Reassessing 49ers' Playoff Chances After Week 9 Loss
Do the San Francisco 49ers look like a playoff team after what might be their worst loss on the season and, perhaps, in the Jim Harbaugh era?
One might think San Francisco's playoff chances are all but spoiled after suffering a 13-10 loss to the St. Louis Rams in Week 9. Defensively, the 49ers looked solid enough to carry weight forward. But the offense sputtered, flopped and ultimately failed during the contest.
What makes this worse is that the loss came against a Rams team that entered the game with a 2-5 record and a defense that ranked No. 27 in the league in rushing yards against. They still hold that spot now, with a total of 1,090 yards allowed on the ground.
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Prior to the game, St. Louis had a whopping six sacks over seven games. The Rams more than doubled that total on Sunday.
Embarrassing? Yes.
This was a game the 49ers were supposed to win, and in big fashion. They did anything but.
Bleacher Report's Adam Lefkoe and Chris Simms break down whether or not this game broke the back of San Francisco's playoff hopes:
But let us delve a little deeper.
We are now left to wonder exactly where San Francisco will fit into the greater playoff picture once the end of the regular season rolls around. Will this game be the crucial linchpin that eventually sealed the fate of San Francisco's postseason chances?
Let's try to answer that.
The Context
Sunday's loss was ugly in almost every sense of the word. The 49ers lost to a banged-up, inferior Rams squad that, to their credit, played San Francisco as desperately and physically as they could. The results proved favorable from the Rams' vantage point and offset what was once speculated as a vastly improved offense.
On the surface, this game would have lost the proverbial "stink" that any such loss of this caliber would emanate. A team with Super Bowl aspirations should not lose to a bad squad, no matter how desperate they are playing.
But what makes it worse is where the 49ers stand within the NFC West and what the other teams around the division, and conference, did at the subsequent time.
Both the Arizona Cardinals (7-1) and Seattle Seahawks (5-3) won in Week 9, defeating the Dallas Cowboys and Oakland Raiders, respectively. San Francisco's loss now pushes them down to a 4-4 record and just one game above the last-place Rams within the division.
One might assume that Arizona is running away with the division. They now stand alone as the NFL's only remaining one-loss team and can boast of having the best record in football.
Also making this worse is the fact that San Francisco came off a bye in Week 8. One would think that the added rest and preparatory period would have given the 49ers an edge. It did not, at least offensively.
Further hurting San Francisco's prospects was the notion that this game was, perhaps, the second-easiest contest the 49ers would face during the second half. St. Louis entered the fray with a 2-5 record. The Oakland Raiders (0-8) figure to be an easy opponent, as do the Washington Redskins (3-6), whom the 49ers face at Levi's Stadium in Week 12.
However, teams like the Cardinals and Seahawks do provide tough, physical matchups that could easily go either way.
But there is plenty of football left to be played, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Yet if the playoffs started in Week 10—thankfully they don't—the 49ers would be on the outside looking in. Let's take a look at the current playoff picture, courtesy of CBS Sports:
San Francisco is currently ranked as the No. 8 seed in the conference, one game behind the Green Bay Packers and one game behind the sixth-placed Seahawks, who own the tiebreaker over Green Bay having defeated the Packers in Week 1.
As stated previously, we cannot crown the Cardinals as division champions just yet. But it's becoming ever clearer that the 49ers' hopes to clinch the division are merely nothing more than a distant hope at this point.
But, as proven by San Francisco's other professional franchise—the World Champion Giants—simply getting into the postseason can be all that is needed.
From this vantage point, we shouldn't count the 49ers out by any means. They are still very much alive, albeit their chances look much dimmer than they previously did.
The Remaining Schedule
Saying the 49ers need to finish strong over the remaining half of the season is an understatement. The team's four losses ties the mark San Francisco held in 2013, which was not enough to unseat then-division champion Seattle.
San Francisco has four home games remaining on the schedule—Weeks 12, 13, 16 and 17.
