Iman Shumpert's Future with New York Knicks More Complex Than We Think
Attempting to gain insight into Iman Shumpert's future with the New York Knicks is a convoluted and futile endeavor. Knowledge-seekers would be better off trying to complete a 1,000-piece puzzle of perfectly paved blacktop using only their feet.
There is no right or wrong answer when predicting what the months ahead have in store. Shumpert could be traded. He could leave in restricted free agency. The Knicks could pass on his qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent; and as an unrestricted free agent, he could leave to form a superteam with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the Milwaukee Bucks. We don't know.
All we really do know, thanks to ESPN New York's Ian Begley, is that he will not join fourth-year peers like Nikola Vucevic and Kenneth Faried in signing an extension. He and the Knicks apparently haven't even held talks, which, admittedly, should come as no surprise.
Shumpert's tenure in New York has been topsy-turvy, to say the least. Touted as one of the league's premier perimeter defenders, he's fallen victim to injuries and mind-boggling shooting splits that, even after three years in the NBA, have left his offensive potential filed under "To Be Determined."
Seth Rosenthal expanded on Shumpert's quirky beginnings for Posting and Toasting:
"Shump's career began with a lockout and has since wandered from its ideal trajectory, hampered by some combination of injuries, organizational upheaval, role changes, and simple stagnation. And now, out of several Knicks facing contract years, Shumpert finds himself at the crossroad with the broadest range of avenues. At 24, he's young enough to improve substantially, yet old enough that a reporter caught him a bit off-guard with a question suggesting he's a "veteran" who might guide the younger guys on the team.
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Contract extensions are for players offering traces of certainty, to the point where teams can gamble on their futures based off what they know. The Knicks are ill-equipped for such a dice roll with Shumpert, as his role and ceiling within their new culture—like many of his teammates—remains unclear.
Like Begley also notes, the Knicks aren't in the business of spending money now. Signing Shumpert only eats into highly coveted cap space for 2015 and 2016, when they're expected to go superstar-hunting.
In the spirit of that eventual search, Begley himself tries to provide even more clarity:
"Unless the Knicks change course before Friday’s deadline, the lack of an extension makes it likely that this will be Shumpert’s last season with the Knicks...
...The Knicks are unlikely to match any significant contract offers for Shumpert this summer. They want to preserve cap space for the summer of 2015 and 2016, when they hope to land a free agent to pair alongside Carmelo Anthony.
Matching an offer for Shumpert, of course, would eat into that cap space. The guess here is that they'd rather keep their options open than commit money to Shumpert.
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Though it makes sense that this would be Shumpert's last year in New York—he's frequented the rumor mill like it's a famed local watering hole that serves the world's crispiest tater tots—his departure is not a given. Too much is bound to happen between now and next summer for anyone to sling more than semi-educated guesses about what becomes of him.
First and foremost, the Knicks have no idea what they'll look like by next July—especially at shooting guard.
Tim Hardaway Jr. should be back. Barring a trade, the team has made sure of it:
J.R. Smith is a different story.
As far as untouchable players go, if the Knicks have any aside from Carmelo Anthony, he isn't one of them. Sources told Begley back in July the team was open to dealing Shumpert and Smith.
Even if the Knicks don't trade him, Smith has the option of exploring free agency in 2015, per ShamSports. After last season's inconsistent showing, it seems unlikely he would leave $6.4 million on the table, but it's not out of the realm of possibility.
Smith is perfectly positioned to capitalize on the projected 2016 cap jump following the NBA's new national television deal with ESPN and Turner Sports. But the thinking behind his free agency isn't so cut and dry.
If he plays well in 2014-15, it could behoove him to hit the open market this summer and sign a long-term contract at a time when others presumably won't. The promise of stability will be a hot commodity in that scenario, which would theoretically drive his price tag up.
At that point the Knicks could be down one shooting guard. Would they be willing to give up another? Again, we don't know, but the prospect of keeping Shumpert becomes much more intriguing if he fills a bigger need.
Still, the team needs him no matter what becomes of Smith or Hardaway.
For all the talk about the triangle offense's learning curve, the Knicks face a steeper climb on the defensive end. They ranked 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions last year, and they aren't built to be much better this season. Following Tyson Chandler's exit, they could be even worse.
And that's with Shumpert, their best perimeter defender, in tow.
Look at how much better their defense was with him on the floor last season:
To add some context, the Knicks played like a top-six defense with Shumpert in the game; when he was on the bench, they played like the worst defense.
There's also this, courtesy of The Wall Street Journal's Chris Herring:
The differences are, in fact, incredible. They also make Shumpert a defensive asset who cannot be cast aside without a second thought, especially if it's just because maybe, quite possibly, the Knicks could sign a star.
While their free-agent pursuits absolutely matter, they don't actually know when they're going to spend their impending cap space or whom they'll spend it on.
Ronald Tillery, via NBC Sports, of The Commercial Appeal (subscription required) believes they'll target Marc Gasol. They, along with every other team that values winning, have also been named as possible Kevin Durant suitors in 2016, per Begley.
No such acquisitions are guaranteed, though.
Free-agency ventures that aren't borne out of contrived conspiracies are crapshoots. Phil Jackson's perpetually optimistic state of mind doesn't change that, nor does it mean he himself is ready and willing to move on from Shumpert.
It was only last March that Jackson, upon arrival, planned on keeping his embattled shooting guard long term, according to the New York Post's Marc Berman. There's nothing that suggests he's gearing up for his departure. If anything, there's more evidence to support the notion that Shumpert and Jackson write sweet rap music after hours-long meditation sessions.
"Even though Iman Shumpert was in [former Knicks coach] Mike Woodson's dog house for much of last season, he's one of my favorites because he's simply our best on-ball defender at the 2 position and also against the bigger 1s," Jackson told ESPN.com's Charley Rosen. "Once he learns the intricacies of the offense, Iman will be able to create scoring opportunities for his teammates and, unlike last season, he'll know where his own shots will come from."
Inevitably, the Knicks will have to weigh the perks of financial plasticity against the cons. When they do, Shumpert could become collateral damage. Or he could be deemed important to their future and handed a new contract.
We don't know.
Not even the Knicks know.
Theirs is a fluid future, the path by which they will travel unmarked, the destination to which they will arrive undetermined. Shumpert's part in all this, like the team's future itself, is still playing out, his fate fixed to both his play in 2014-15 and circumstances beyond his control.
Only once this season is over—or when rumors reach fruition—will it be clear whether Shumpert is a long-term survivor or a temporary asset who has served his purpose.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
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