Cincinnati Reds: Starting Pitchers Most Likely to Be Traded This Winter

Every Cincinnati Reds fan knows that the club has some big decisions to make when it comes to its starting rotation this winter. The question everyone wants to know is who will stay and who will go.

Four of the five members of the 2014 rotation are set to be free agents after the 2015 season. Homer Bailey is the only one of the starting pitchers who is locked up for the future. Cincinnati signed the former first-round pick to a six-year, $105 million deal last offseason, so he's not going anywhere.

That means Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon are all facing uncertain futures. With some of the big contracts the Reds have handed out in recent years, the club is likely only going to be able to keep two of the first three on that list—and even that would be pushing it.

Cincinnati has Robert Stephenson, Michael Lorenzen and Ben Lively showing promise in the minor leagues. However, none of them will likely be ready to start next season in the majors. The team did sign Cuban right-hander Raisel Iglesias earlier this year, but it's not clear when he is expected to make it up to the big leagues.

The Reds have some talented arms in the minors. That type of depth will allow the team to at least consider dealing a member or two of its current rotation in order to try to address other needs.

Keep reading to see which starting pitcher is the most likely to be traded by the team this offseason. 

Mat Latos

Al Behrman/Associated Press

The Reds will likely have to decide between Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto for the future. Based on performance in recent seasons, Cueto would probably be the choice. However, that doesn't mean that Latos will get traded this winter.

Back at the trade deadline, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the Reds were "dangling" Latos and looking for a "big return." It's not clear how interested the team is in trading the right-hander, but at this point, it probably wouldn't be able to get a fair value back in return.

There's no denying that Latos would be the No. 1 pitcher on most staffs. In the four seasons in which he has made at least 31 starts, he has won 14 games three times. He is 33-16 with a 3.31 ERA in three seasons with the Reds. His earned run average with Cincinnati is lower than it was with the San Diego Padres. That's impressive.

Unfortunately for him, he has dealt with plenty of injuries over the past year.

Latos had to miss the 2013 National League Wild Card Game with bone chips in his elbow. He spent last offseason recovering from surgery to remove the bone chips, but on the first official day of spring training this year, he slipped while throwing and tore the meniscus in his left knee.

After having knee surgery, he was out until June. He made 16 very good starts but then was scratched at the end of the season because of a bone bruise in his pitching elbow.

The 26-year-old is a very talented pitcher. He had been a workhorse since coming to the majors, throwing at least 184 innings from 2010 to 2013. He not only eats innings, but he keeps his team in games every time out.

Sure, any team would love to have Latos. However, with his recent injury history, would the Reds really be able to get a fair return for him? Not likely. 

Chances of being traded before 2015 season: Close to none

Johnny Cueto

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Outside of Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, there hasn't been a better pitcher than Johnny Cueto in the league since the beginning of the 2011 season. Given that fact, why would Cincinnati trade him?

The easy answer is that he would bring back the most in return. Outside of Aroldis Chapman, nobody on this roster has more value than Cueto.

The right-hander has a career 3.27 ERA in seven seasons with the Reds. That number is pretty impressive, but it doesn't do the pitcher justice. Once he added a twist to his windup a few years ago, he has been among the best in the game.

Here are Cueto's earned run averages for the past four seasons: 2.31 (2011), 2.78 (2012), 2.82 (2013) and 2.25 (2014).

Cincinnati's ace won 20 games this year, which tied for the second most in all of baseball. He led the league in innings pitched (243.2) and tied for the lead in strikeouts (242). He did all of that while pitching half of his games at Great American Ball Park. Not many pitchers could put up those kind of numbers in the hitter-friendly park.

The 28-year-old is a bit older than Latos (26), but with such a slight age difference, it likely won't come into play when deciding which pitcher to keep. 

The Reds hold a $10 million option on Cueto for 2015. Given that he would've won with the National League Cy Young award had it not been for Kershaw, that's a bargain. However, he's likely going to demand an even bigger contract than the one Homer Bailey received last offseason.

It's an interesting conundrum for the team to deal with this winter. Cueto is obviously one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, so keeping him would be logical. That said, would the team be better off trading its ace and bringing back some pieces for the future? Or would the fact that the right-hander is set to be a free agent after next year make it so that the club couldn't get a huge return?

Cincinnati will likely discuss extensions with both Cueto and Latos this winter. Who knows what will come of those talks? If the Reds end up getting blown away by an offer for Cueto from another team, they will certainly have to consider pulling the trigger—especially if an extension doesn't appear likely. 

