Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots: Complete Week 9 Preview for New England
Few individual matchups have elicited as many thrills as Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, and Sunday's contest should mark another chapter in arguably the greatest rivalry in American sports.
Of course, while the quarterbacks will occupy much of the game's discourse, the contest is most intriguing because it pits two of the league's most well-rounded teams against each other. The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots have had distinctly different campaigns. The former has pummeled its competition and generated consideration as one of the best teams in recent history, while the latter has struggled and overcome adversity to reassert itself as a championship contender.
All four offensive and defensive units are laden with Pro Bowl-caliber talent, so any comprehensive preview would almost be too capacious to consume. But while the list of potential difference-makers is extensive, the game's outcome will most likely rest on a few key matchups and in-game factors, as there are very few secrets between these familiar foes.
Read on for the in-depth preview of the week's premier matchup and the most important keys to victory from a New England perspective.
Patriots Week 8 Recap
1 of 5The Pats played their best all-around game of the season in shredding the Chicago Bears, 51-23. While the lopsided score partially stemmed from the Bears' self-destruction, the Patriots also illustrated the qualities that made them a universally acknowledged Super Bowl contender at the beginning of the year.
Tom Brady played one of the best games of his career, relentlessly carving up the middle of the field with an array of seams to Rob Gronkowski. Moreover, his synergy with Brandon LaFell has made New England's offensive attack especially frightening, as the Pats now possess a legitimate perimeter threat for the first time since Randy Moss' departure midway through the 2010 season.
Against a Denver defense with a versatile and talented secondary, that diversity will be essential toward controlling time of possession. Assuming New England continues to utilize its 12 personnel (two WR, two TE, one RB), the key will be whether or not the Broncos' sub-package personnel can continue to have as much success stuffing the run as they have all season. The Pats have not encountered a defense over the past month that has consistently stifled that package, but the Broncos possess the personnel, at least on paper.
Defensively, the Patriots figure to copy-paste their game plan from Week 8. Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner helped smother a pair of towering Chicago targets in Brandon Marshall and Martellus Bennett, and the cornerback tandem figures to match up against Demaryius and Julius Thomas on Sunday. Bill Belichick has traditionally attempted to eliminate the middle of the field against Manning, and now with Revis and Browner in tow, the Pats are well-equipped to challenge the Broncos on the perimeter as well.
The Patriots looked like a team without a significant weakness last week, but the Broncos have mirrored that form all season. If the Pats carry over their form from the past month, this contest may represent the highest level of football we experience all season.
News and Notes
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Weather in Patriots' Favor?
Last year, gusty and frigid conditions played a key role in the Patriots' regular-season win over Denver, influencing Bill Belichick's decision to defer in overtime. According to ESPNBoston.com, a redux could be in store for Sunday's showdown:
"While it looks like early predictions of snow for Sunday’s matchup between the New England Patriots and Broncos at Gillette Stadium might not come to fruition (there’s only a 20-30 percent chance of precipitation), you can count on it being cold and windy.
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Forecasts call for a high temperature in the low 40s and a low of around 30 degrees. With kickoff at 4:25 p.m., you can count on it being plenty chilly as the game winds down in the early evening. In addition to the cold, winds are expected to blow as high as 24 miles per hour.
Peyton Manning's issues in cold weather are certainly overstated, and indeed, his 9-12 record in sub-freezing temperatures is mostly a byproduct of playing road games. In reality, even if Manning does not perform up to expectations, the Broncos are a multifaceted squad capable of winning through myriad methods.
Regardless of that fact, however, the Patriots will welcome the coming of winter. According to Pro-Football-Reference, New England possesses the league's best winning percentage in sub-freezing temperatures during the Brady era, having gone a remarkable 24-3 since 2001. As one of the elite cold-weather teams every season, the Patriots should have no issues with the conditions.
Belichick Explains Cannon's Usage
Although the Pats offensive line has settled in over the past month, the right tackle rotation remains a hot-button issue. Despite struggling at guard earlier this year, Marcus Cannon has remained in the rotation, playing two to three series per game at tackle. As Belichick explains, per Patriots.com's Andy Hart, he believes Cannon has earned that playing time through merit:
"I think they all deserve to play. I think they’ve all played well enough to continue to deserve to play. We have confidence with whoever is in there. They all bring many positives to their positions: Sebastian, Nate and Marcus...Guys we’ve put on the field are on the field because they’re productive and they help the team. I’d say the same thing about those three players.
