Sky-High Expectations Mean 2014-15 Is a Crossroads for Golden State Warriors
For better or worse, the Golden State Warriors are entering a defining year for their franchise.
With an overhauled coaching staff, a revamped reserve unit and most of the key contributors back from last season's 51-win team, the Warriors are looking to make the mighty leap from good to great.
Frankly, they have to take a significant step forward in 2014-15. This core is neither inexpensive nor young, meaning that if the team has opened its championship window, there are no guarantees it will stay open for long.
The Warriors need to strike, and quickly. Even if the organization's odds of climbing the championship podium for the first time since 1975 aren't exceptional, this could be as good as they get for a while.
The Excitement
While the Dubs may have passed up the blockbuster deal many wanted them to make this summer (see: Love, Kevin), they hope to have made a similarly impactful move on the sideline.
After dismissing former coach Mark Jackson following back-to-back playoff trips, the Warriors handed over the reins to former player-executive-analyst Steve Kerr. To safeguard that investment, the team surrounded its rookie coach with NBA heavyweights Alvin Gentry (Doc Rivers' right-hand man last season) and Ron Adams (Tom Thibodeau's former lead assistant).
Between Gentry's sharp offensive mind and Adams' defensive genius, the Warriors have attempted to find perhaps the biggest thing that eluded them last season: two-way balance.
Golden State finished the 2013-14 campaign ranked third in defensive efficiency but checked in at a disappointing 12th on the opposite end. Given the firepower possessed by this roster, that latter figure had some obvious upward mobility if the pieces could be put in the right place.
So Kerr's staff has emphasized movement of body and ball to tap into the team's full offensive potential.
"This year I think coaches have really put an emphasis on, 'Look, when you see [Andrew] Bogut in the box, he's not just there as a decoy. Throw him the ball, cut, move off him," Harrison Barnes said, per Bay Area News Group's Diamond Leung. "And Bogut, 'If you get the ball, you don't have to just pass it back out. Turn, look to score the basketball."
To oversimplify the system, the ball should not stick in this offense. And it didn't during the team's opening-night 95-77 win over the Sacramento Kings, when the Warriors assisted on 63.6 percent of their field goals (up from last season's 59.1).
While sloppy at times (22 turnovers), the offense showcased several elements Warriors fans have been waiting to see: playing with pace, attacking the basket, small-ball creativity and staggered lineups with starters and reserves.
The Warriors attempted 32 free throws on the night—they averaged only 21.1 last season—and broke the contest open with an undersized group featuring 6'7" Draymond Green at center and 6'8" Barnes at the 4.
"We went to that lineup for pace, and that's always going to be an option for us," Kerr told reporters after the game. "That's the beauty of having this roster. I can't believe how lucky I am with my first team to have this type of versatility and tough-minded guys."
Kerr can throw a number of different offensive looks at a defense.
Splash Brothers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are incendiary shooters from distance. Barnes, Andre Iguodala and Leandro Barbosa can cause havoc going at the rim. Green can light the lamp from inside and out, and his basketball IQ is off the charts. Both Bogut and David Lee are expert passers and comfortable scorers on the block, and the latter skill is also a potent weapon in Shaun Livingston's arsenal.
With depth to complement their top-tier talent and a fiery offense to match their dominant defense, the ingredients are there for the Warriors to be a two-way force capable of holding court with the NBA's elite teams.
That is, of course, assuming everything goes according to plan. If not, there are an uncomfortable amount of ways for this season to fall apart.
The Worry
Chief among the Warriors' uncomfortable concerns is their ongoing contract extensions with Thompson.
The team has until Friday to get something done with the two-way 2-guard. And while there seems to be mutual interest between the parties, Marc J. Spears of Yahoo Sports reported recently that Thompson's camp "is frustrated" that a maximum contract offer has yet to come across the table.
His representatives have every right to feel that way. All signs have pointed to Thompson securing that type of commitment. From the major money thrown at Chandler Parsons and Gordon Hayward this summer through the team's decision to keep Thompson out of any trade talks for Kevin Love to Thompson's starring role with Team USA at the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup, everything has foreshadowed that conclusion.
Still, the Warriors are looking to use whatever power they have—if nothing gets done, Thompson would become a restricted free agent next offseason, and the Warriors could match any offer he receives—to save whatever money they can. But it's hard to say just how much power that really is.