Here is a breakdown of the remaining schedule:
| Week 10 | @ New Orleans Saints | 4-4 | 1st - NFC South | |
| Week 11 | @ New York Giants | 3-4 | 3rd - NFC East | |
| Week 12 | vs. Washington Redskins | 3-6 | 4th - NFC East | |
| Week 13 | vs. Seattle Seahawks | 5-3 | 2nd - NFC West | |
| Week 14 | @ Oakland Raiders | 0-8 | 4th - AFC West | |
| Week 15 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 5-3 | 2nd - NFC West | |
| Week 16 | vs. San Diego Chargers | 5-4 | 3rd - AFC West | |
| Week 17 | vs. Arizona Cardinals | 7-1 | 1st - NFC West |
The 49ers now have to take to the road and face the 4-4 New Orleans Saints in Week 10. The Saints are riding a two-game winning streak and are 3-0 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome through this point. Additionally, they have a scoring differential of 72-33 in their last two games.
Yes, one might argue that New Orleans took advantage of subpar defenses—the Green Bay Packers (No. 16) and the Carolina Panthers (No. 29), respectively—but it is safe to say the 49ers have a legitimate challenge on their hands as they attempt to bounce back from Week 9.
The road trip continues to New York as San Francisco takes on the 3-4 Giants in Week 11. The Giants aren't faring any better this season, but road games back east always prove to be a challenge.
Life might get a little easier against the Redskins in Week 12. This game is played at home, but it is then followed up by a Thanksgiving Day matchup versus the Seahawks in Week 13. While Seattle is suffering from some of its own offensive ineptitude, San Francisco cannot afford the same sort of lackluster offensive efforts shown against St. Louis.
A matchup against Oakland in Week 14 is probably the easiest out of the remaining schedule. Technically, it is a road game. But given the travel involved, it's safe to assume San Francisco should have few problems overpowering the winless Raiders.
But San Francisco travels to Seattle the following week—never an easy task—before hosting the San Diego Chargers and Cardinals in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
If we were to predict how the remainder of the schedule pans out for the 49ers, it would be a reasonable assumption that San Francisco would be likely to drop two more games—let's say at New Orleans and at Seattle—and finish the season 10-6.
Would that be good enough to get into the dance?
We can debate all we want about the other seeds around the league. We can even hope San Francisco finishes with a perfect 8-0 record and both Arizona and Seattle fall apart down the stretch.
But the reality points evermore to a wild-card berth for the 49ers, if any seed at all. This means we'll have to keep an eye on teams like the Dallas Cowboys and/or the Philadelphia Eagles, depending on what happens in the NFC East. We'll continue to monitor the Seahawks as well.
Keep in mind, however, that Arizona finished with a 10-6 record a year ago. That wasn't good enough to make it to the postseason.
The Problems
Where should we put the blame for San Francisco's recent struggles?
Defensively, the 49ers looked solid against the Rams. But it was the Rams—a team that ranks No. 29 in the league for total yards gained (2,548).
Yet on offense, San Francisco's woes were revealed in full light on Sunday. After eight games, the 49ers now rank No. 23 in the league for total yards gained (2,765)—a far cry from the hopes 49ers fans had for this offense entering the year.
One might call out offensive coordinator Greg Roman, nothing new to his San Francisco tenure, but it's something that bears attention. Take a look at the following tweets as perfect examples:
"*Greg Roman jumps from press box, drops a People's Elbow on Kaepernick* *Rips off mask, reveals he's Jimmy Raye* Ted Robinson: "BAH GOD"
— Ruthless Sports Guy (@Ruthless_Sports) November 3, 2014"
"Image leaked of Greg Roman play calling device: pic.twitter.com/3Rvj8JaAOw
— Tre9er (@Tre9er) November 2, 2014"
Roman was defended by Frank Gore following the loss, via Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area:
"[We] just got to make our mind up, do what we feel we’re good at and just go do it. I still think we have a great coordinator. I still believe in our coordinator. He’s been successful since he got here. As players, we just got to look at ourselves in the mirror. And whenever he makes a call, we got to go do it. I don’t want to put it on him. It’s also us. We’re out there playing. I feel he put us in good situations. We’re just too up and down.