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In reality, Cannon has mostly calmed down since becoming a part-time tackle. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he has conceded two hurries in 53 pass-blocking snaps at tackle—a 97.2 percent pass-blocking efficiency mark that would rank sixth among regular starting tackles.
More cynical observers could suggest that Cannon's rotation is simply to stymie Sebastian Vollmer from reaching the playing-time incentives in his contract. But Belichick has never compromised his team's chances of winning, so while Cannon's periodic insertions may cost Vollmer some cash, it is highly unlikely that it is the product of any underhanded conspiracy.
Casillas' Deployment
For the second consecutive week, the Patriots are integrating a new trade acquisition into the lineup. A week after Akeem Ayers flashed promisingly in sub-package snaps, ex-Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jonathan Casillas hopes to carve out a similar role in nickel and dime personnel:
"Just talked to new Patriots LB Jonathan Casillas. As expected, he expects to contribute on special teams and in sub packages.
— Doug Kyed (@DougKyedNESN) October 30, 2014"
Casillas fell out of favor in Lovie Smith's system but has experience as a starting strong-side linebacker in a 4-3 system, much like the one the Patriots switched to against the Chicago Bears last Sunday. If Dont'a Hightower kicks down to a three-point stance on the line to help replace Chandler Jones' edge-rushing presence, Casillas could see time next to Jamie Collins and/or Patrick Chung in passing situations.
This week obviously portends heavy sub-package usage, as it would be surprising if the Patriots employed extra front seven players except in goal-line situations. Casillas may or may not have enough of the playbook down to contribute, but he could represent one potential option to cover the likes of Ronnie Hillman, Jacob Tamme and Virgil Green in pass coverage.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Out |
| Dominique Easley | DE/DT | Questionable |
| Nate Ebner | S | Questionable |
| Cameron Fleming | OT/OG | Questionable |
| Matthew Slater | ST | Questionable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
| Brandon Browner | CB | Probable |
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
After a four-game-in-18-day stretch wreaked havoc on the roster, the Patriots are finally getting healthier. Alan Branch was also on the Thursday report after being signed, but his absence was non-injury related.
That's a fortunate report, because the biggest concern remains depth in the defensive front seven. With Jones still out for the foreseeable future, Easley will likely play heavy snaps every week. Although Dont'a Hightower was removed from the injury report on Friday, both he and Easley are grinding through injuries that may be season-long woes, stressing an already thin unit.
The rest of the injury news is encouraging, however. Starting offensive linemen Dan Connolly and Bryan Stork were removed from the report altogether this week, which means that the Patriots finally have playable depth along the line. The injury bug will pop again eventually, but with the bye week approaching, New England should be healthy for the beginning of the stretch run.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5Brandon Browner vs. Julius Thomas
While Darrelle Revis vs. Demaryius Thomas figures to draw plenty of headlines, a considerably more tenuous matchup from a Patriots perspective is Browner vs. Julius Thomas. Though Browner possesses the talent to stifle Thomas' rare athleticism, the corner's tendency to pick up penalties and lose his man downfield could create some big plays for the Broncos.
Browner played his best game of the season against Chicago yet still conceded a touchdown while committing two penalties. The Broncos utilize Thomas in a similar fashion as the Bears deployed Bennett, as he is an "F" tight end who will often line up as an isolated receiver on a 3 x 1 "Dakota" formation.
Thomas represents Manning's go-to target in the red zone; per Pro-Football-Reference, the big tight end has received 12 red-zone targets, second-most on the team behind Demaryius Thomas. The tight end has caught 10 of those targets, turning an astounding seven of them into touchdowns.
Thus, Browner will need to elevate his game even further to contain Thomas, particularly in the scoring area. With a wide gap between his ceiling and floor of performance, Browner may have the largest say of any Patriots defender as to how well New England contains Denver's offense.
