San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins: Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The San Diego Chargers are 10-2-1 against the spread in their last 13 games as underdogs on the road, including 6-2-1 in a season-plus under head coach Mike McCoy. On the other end of the NFL betting trends spectrum the Miami Dolphins are 1-4 ATS their last five games as favorites at home. In a rematch of one of the great NFL playoff games of all-time the 5-3 Chargers visit the 4-3 Dolphins Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Dolphins opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.8-20.7 Chargers

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers had won five games in a row, including the upset of defending Super Bowl champion Seattle and two on the road, before losing their last two, most recently a 35-21 result at divisional-rival Denver. San Diego got within one score of covering as a nine-point dog and drove into Broncos territory with about five minutes left, but a Philip Rivers interception put an end to any thoughts of a comeback.

By the numbers the Bolts rank 15th in total offense, 10th in total defense and fourth in moving the chains, converting third downs into first downs just over 50 percent of the time.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins have won two games in a row, after victories at Chicago and at Jacksonville, and that streak could have been four straight if not for that late drive by the Packers three weeks ago. Miami just used a pair of defensive touchdowns to beat the Jaguars 27-13, covering as seven-point road chalk. The Dolphins gave up 377 yards to an iffy Jacksonville offense but a lot of that yardage came on just a few plays.

Miami also forced three Jags turnovers. The Dolphins rank 13th in total offense, seventh in total defense and have outrushed opponents by an average of 27 yards per game. Finally, the Dolphins just beat the Chargers last November 20-16, winning outright as three-point home dogs.

Smart Pick

Rivers is almost a magician at quarterback for San Diego, but he needs help from a stagnant running game. The Chargers are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS this season in games they've outrushed their opponents and 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS in games in which they've been outrushed. Until San Diego can improve upon its 86 yards per game on the ground, and stop forcing Rivers to do everything, it's just not a very good bet. So the smart choice here is with Miami, the home team at a short spread.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in five of San Diego's last seven games on the road
• The total has gone under in five of Miami's last five games when playing at home against San Diego

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.