Chances of being traded before 2015 season: Possible but not probable

Alfredo Simon

Al Behrman/Associated Press

After making the National League All-Star team in 2014, Alfredo Simon will be somewhat of a mystery next season.

The veteran has been a starter for two full seasons in his career. With the Baltimore Orioles back in 2011, he went 3-8 with a 4.96 ERA in 16 starts. He has grown as a pitcher since coming to Cincinnati in 2012, which helps explain why he had a breakout season this year.

Simon started the season as a replacement for Mat Latos but quickly earned a spot in the rotation by putting up strong numbers. He went 15-10 with a 3.44 ERA in 32 starts. He threw a career-high 196.1 innings, which topped his previous best by more than 80 innings.

The increased workload did appear to affect the right-hander. He made the NL All-Star team after going 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA in the first half of the season; he went 3-7 with a 4.52 ERA in his final 14 starts of the season.

Simon had trouble going deep into games after the All-Star break. However, he was able to rebound and finish the season on a high note. He recorded a quality start in five of his final seven starts of the season.

The 33-year-old had been a solid arm in the Reds bullpen the previous two seasons, and without him in it, the bullpen struggled last season. Knowing that, manager Bryan Price, per MLB.com's Manny Randhawa, still expects Simon to be part of the rotation next season—barring a trade.

Simon made only $1.5 million this past season. This winter, he will be eligible for arbitration for the third time, so the All-Star will be in line for a nice raise.

Without much of a track record as a starter, nobody knows how Simon will follow up his breakout performance next season. Every other pitcher in the rotation provides more value than Simon, especially considering his age. That doesn't mean that Simon couldn't bring back a decent bat or some young arms in a trade this offseason.

Chances of being traded before 2015 season: 50-50

Mike Leake

Al Behrman/Associated Press

As valuable as Mike Leake has been to Cincinnati since getting drafted in the first round of the 2009 draft, he appears to be the most likely to be traded.

Outside of a rough 2012 season, the right-hander has been very impressive through the first five seasons of his career this offseason.

Leake is 53-42 with a 3.92 ERA in 147 games through his first five seasons. Don't forget that he went from college straight to the majors. He learned how to pitch to big leaguers very quickly and continues to get better.

In 2013, he went 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 31 starts. His ERA rose to 3.70 in 2014, but he started going deeper into games this past season, as he threw a career-high 214.1 innings this year. A 3.70 ERA and 214.1 innings? Every team in the league wishes that its No. 4 starter put up numbers like those.

Of course, the 26-year-old can also handle the bat at the plate. Although his average dropped to a career-low .176 this year, he has a career .234 average. He did, however, set a personal best in extra-base hits this year with seven (two home runs and five doubles).

Having his bat in the lineup helps the offense every fifth day. He has done much better at keeping his team in the game on the mound, and he has the ability to help himself at the plate.

Leake would be more valuable to a National League team than he would be to an American League club. It would make more sense to trade him to the other league if possible, but an NL team may be willing to offer more for him, given his bat. He does have a 3.56 ERA in 17 career starts against AL teams, so changing leagues wouldn't be an issue. The switch would just limit how much he could impact a game.

Leake made $5.925 million this past season. He is eligible for arbitration for the third time this offseason, and he is going to get a bump in salary. In any potential long-term deal, he isn't likely to get Homer Bailey-like money. However, he's going to get eight figures per season. 

The Reds may be able to sign Cueto or Latos and still have some money left for Leake. That's definitely a possibility. Keeping two of the three would be ideal, but if it's not possible, Leake appears to be the most likely of the group to be traded. Latos' string of injuries has hurt his value, and a team would be crazy not to do everything possible to keep a pitcher of Cueto's caliber.

Leake could bring back a nice return that would help the team on offense without it having to give up one of its front-of-the-rotation pitchers.

It's not clear how likely it is that one of the Reds' starting pitchers will be traded this offseason. General manager Walt Jocketty, per MLB.com's Mark Sheldon, has already said that he'd like to find a way to keep everyone in the rotation.

It's not likely that the team will be able to sign all of the starting pitchers to long-term deals, so a trade or two could happen this winter. If that happens, look for Leake to be involved in plenty of rumors. 

Chances of being traded before 2015 season: Most likely of the group to be traded

*All stats are via MLB.com. Contract information is via BaseballProspectus.com.