This summer proved how sticky restricted free agency can be. As ESPN.com's Marc Stein explained, Thompson could put the Warriors in a real bind by signing a deal similar to the one Parsons landed from the Dallas Mavericks:
"One real option, I'm told, is Thompson pursuing an offer sheet from a new team modeled after the loaded three-year contract structure Chandler Parsons scored from Dallas this past summer.
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Which is to say that Thompson, were he to pull a Parsons and sign a three-year deal with a player option to return to free agency in Year 2, would be setting himself up to hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent in 2017 ... at the exact same time as Splash Brothers sidekick Steph Curry.
Don't think the Warriors want that.
Even getting something done now with Thompson is tough.
The Warriors already have more than $56 million on next season's books for Curry, Lee, Bogut, Iguodala and Livingston alone. Thompson's new deal could take a sizable chunk out of the remaining money, a fact that becomes particularly frightening given that the uber-versatile Green will be up for his own extension next summer.
Ideally, the Warriors would keep both players around. But that possibility could hinge on ownership's willingness to foot a luxury-tax bill, depending on how quickly the league incorporates the new media-rights money into the salary cap. Moving into tax territory would also restrict the team's ability to add external talent.
The Warriors are facing some difficult financial decisions, but those are far from being this team's only concern.
It remains to be seen how effective this new-look offense will be over the long haul. And there is always the chance these offensive gains might result in some defensive drawbacks.
"I think a mistake is being made to just presume the Warriors will retain everything from last year and just add a better offense," wrote Bay Area News Group's Marcus Thompson. "... The Warriors are going to have to work to be as good defensively, and work to be better offensively."
Even if the Warriors improve, there is the question of how great that improvement must be to escape the treacherous Western Conference. The San Antonio Spurs are still the reigning champs, the Los Angeles Clippers added to their already explosive offense with stretch big Spencer Hawes and the Oklahoma City Thunder could still have the league's top tandem in Russell Westbrook and (when he's healthy) Kevin Durant.
And those are just a few of the many landmines sure to line this conference's playoff field.
The road ahead looks rocky at best. Still, it's a path this team must pursue if it wants to rub elbows with the game's greats.
The Forecast
The Warriors have improved their win total in each of the last two seasons, and it feels relatively safe to assume that trend will continue. It might not be a major leap, but it might not have to be. Had the Warriors won 55 games in 2013-14 as opposed to 51, they would have opened the playoffs at home as the West's No. 4 seed.
That should be the first goal for this group. By hosting a postseason series—something the Warriors haven't done since 1992—Golden State would give itself its best chance to avoid a disappointing first-round exit.
But for this season to be a true success, the Warriors need to dream bigger than that.
In terms of the contracts committed to this core and the draft picks sacrificed to put it together, this franchise has purchased serious stock in this group of players. That level of investment should carry championship expectations, but a trip to the conference finals is a far more reasonable goal.
That's where the bar should be set. It's a lofty aim, for sure, but the Warriors have learned how to be good and now say they are ready to shoot for greatness.
"I think what's key and what's maybe turned with this team a couple years ago and having been in the playoffs for a couple years is the players actually believe they belong," general manager Bob Myers said, per Antonio Gonzalez of The Associated Press. "... It's a mindset switch. I don't think our players are afraid of expectations."
Embracing those expectations is a start, but meeting (or even exceeding) them is the true test. Should this team flame out early in the playoffs, it could have a dramatically different look going forward.
If this clearly is not a contender, it cannot have four eight-figure salaries on the books—five if Thompson collects his check. The Warriors would not need to reset, per se, but unloading Lee's heavy contract and either Bogut's or Iguodala's could become priorities.
Golden State should be an attractive destination for free agents with Curry around and Kerr's potentially stat-friendly system in place, but it obviously needs the right bankroll to chase those big fish. And it might need to get creative to acquire that kind of help, a route it will have to explore if this team fails to perform at an elite level.
The stakes are high, but pressure is a good thing. It means the Warriors have been getting things right, assembling the puzzle pieces needed to put together an extraordinary season.
Now they have to live up to that hype. Because one way or another, the 2014-15 campaign will determine the direction this franchise is headed.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via ShamSports.com.
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