Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons are heading in opposite directions as they prepare to meet in London on Sunday. The Lions have won their last two games to improve to 5-2 and tie the Green Bay Packers for the division lead in the NFC North while the Falcons have dropped four in a row both straight up and against the spread to fall 1.5 games behind the first-place Carolina Panthers in the NFC South.

Point spread: Lions opened as three-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.7-18.0 Lions

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit is quite simply the much better team in this matchup and seems to be doing everything right that went wrong last year under former head coach Jim Schwartz. New head coach Jim Caldwell has gotten the Lions to focus on the little things and been able to give All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson the rest he needs for his ailing ankle. Whether Johnson is able to return this week or not—he is planning on making the trip—this Detroit team has been able to rise above almost everything so far this season.

The perfect example came in last week’s 24-23 comeback win over the New Orleans Saints at home. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions yet was still able to rebound with two touchdown passes in the last 3:38 to pull off the victory.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

Atlanta may not be the better team right now, but there is plenty of talent on the roster to get the job done. This may not be a true road game for the Falcons or the Lions in London either, so maybe the former can start playing like the latter knowing they are not going into enemy territory. Atlanta’s road woes do not really include NFC North opponents, as the team is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games vs. the division.

The Falcons are also 4-1 ATS in their past five road games prior to their bye week. They are also playing in a winnable division themselves and can get back into the race with a win here before their bye.

Smart Pick

It’s hard to trust Atlanta playing anywhere but the Georgia Dome nowadays, and even that venue has not guaranteed a victory for the team lately. Both teams will be heading into their bye weeks after this game, and the Falcons are way more desperate in this spot compared to the Lions, who are not a great road team either and have to be content with where they stand right now.

Detroit is just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games before a bye and 3-10 vs. the line in the last 13 meetings with Atlanta. The Lions also have not performed well as favorites recently, going 3-7 ATS in their past 10. While they are the better team, the Falcons have what it takes to cover here and possibly win.

Betting trends

• Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last five games when playing Atlanta
• The total has gone UNDER in four of Atlanta's last six games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.