5 Bold Predictions for Miami Dolphins' Week 8 Matchup
There is no such thing as an easy game in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins know that and must continue to reaffirm themselves of this fact as they head up I-95 to take on the 1-6 Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday.
This game seems like one of the few gimmies for Miami this season, as Odds Shark has it favored by seven over a team that recorded its first victory of the season last week.
You know what other game felt like a gimmie on Miami's schedule? Last season's matchup against the then-winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs recorded their first victory of the season at home against a Dolphins team that couldn't run the ball or stop the run.
This season, Miami doesn't have those problems, while this Jaguars team, as young and feisty as it is, does not possess the talent that last year's Buccaneers did. On top of that, there are no controversies or scandals in Dolphins camp, which wasn't the case with last year's game against the Buccaneers.
Things are actually going fairly swell in Dolphins camp, and for the first time in a long time, it's not in an ominous "things are going too good" kind of way. The Dolphins are an exciting team to watch, and their quarterback has strung together three of his finest games in a row (save for the first half against Green Bay).
While that has happened, the defense has done well against two explosive offensive teams. It contained the Packers for most of the matchup in Week 6 and completely dominated the Bears in Week 7.
Both the Packers and Bears are miles ahead of the Jaguars in terms of anything relating to football. While you might not feel too good about this game due to "same-old-Dolphins syndrome," you should.
With that in mind, here are five bold predictions for this week's Sunshine State contest. These predictions are ranked in order from what will have the least effect to the most effect on the game.
5. Denard Robinson Will Give the Dolphins a Mild Headache
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I was happy to be wrong about Matt Forte last week. The Dolphins shut him down both in rushing and in passing, despite the fact that he did earn the majority of Chicago's yards (the Bears didn't gain a lot, though).
This week, it's running back Denard Robinson who scares me. The second-year former quarterback out of Michigan presents a challenge to the Dolphins that Jaguars starter Toby Gerhart doesn't: He's a matchup nightmare.
Robinson is a speedy, shifty and small (6'0", 197 lbs) back. As we've seen with the Dolphins in the last two years, these guys run all over their linebackers.
However, I'm not ready to say that Robinson will be a game-changer in the same way he was a game-changer against the Cleveland Browns in Week 7.
Much like Forte last week, he will be the one man providing a spark for the Jaguars on offense and a headache for the Dolphins defense and coaching staff.
In terms of headaches though, Robinson will be a mild one—the type you take a couple of ibuprofen to get rid of and then sleep off like nothing ever happened.
4. Sacks Will Fall out of the Sky for Miami's Defense
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In the last two seasons, the Jaguars have spent $57,880,250 on offensive linemen.
When you consider that the Dolphins will pay Branden Albert at least $26 million, that might not seem like a lot. However, with that money has also come the use of high draft picks; the Jags chose Luke Joeckel with the second pick in 2013 and then used a third-round pick on Brandon Linder in 2014.
Despite that tinkering (as well as the signing of former Broncos guard Zane Beadles), the 2014 Jaguars offensive line is bringing us back to the bad old days of 2013 and that dumpster fire of a line trotted out by the Dolphins.
Last year's Dolphins allowed 58 sacks. Through seven games this year, the Jaguars have allowed 29 sacks.
Do the math and this year's Jaguars are on pace to allow 66 sacks this season.
Starting quarterback Blake Bortles has only played in four games this season yet has been sacked 13 times. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 14 times—in two more whole games.
Is Cameron Wake hungry? He definitely is. Is Olivier Vernon hungry? Always.
Derrick Shelby, Jared Odrick, Earl Mitchell, Randy Starks? They look a bit famished as well. Same with Chris McCain.
Will Dion Jordan, potentially playing his first game of 2014, be as hungry? A defensive lineman couldn't ask for a better team to make his season debut against.
Miami's defensive line will eat on Sunday, notching as many as four sacks, and that's a conservative estimate.
3. Big Day for Charles Clay
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When will we have our Charles Clay game?
This week seems like the appropriate week for it.
The Jaguars already possess a rather poor pass defense, ranking 30th in yards allowed.
That was before last week when they lost middle linebacker and team captain Paul Posluszny for the season due to a torn pectoral muscle suffered against the Browns on Sunday.
This pass defense can only get worse (which didn't seem possible a week ago) and now can be picked on underneath.
Enter Clay, who has been quiet this season with 21 catches, 204 yards and a touchdown.
That number should increase on Sunday, as he will likely see more targets and have space to run once he catches the ball. A realistic line will be eight catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns.
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2. Dolphins Will Run for 200+ Yards as a Team
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This slide actually goes hand in hand with the next slide, as improbable as it may seem.
While the Jaguars are poor against the pass, they are a bit better against the run, ranking 15th in the league in rushing yards allowed.
That ranking says you can run on them if your run game is strong, and in Miami's case, it is.
But it's not with Lamar Miller that the Dolphins will break 200 (Miller will gain somewhere between 60-80 yards on Sunday) but rather Ryan Tannehill.
The Dolphins will break out the read-option plays more, and Tannehill will likely use his legs due in part to the confidence he has gained in the last two weeks using said plays.
As a result, he will run for 100 yards, with at least one play going for more than 30 yards.
That goes hand in hand with the next slide.
1. Ryan Tannehill Will Make You Win Fantasy Football Next Week
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Does your fantasy football opponent own Colin Kaepernick?
If he does, do yourself a favor and rush to the waiver wire to acquire Ryan Tannehill.
Then start him (unless you have Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Philip Rivers).
The reason for this is because this is the week where Tannehill breaks your fantasy football heart if he's not on your team.
We mentioned him running the ball in the last slide and how he'll account for around 100 yards. I left out the rushing touchdown I foresee him getting in that slide, but yes, there's a rushing touchdown in there too.
Then there's Tannehill the passer. The quarterback we saw against Oakland, in the second half against Green Bay, and in Chicago is the Tannehill we're going to see against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars pass defense is brutal and one that he can exploit.
We mentioned how he'll do it with Charles Clay, but you'll also see a steady diet of Jarvis Landry and Mike Wallace.
Heck, we might even see him connect with Wallace deep in this game (allow me to reel that one back in; that's going a bit too far).
Tannehill's mastery of the pass game will continue against the Jags to the tune of at least 280 yards passing with three touchdowns.
Along with what we mentioned with him running the ball on his own, that won't be a good day for you fantasy-wise, unless you start Tannehill.
Note: I am not a fantasy expert.
Statistics provided by NFL.com unless otherwise noted. Salary-cap information courtesy of Spotrac.com.
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