Bears vs. Patriots: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

After early-season turmoil, the New England Patriots have stabilized and re-established themselves as the class of the AFC East.  However, division titles have not been the standard in Foxborough for years, and the Pats' viability as Super Bowl contenders remains ambiguous.

The next six games will reveal plenty about the Pats, who have the toughest schedule remaining in the league, based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.  The 3-4 Chicago Bears, fraught with internal upheaval, might seem like the easiest opponent in New England's upcoming stretch.  Despite inconsistencies from their premier players, however, the Bears possess elite talent that makes them capable of defeating any team.

Compounding things is the sobering realization that the Patriots' early-season injury luck has finally dried up.  After playing four games over 18 days, New England's medical list includes plenty of players struggling through various maladies.  A couple of key injuries are sure to affect the complexion of upcoming contests.

Much like they did against the New York Jets last Thursday, the Patriots will need to grind out victories against increasingly difficult opponents.  It is unclear where New England will stand in the NFL hierarchy at the end of this brutal stretch, but in examining the most insightful national perspectives from the past week, we can elucidate how people view the battered Patriots at the moment.

Tedy Bruschi: Jets Provided Blueprint

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Although the Pats escaped with their third consecutive win, Thursday's victory over the New York Jets raised as many alarms as reasons for celebration.  As ESPN analyst and ex-Patriot Tedy Bruschi opines, Rex Ryan's crew may have once again provided a blueprint for defeating New England moving forward, per WEEI:

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I think they can get better, but I think some of those things you saw in that game vs. the Jets is what you’re going to get when certain teams want to attack them a certain way, especially defensively. If they want to make that commitment to running the ball, I think teams will have success. If you want to have a game, as an offense, going against the Patriots, just get it in third and manageable. I think that’s very achievable in terms of first and down based on the run game and some of the players that the Patriots have. They may be struggling against the run at the linebacker level.

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Indeed, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the Jets averaged 5.4 yards per carry running at the left B-gap (between the left tackle and left guard) and the left A-gap (between the left guard and center).  Those issues with interior run fits may have simply stemmed from fatigue, as the Pats were playing their fourth game in 18 days. 

Nonetheless, with Jerod Mayo lost for the season and Jamie Collins' appearing tentative in run support, the Pats are facing a dearth of thumpers who can clog gaps and provide some pushback against physical power package offenses like the Jets. Unheralded players like Casey Walker and Chris Jones have supplied meaningful snaps this season, but the Pats do not have many run-stuffing two-gappers apart from Vince Wilfork.

Over the next six weeks, expect teams to challenge New England's lack of depth in the front seven and set up 3rd-and-short situations.  By avoiding 3rd-and-long situations, where the Patriots' press cover corners can wreak havoc on the timing of deeper route combinations, opponents can thus mitigate New England's greatest defensive advantage.

Chris Burke: Ayers a Low-Risk Gamble

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

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Worth a shot. Ayers a healthy scratch last week. RT @NEPD_Loyko: According to @jwyattsports the #Patriots have acquired LB Akeem Ayers

— Chris Burke (@ChrisBurke_SI) October 21, 2014"

The Pats have made a habit in recent seasons of trading for low-risk, medium- or high-reward veterans.  Akeem Ayers represents the 2014 rendition of that pattern, as New England swapped a sixth-rounder for the former Tennessee Titan, plus a seventh-rounder.

If Ayers rediscovers his 2013 form, this trade could go down as a coup for the Patriots.  As a strong-side outside linebacker in Tennessee's 4-3 scheme, Ayers ranked fourth overall among 4-3 outside linebackers with a cumulative plus-11.1 overall grade.  That included a plus-7.9 pass-rushing grade that ranked second at the position, behind only Denver's Von Miller.

But the Titans overhauled their coaching staff this offseason, and Ayers was ill-suited for Ray Horton's hybrid 3-4 system.  The 2011 second-rounder had suited up for just 10 defensive snaps over a single game, Tennessee's Week 5 loss to Cleveland.  While veterans Kamerion Wimbley, Derrick Morgan and Shaun Phillips have also struggled in the system, Ayers' inability to participate in the preseason due to offseason surgeries on both patellar tendons likely stunted his development in the system and consequently limited his playing time.

A pair of knee surgeries for a speed edge-rusher can be a deathblow, so Pats fans would be wise to temper their expectations for Ayers despite his 2013 breakthrough.  But New England had demonstrated interest in the former UCLA Bruin during the draft process, during which Ayers told WEEI's Christopher Price that he would be "a great fit" in the Patriots' system.

In truth, Ayers' skill set probably aligns closer to Dont'a Hightower than Chandler Jones, though most see him as a replacement for the latter.  Nevertheless, as the Pats search for ways to manufacture pressure without Jones, Ayers is a worthy gamble whose track record suggests that he could stick around as an important niche player.

Pro Football Focus: Brady's Accuracy Improving

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

While injuries have thrown the defense into turmoil, the offense has stabilized despite losing several starters over the past three weeks.  More than anything, Tom Brady's improved play has catalyzed that turnaround, and as Pro Football Focus' Khaled Elsayed notes, No. 12's accuracy has returned to its customary levels:

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Efficient. Brady faced pressure on 16 drop-backs and while he did at times look a little rattled in the second half, he made enough plays to keep the chains moving and avoided turning the ball over. While Sam Monson may not appreciate it, reports of his demise may be premature with this Brady’s fifth grade in the green of the season.

