getting lots of opportunities because there are a lot of minutes out there to help the team."
There was only one problem with the plan—the injury bug didn't stop at Durant. Instead, it tore through OKC's ranks like a swarm of starving grasshoppers wreaking havoc on a garden.
At this point, it's easier to keep track of the dwindling number of Thunder players who have avoided the injury report, as Young noted:
Missing Durant, Russell Westbrook (hand fracture), 2014 first-rounder Mitch McGary (foot fracture), Anthony Morrow (sprained MCL), Jeremy Lamb (back), Grant Jarrett (ankle) and Andre Roberson (sprained foot), the Thunder entered Tuesday's game against the Toronto Raptors with eight available bodies. More concerning, OKC had just one win to show for in its first four contests.
One of those numbers changed during the game, and it was not the one Thunder fans would have liked. In the midst of their 100-88 loss to the Raptors, they lost yet another player to injury.
This time it was Perry Jones, a third-year forward who had seemed on the verge of a breakout after totaling 71 points on 53.2 percent shooting over his last three outings. A third-quarter collision with Raptors forward Patrick Patterson left Jones sprawled out on the floor, clutching his right knee.
"The team is calling it a right knee contusion, which would suggest he's day to day, but at this point, who even knows," Young wrote. "Hope for the best, expect the worst, and all that stuff."
As scoring guard Reggie Jackson observed after the game, per The Oklahoman's Darnell Mayberry, OKC's worst-case scenario start keeps finding ways to get even worse:
"Every year there is one team that the basketball gods just hammer with injuries," CBS Sports' Matt Moore wrote. "...The Thunder have been pounded so far into the ground you can't even see them anymore."
At the very least, what one can see is almost impossible to recognize.
Thunder coach Scott Brooks has been forced to play cards he never even knew were in his hand. Of his team's seven healthy-ish players—Jackson has battled a wrist problem and is clearly not 100 percent—two are point guards (Jackson and Sebastian Telfair) and the other five are bigs (Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison, Lance Thomas, Steven Adams and Kendrick Perkins).
That has led OKC to some interesting lineups and hardly any production. The Thunder currently sit 26th in offensive efficiency and 24th at the opposite side. Their .200 winning percentage is the second-lowest in the Western Conference.
As incredibly talented as Durant and Westbrook are, there will only be so much they can do whenever they return to the floor. If OKC digs too deep a hole without them, this season could be lost without ever really getting started.
Frightening Depth Out West
When Durant dropped out of the equation, ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton (subscription required) projected the MVP's absence would cost the Thunder two or three wins.
That may not sound like much, but it's enough to hold major implications in this congested conference. Last season, three wins separated the third-seeded Los Angeles Clippers from the fifth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers. The same gap stood between the sixth-seeded Golden State Warriors and the ninth-seeded Phoenix Suns, who missed the playoffs despite rattling off 48 wins during the regular season.
So, yes, three wins can have a significant impact on postseason positioning. And the Thunder are at serious risk of losing much more ground than that with so many players having since joined Durant on the sideline.
When (if?) OKC gets back to full strength, it could be holding a record that stomps out any dream of a miraculous turnaround.
"It's not hard to imagine it at something like 8-17 when the stars come back," Grantland's Zach Lowe wrote of OKC's record. "The math from there is daunting. Oklahoma City would have to go 41-16 just to reach the 49 wins it took to snag the No. 8 spot last season. And that 8-17 record, as bad as it looks, might be optimistic."
The West will not wait for the Thunder to recover.
The conference boasts each of the league's final three undefeated teams: Warriors, Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. It's also home to the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, who are riding a ridiculous run of 15 consecutive 50-win seasons.
The Spurs brought back all parts of their banner-raising roster, and the other three teams made impactful additions over the offseason.
The Warriors strengthened their bench with Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa and Brandon Rush. The Rockets found a perimeter stopper in Trevor Ariza, who may be a better fit for this roster than the offensive-minded Chandler Parsons was. The Grizzlies added some needed offensive punch in the form of veteran Vince Carter.
Then there's the Los Angeles Clippers, a team with two MVP candidates (Blake Griffin and Chris Paul), one of the best coaches in the business (Doc Rivers) and an incredibly enthusiastic new owner (Steve Ballmer). And the Dallas Mavericks, who are blending some familiar faces from their 2011 championship team with new, explosive offensive weapons.
The Blazers won 54 games last season, then added some reserve relief with Chris Kaman, Steve Blake and a healthy C.J. McCollum. The Suns terrorized with two point guards before (Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic) and have since added a third to their potent mix (Isaiah Thomas).
"It seems like everyone in the West got better," Warriors center Andrew Bogut said, per Bay Area News Group's Diamond Leung. "... There are so many good teams. Fifty wins might give you eighth (place), barely."
As scary as that sounds, it’s absolutely true. The other seven playoff teams from last season seem ready to reclaim their spots, and a number of clubs are angling to take OKC’s postseason seat.
The West can make stumbles seem like free-falls.
If the Thunder cannot right the ship sooner than later, they could be in serious jeopardy of never leaving the dock.
Weighing Hope Against Reality
A team with Durant and Westbrook on its roster will never fall completely out of the championship chase. If the Thunder can find a way to snag a playoff spot, they could still be a force regardless of their seed—though a daunting climb through the Western Conference would become even more difficult on the road.
But OKC's injury issues have backed this team into a corner. And if there is an escape route, it's one that involves the type of fortune the Thunder cannot seem to find.
The challenge isn't simply getting Durant and Westbrook back in action. It's also having the young pieces on this roster healthy enough to take advantage of this opportunity to hasten their development.
The Thunder know what to expect from their two superstars and, to a lesser extent, from Ibaka. What they're still finding out, though, is how heavy a load their prospects can carry.
If Jones finds his way to consistent production, he could give Oklahoma City some intriguing small-ball options. Lamb could add another scoring threat on the perimeter. Adams can elevate the interior with more offense and better shot-blocking than Perkins has to offer. And Jackson could alleviate some of the scoring and play-making pressures Durant and Westbrook are used to shouldering on their own.
But there are no guarantees that these young guns can make those leaps. Just like there is no way of knowing when Durant and Westbrook will come back or how much time they will need to find their rhythm.
The reality is the Thunder are in a terrible spot. It's not totally devoid of hope, but the challenges facing this team are real, and they are immense.
If they can somehow stop this skid before it costs them a playoff berth, they still have a shot at working some postseason magic. But for now, the Thunder feel further from a title than they have in years.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