"
Gore does bring up a valid point. Roman cannot offer pass protection himself, nor can he execute a correctly made pass on the final 49ers' final drive of the fourth quarter—an element argued by the 49ers' play-by-play announcer Ted Robinson on KNBR 680's Murph and Mac Show, Monday morning.
Then there was the Kaepernick fumble on San Francisco's final offensive play.
But we can still call into question the general lack of adjustment on offense—an aspect in which the 49ers have struggled in the second half of games seemingly all season long.
This does fall upon Roman.
We can also look at other problems within the 49ers offense. The offensive line, once a stalwart of this team, looks nothing like the bona fide force it used to be in recent seasons.
“We’ve got all the talent in the world,” left tackle Joe Staley said, via Eric Branch of SFGate.com. “We were doing some dumb stuff, and they took advantage of it.”
Indeed, they were doing some dumb stuff.
Rookie Marcus Martin, starting for the injured Daniel Kilgore, allowed two sacks in his NFL debut and looked like he was simply overmatched for almost the entirety of the game.
But Staley—a 30-year-old veteran and three-time Pro Bowler—also allowed two sacks. What's the excuse there?
Branch writes:
"The Rams were blitzing, in Staley’s indelicate estimation, a “s— ton,” and the 49ers were helpless to handle it. This, despite having an extra week to prepare against a division opponent they’d played 20 days earlier and despite St. Louis defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ reputation for bringing pressure. In the first half, the Rams had six sacks, matching their total from their first seven games, and the 49ers’ offensive line struggles extended beyond the sacks. The front five was also responsible for four of the team’s nine penalties and two more of their infractions were declined.
"
What's more shocking is the apparent lack of identity the 49ers are currently facing. This goes beyond the notion that San Francisco is engineered to utilize a power-run scheme, or that they should do more with the passing attack.
The up-front elements are clearly missing something.
Doug Williams of NBC Bay Area elaborates:
"But the other factor to consider is the 49ers offensive line. Maybe it simply isn’t as good as it was the past three seasons and coaches no longer have confidence in it. ... A line that started every game together in 2012 has been consistently hampered by absences. Maybe the 49ers just can’t overpower defenders the way they once did in the running game. And, the pass protection also has been weak. The blitzing Rams sacked Kaepernick a career-high eight times Sunday.
"
If the notion that "it all starts up front" rings true, the 49ers are in for a long second half if the O-line continues to hold the offense back.
The Fixes
What are they?
This author is afraid that there really isn't a simple answer for all of this. On the surface, we should recognize that the 49ers have all the talent they need to overcome many of the setbacks faced during the first half of the season.
True, injuries and Aldon Smith's suspension can bear a portion of the blame, but these do not explain everything.
The calls to fire Greg Roman will still come, perhaps louder now more than ever. Are they justified? The readers can debate that all they want.
But coaching and play-calling cannot, in and of itself, fix a lack of execution. It is here that the 49ers offense is lacking. Whether it be the O-line failing to hold blocks or Kaepernick not quite putting enough touch on a pass to Michael Crabtree in the fourth quarter, the players also need to be held accountable.
As Staley said, via Chris Biderman of Scout.com, "We played like (expletive)."
Playing like said expletive certainly is not going to get the job done at this level and within this division.
But the good news is this: There is still plenty of time to right the ship en route to a playoff berth. As tempting as it is to simply write this team off after such an embarrassing game, San Francisco is still very much in the playoff picture.
Perhaps the 49ers can take a page out of the San Francisco Giants' book and realize that just securing a spot in the postseason can be enough to ride things out towards a Super Bowl crown.
For this to happen, however, the 49ers will need to make some critical adjustments and step up their game in a way that has largely eluded them over the course of the season.
The pressure is on for you, San Francisco. It's time to meet the challenge.
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive for 49ers news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.
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