Assessing Vernon Davis' Future with the San Francisco 49ers

In the offseason tight end Vernon Davis held out in search of a new and improved contract from the San Francisco 49ers, but his efforts proved unsuccessful.

Davis returned from his holdout in July and has not done his case for a renewal further down the line any favors with a disappointing campaign that has seen him struggle with injuries and produce subpar performances in recent weeks.

High-profile 49ers such as Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore and Mike Iupati are set to enter free agency at the end of the season, meaning that any future contract demands from Davis are unlikely to be met with a warm reception by the front office, particularly given his play to this point.

A two-time Pro Bowler and one-time single-season record-holder for receiving touchdowns by a tight end (13 scores in 2009), Davis undoubtedly still has the ability to make an impact for the Niners in 2014 but, with the former Maryland star now 30 years old, San Francisco could be tempted to try and find a younger replacement.

San Francisco understandably may be reluctant to part with a player who has been a key factor in its offense for so long. Following his struggles this season, however, it is worth assessing what the future holds for Davis in terms of his 49ers career.

Crunching the numbers

Due to his play down through the years with San Francisco, Davis may have felt his request for a new contract was justified.

Prior to the start of the season, Davis had racked up over 5,200 receiving yards and 53 touchdowns with the 49ers, yet despite those gaudy numbers, he had little actual leverage for an extension after being handed a five-year, $37 million extension with $23 million guaranteed in 2010, which at the time made him making the highest-paid tight end in league history.

The Niners also added two high-calibre wide receivers in the offseason in the form of Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd, both of whom are enjoying decent seasons and giving Kaepernick extra options in the passing game, which has further decreased Davis' importance to the offense.

Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints is now the league's highest-paid tight end, however, per Spotrac, Davis' average salary is still ranked at No. 4 in the league among all tight ends, receiving $7.35 million per year.

Spotrac

Davis may feel that he deserves to be earning the same as Graham, however, so far the statistics do not support that claim.

In the five games in which Davis has played, he has just 142 yards on 14 receptions with two touchdowns, both of which came in the Week 1 win over the Dallas Cowboys.

Contrast those numbers to those of his contemporaries, all of whom are outperforming Davis at this point in the year: Graham has put up 435 yards and four touchdowns, while Gronkowski has 558 yards and seven scores.

Furthermore aging San Diego Chargers veteran Antonio Gates and Julius Thomas of the Denver Broncos, a pending free agent in 2015 who is likely set for a lucrative renewal in the offseason, have each recorded nine touchdowns in just eight games thus far. 

The play of Thomas, Gates and Gronkowski has put Davis' own performance in 2014 into an unflattering light.

If the season ended now, it would be difficult to make a case for the 49ers to rework a deal with Davis. But just why has he performed so poorly in 2014?

Breaking down the drop-off

It all started so well for Davis in the opener at Dallas, a game in which he snagged a spectacular 29-yard touchdown pass from Colin Kaepernick before hauling in a two-yard catch for a second score in an easy Niners win.

But since that day it has been all downhill for Davis, who has not come close to replicating that strong showing, with a number of issues blighting his play in 2014.

As alluded to earlier, injuries have restricted Davis' participation this season. An ankle issue kept him out of the Week 3 loss to the Arizona Cardinals and a back problem sustained in the subsequent win over the Philadelphia Eagles forced him to miss the Week 5 victory against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Virtually every NFL player is going to suffer injuries at some point in his career. What has been worrying to see with Davis is how he has performed since his return, producing performances that have been defined by dropped passes and an apparent lack of explosiveness.

In his last two games, Davis has dropped three passes—per Pro Football Focus (subscription required)—with his long-standing tendency to attempt catches with his body instead of his hands again coming to the fore as the one of the key weaknesses of his game.

The drops, which included a potential 25-yard grab in the 42-17 loss at Denver, have been frustrating and yet they are far less concerning than Davis' failure to fully recover from the injuries he has sustained this season.

Simply put, Davis does not look to be the same player who has provided a consistent deep threat for the Niners over the years and is becoming increasingly neglected by Kaepernick because of the superior form of Johnson and Lloyd.

Indeed, his longest catch of the year is the aforementioned 29-yard score against the Cowboys and, for a player who has been reliant on a freakish combination of size and athleticism through his career, the depreciation of his physical skills will certainly not aid his hopes of a lucrative payday and could even signal the beginning of the end of his time in San Francisco.

Replacements

Most would correctly point out that it is a little premature to be predicting the end of Davis' career as a Niner, given his undeniable talent and potential to improve his play in the coming weeks.

What also works in Davis' favor is that his backups have shown little capability to replace his production.

Second-round pick Vance McDonald continues to be a non-factor in the passing game, recording just two receptions for 30 yards this year, although he perhaps would have had a score versus the St. Louis Rams if not for a miscommunication with Davis that saw the duo run into each other in the end zone and drop an easy pass from Kaepernick.

McDonald is enjoying a strong year in terms of run blocking (an underrated strength of Davis) ranking at No. 12 in that area of the game, according to PFF. However, third tight end Derek Carrier has been the better receiver.

Carrier has eight catches for 99 yards, and the fact that he has been arguably the 49ers' most impressive performer at the tight end spot perfectly illustrates San Francisco's struggles at the position and highlights the need for Davis to get back to his best.

But should Davis continue to disappoint, the Niners, with their talent and depth across the board, have the flexibility to bring in a new tight end via the draft.

The prospective 2015 class is not a particularly strong one in terms of tight ends, but there are a number of interesting prospects who have the raw talent to challenge Davis for the starting role down the line.

Michigan's Devin Funchess projects as the player perhaps best served to fulfill the same role as Davis as a pass-catcher. Funchess has operated as more of a wide receiver in 2014 but fits the mould of the modern tight end due to his ability to operate on the line or in the slot. 

A strong route-runner with impressive leaping ability and decent speed, the 6'5", 230-pound Funchess has a similar skill set to that of Davis, however, there are considerable concerns over his run blocking, which is unlikely to improve with Wolverine playing an extended amount of time at receiver.

Rutgers' Tyler Kroft and Ohio State's Jeff Heuerman each possess a similar blend of size and athletic ability but have the same issues in run blocking.

But San Francisco, due to the Niners' commitment to a physical ground game, is the perfect environment for young tight ends such as Funchess and Kroft to improve their blocking and potentially make a case to unseat Davis at some point in the future.

Final Thoughts

For the injury-hit 49ers and Davis, the bye week came at the perfect time. 

Hopefully refreshed, Davis will now have to prove that he can still deliver and, if history is anything to go by, the smart money says that he can. 

But San Francisco's last two games have provided a glimpse of what a significant downturn could look like for Davis, and it will not have impressed a Niners front office that he attempted to pressure into boosting his salary in the offseason.

It is too soon to conclude that Davis' days in the Bay Area are numbered, especially when you consider the numbers he has put up in years gone by.

However, the years appear to be having a negative impact on the 49ers' starting tight end and, with that in mind, it could be a smart decision by the organization to target reinforcements at the position in next year's draft to put pressure on and remotivate a player who has cut a frustrated figure in 2014.

Nicholas McGee is a San Francisco 49ers Featured Columnist based in Leeds, England. Follow him on Twitter @nicholasmcgee24.