Will Losing Billy Butler in San Francisco Doom Royals' World Series Hopes?

The Kansas City Royals' best hitter in the first two games of the World Series was Billy Butler. In Games 3, 4 and 5 of the series, here's where you'll be able to spot him: 

On the bench. And yes, this could cause about as much trouble for the Royals as you'd think.

Butler, of course, is Kansas City's designated hitter. With the World Series now shifting to the San Francisco Giants' backyard of AT&T Park for three games, National League rules decree that neither team shall have the DH. Therefore, Butler will have to ride the pine.

This is no big loss if you consult Butler's regular-season numbers. His hitting reputation precedes him, but in 2014 he established new career lows with a .271 average, .379 slugging percentage and .702 OPS. For a guy whose job it is to hit, he didn't do much hitting.

The catch is that Butler's 2014 wasn't a six-month slog of "meh." As evidenced by his .313 average and .811 OPS in June and his .288 average and .798 OPS in August, there were moments when he shook things up by getting hot.

And right now, it looks like he's in the middle of another one of these moments.

Butler was a hitless no-show against the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Division Series, but he's otherwise made his mark this postseason. In the AL Wild Card Game against the Oakland A's, the AL Championship Series against the Baltimore Orioles and now the World Series against the Giants, Butler has gone 9-for-24 (.375) with a pair of doubles and seven RBI in seven games.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

Most recently, Butler came through with a pair of RBI singles in Kansas City's series-tying 7-2 win in Game 2 at Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday night. The second of those broke a 2-2 tie in the sixth inning and was the start of a five-run rally that all but put the game away.

"Any time Billy gets up in those situations, I feel great," Yost told Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "I feel like he's going to get the job done, and again, he did it. He came up big for us twice tonight."

Overall, Butler has three hits in six World Series at-bats for a team-leading .500 average. That's obviously over a ludicrously small sample size, but it does reflect how he's looked like Kansas City's best hitter.

Butler has taken more good hacks than anyone else, including one that just missed producing a mighty result in Game 1. Leading off the seventh inning against Madison Bumgarner, he crushed a fastball that looked ticketed for the seats before it died at the track in right-center.

Even with a healthy dose of skepticism born out of Butler's regular season, it's not hard to see that having to sit him in San Francisco isn't ideal. Right now, Butler is locked in.

And it gets worse, for the Royals are about to come up against two matchups in San Francisco that Butler could help with.

In Game 3 on Friday night, the Royals will face veteran ground-ball magnet Tim Hudson. This doesn't bode well, as their .648 OPS against ground-ball pitchers was one of the worst in baseball in 2014. 

And that was with Butler. Without him, the matchup looks even worse.

Butler didn't torch ground-ball pitchers, but his .672 OPS against them was at least better than the team average. He also jumps off the page as a guy who would be a challenge for a sinker-baller like Hudson. 

According to Brooks Baseball, Butler has hit right-handed sinkers at a .321 clip. He's also done plenty of damage against hard stuff at the bottom of the zone, which is largely how Hudson operates.

Courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net (h/t Baseball Prospectus)

That's not the only matchup in the three games in San Francisco the Royals could find themselves sorely missing Butler. They could be missing him even more in Game 5 on Sunday.

That's when the Royals are slated to come across Bumgarner again. The ace left-hander has been rolling to the tune of a 1.40 ERA this October, and he was last seen in Game 1 limiting the Royals to one run on three hits in seven innings.

Butler had one of those three hits. And as we mentioned earlier, he almost picked up another with his deep drive in the seventh. Unlike most of his comrades, he wasn't totally overmatched against Bumgarner.

And that's not overly surprising. Because as inconsistent as Butler's season was, he didn't have much trouble against left-handed pitching:

Split	PA	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS
vs. RHP	448	.255	.301	.352	.653
vs. LHP	155	.321	.387	.460	.847

With a platoon split like that, it's possible that Yost could tell the left-swinging Eric Hosmer to take a seat and start Butler at first base in Game 5.

But that's doubtful. Hosmer is a good hitter who isn't totally out of his depth against southpaws, and sacrificing his plus defense at first base isn't something the Royals are likely to do.

Phil Rogers of MLB.com can back me up there: "Yost and the Royals' front office value run prevention too much to start Butler over Hosmer at first base in games using National League rules."

As for Game 4 on Saturday, there's not much outside of the groove Butler is in that says the Royals are going to miss having him against Ryan Vogelsong. And, granted, even though Butler isn't going to start in Games 3 and 5, there's nothing that says he can't pinch hit in either game.

As far as silver linings go, however, these leave a lot to be desired. With Butler on the bench, the Royals stand to get maybe three plate appearances from him in San Francisco instead of as many as 12 or 15, the bulk of which would have come with favorable matchups.

So as Butler prepares to sit for Games 3, 4 and 5, consider the ante for Kansas City's pitching and offense to be upped. That, too, is at least mildly troubling.

With the Royals set to put their faith in two hittable starters in Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas and a struggling ace in James Shields, their pitching may not be up to a heightened challenge. The club's hitters, meanwhile, have produced just three runs in the World Series outside of the Royals' five-run sixth in Game 2, and this is after producing just four in the final two games of the ALCS. 

Butler's presence is a big reason why the Royals were able to take Game 2. Looking ahead, his absence in San Francisco could end up as a big reason why their return to the World Series ultimately falls short.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.  

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