The box score will tell you Brady completed 54% of passes. Yuck, terrible game. It won’t tell you he had four throwaways, one batted pass and four dropped passes. Factor all that magic in and you get an actual adjusted Accuracy Percentage of 77.4%.

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Since his memorable Week 5 bounce-back performance against the Cincinnati Bengals, Brady's 10.04 adjusted yards per attempt ranks third in the league, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning, per Pro-Football-Reference.  Adjusted yards per attempt, which has been shown to hold a greater correlation with winning than any other passing statistic, weights touchdowns and interceptions.  With nine touchdowns and no picks over that three-game span, Brady has effectively carried the team, considering how the running game and defense have plateaued.

Unfortunately, New England's lack of depth at several key positions will likely leave Brady with this burden the entire season.  That's a proven untenable formula in the postseason, but while another championship-less season might reflect negatively on Brady, he is again demonstrating his underappreciated ability to mask flaws throughout the roster.

Mike Sando: Pats Not Locks for AFC East

USA TODAY Sports

While New England's Super Bowl candidacy remains in doubt, three consecutive wins have calmed fears about the Patriots' relinquishing their grasp on the AFC East.  With a 1.5-game division lead, track record would suggest that the Pats are likely to separate themselves in short order. 

However, ESPN's Mike Sando approximates that the Patriots possess just a 45 percent chance of winning the division, a byproduct of a brutal closing schedule (subscription required):

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The best coach-quarterback combination is tough to bet against. However, New England plays the toughest remaining schedule (.590) in the league. The Patriots will face Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and two formidable defenses (Detroit, Miami) in the upcoming weeks -- and that leaves the door open a crack for the next team on this list.

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Sando goes on to suggest that the Miami Dolphins, at 35 percent, possess a reasonable shot at catching the Pats given their earlier victory over New England, as well as Ryan Tannehill's improved play over the past three weeks.  He also pegs the 4-3 Buffalo Bills at 20 percent odds, citing how injuries at running back could put too much on Kyle Orton's plate.

Before Pats fans raise too much hullabaloo, it is important to note that Sando gives higher division-winning odds to only the Indianapolis Colts.  Considering New England's upcoming six-game stretch, 45 percent is far from an unreasonable assertion, as a 2-4 or even 1-5 showing could leave the Patriots scrambling.

Ultimately, Miami's viability as a challenger boils down to Tannehill's viability as a consistent above-average quarterback, something I covered in greater depth here.  The Dolphins' third-year quarterback has teased with stretches of solid play before, but with an excellent defense and a solid running game, his margin for error has increased in 2014.

Thus, the Fins cannot be dismissed as legitimate challengers to the Patriots.  New England's general stability gives them an edge, and it would be surprising to see them provide a meaningful opening to Miami or Buffalo.  Still, with nine games remaining, it is too early to hand the division to the Patriots, especially considering their recent rash of injuries.

Ed Werder: How Pats Will Replace Jones

Elise Amendola/Associated Press

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#Patriots react to Chandler Jones injury by trading with #Titans for Akeem Ayers, talented but inconsistent. Alan Branch added to stop run

— Ed Werder (@Edwerderespn) October 22, 2014"

Chandler Jones' injury is a devastating blow to a defense that did not possess an abundance of edge-rushers to begin with.  The Patriots were fortunate not to suffer from an overreliance on Jones and Rob Ninkovich last season, but their failure to layer the position with meaningful depth this offseason has left New England scrambling for replacement-level bodies in Jones' absence.

We already covered Ayers, but the subsequent acquisition of Alan Branch likely indicates that the Pats will be shifting toward a purer 3-4 base, not unlike what they employed in the season opener against the Miami Dolphins.  New England's personnel were ill-suited to run the two-gapping concepts that day, and the team will likely maintain a one-gapping sub-package, with Ayers subbing in for Jones.  Still, Branch enables the Pats to employ a beefier base package, as his greatest success has come in 3-4 systems.

Branch fell out of favor in Buffalo this season, in large part because of troubling off-field issues.  However, the 29-year-old veteran likely would have been cut anyways because of his poor fit in Jim Schwartz's penetrating 4-3 scheme.  As a 3-4 5-technique defensive end last season, Branch thrived as an early-down run-stuffer, ranking sixth in run-stop percentage among players at his position.

After Chris Ivory throttled the Pats on the ground last week, the Patriots now have a thumping Jumbo base package that could include Branch, Vince Wilfork and Casey Walker on the line and Dont'a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Deontae Skinner and Patrick Chung at the second level for an eight-man box.  Against upcoming power personnel teams like the Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions, that could represent an important antidote against the run.

But no one can replace Jones' pass-rushing gifts or his three-down durability.  The Pats are losing a player who played 86.3 percent of the snaps this season, a number that would be closer to 100 percent if not for an earlier shoulder injury.  Unless they can integrate their new acquisitions seamlessly into the system, the Pats could suffer against an upcoming gauntlet of top offenses.

*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).