Rob Gronkowski vs. T.J. Ward
Patriots fans are likely having traumatic flashbacks in seeing these two names paired together. Ward, who effectively ended New England's 2013 Super Bowl aspirations by delivering the hit that blew out Gronkowski's ACL, will once again match up on the Patriots' All-Pro tight end.
With Eric Berry and Kam Chancellor battling injuries and Kenny Vaccaro regressing, Ward may very well be the best "box" safety in the league. Besides his ability to cover tight ends, Ward demonstrates a fearless downhill style of run support. Essentially, he is Denver's souped-up version of Patrick Chung, a hybrid linebacker/safety who allows for creative combinations in sub-packages.
However, Ward has had his share of issues against big tight ends, as he has conceded three touchdowns in the past two weeks to Antonio Gates and Jace Amaro. The Patriots are likely to operate from a spread shotgun formation for much of Sunday's game, which would leave Ward one-on-one with Gronkowski.
For what it's worth, Gronk barely made an impact against Ward's Cleveland Browns last year, notching just two receptions for 32 yards before his injury. Nonetheless, nearing full speed once again, Gronkowski looks like New England's best bet to crack an impressive Broncos defense.
Patriots Defensive Line vs. Ronnie Hillman
While most Patriots fans are fretting about how to slow Denver's incendiary passing game, it is the ground game that could actually doom New England. Knowshon Moreno rushed for 250 yards in last year's regular-season meeting, providing plenty of favorable short down-and-distance situations.
The Pats stymied Denver on some of those critical third downs, but that's hardly a sustainable strategy. Thus, they must win in the trenches and control Ronnie Hillman, who has demonstrated an impressive speed-power combination as a lead back during Montee Ball's absence, averaging 4.9 yards per carry over the past three games.
Look for the Pats to replicate the 4-3 Over base front that they used last week against Chicago. That would allow them to deploy their best run-stuffers—Vince Wilfork and Dont'a Hightower—in the interior gaps, while Rob Ninkovich and Dominique Easley set the edge. For the Pats to stop Manning, they must first force him to carry a much greater burden by eliminating Hillman from the game.
X-Factor: Shane Vereen
Remember my earlier point about how the Broncos' sub-package personnel has been strong against the run? A continuation of that trend could be disastrous for the Patriots offense, forcing the onus onto Brady and allowing superb edge-rushers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware to tee off.
Jonas Gray is more a factor when the Pats utilize a fullback in under-center formations. However, with New England likely to play more spread concepts, look for Vereen to claim a large majority of the snaps this week. In two games against Denver last season, Vereen was excellent, averaging 6.8 yards per touch and notching a touchdown.
Vereen will receive his usual diet of middle shotgun draws, while he figures to draw linebacker Brandon Marshall in the passing game. That is a winnable matchup for the fourth-year back, and in order for the Pats to fully utilize their rapidly improving receiving corps, Vereen must first stretch the Broncos with an adequate performance on the ground.
Prediction
5 of 5Though the Pats will face a difficult monthlong stretch immediately following their Week 10 bye, this is the best litmus test New England could hope for. Regardless of the final result, a complete 60-minute effort against a team that is widely considered the league's finest should confirm the Patriots' realistic Super Bowl aspirations.
Denver possesses too many weapons to expect a total shutdown, but the Pats do at least have an answer for every problem the Broncos can throw at them on both sides of the ball. Few teams can boast of that, so it is reasonable to assert that the Patriots at Gillette Stadium should not even be underdogs.
In many ways, the Broncos and Patriots spent the offseason preparing for each other. Denver has been hopeless against the Pats offense when Rob Gronkowski has been healthy, while New England lost the AFC Championship Game last January primarily because the Broncos receivers dominated on the perimeter. Between Ward and Talib for Denver and Revis and Browner for New England, four premier free agents were signed specifically to combat the other team.
The Patriots have re-established themselves as legitimate championship contenders over the past month and should remain in that state with reasonable health. But they have not yet usurped the Broncos for the status of AFC favorite. Sunday's contest represents a prime opportunity to claim that mantle and steal the inside track for home-field advantage in the conference.
Prediction: Patriots 32, Broncos 30
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