Gus Bradley's Jaguars Finally Earn a Win His Way

Despite Gus Bradley saying at his opening press conference that his Jacksonville Jaguars wouldn't aim to have their games "be 10-7" scores, the undercurrent was always there.

The Jaguars ran quite a bit more often than their game scripts would have you expect in 2013, per Pro Football Focus, and only the strong ineptitude that Jacksonville has shown on the ground has prevented the run game from being the root of the offense.

However, a change may be on the horizon, as seen in the Jaguars' 24-6 home win over the Cleveland Browns.

Bradley and general manager Dave Caldwell have been trying to fix the run game since the pair first landed in Jacksonville. The Jaguars spent 2013's No. 2 overall pick on left tackle Luke Joeckel and a 2014 third-round pick on offensive guard Brandon Linder. Prior to this season, they spent free-agent dollars on Broncos guard Zane Beadles (five years, $30 million) and Vikings running back Toby Gerhart (three years, $10.5 million).

In 2013, the Jaguars finished 31st in rushing DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) per Football Outsiders.

And this year, surprisingly, things had been staying the same. Gerhart and the new-look Jaguars offensive line were...31st in rushing DVOA coming into Week 7. But, between a flammable Browns defense and a change to Denard Robinson—the third running back to start for the Jaguars in as many weeks—Bradley's Jaguars finally were able to win a game on his terms. 

While Robinson hadn't exactly been effective in limited duty earlier this season, it's not a surprise he gave Jacksonville its best chance to win if you look at the numbers the backs have put up this season. And, frankly, as Robinson was considered the high-upside option, it was baffling that Bradley hadn't given him a clear chance up until today. 

Player	DYAR	DVOA	Week 7
Toby Gerhart	-72	-39.7%	DNP
Denard Robinson	-7	-14.9%	22 carries, 127 yards, TD
Storm Johnson	-6	-18.8%	6 carries, 16 yards, TD

With Gerhart out to heal his foot injury, the Jaguars had their first positive run-offense DVOA of Bradley's career last week against the Titans. While this week's DVOA has yet to be calculated, it'd be stunning if Jacksonville didn't make that two weeks in a row after Robinson's 22-carry, 127-yard performance. 

Of course, the other half of Bradley's blueprint—the "7" in "10-7"—is his defense's ability to shut down opposing offenses. While the Jacksonville defense started the year giving up humongous gains left and right, the team hit a turning point after Week 4's loss to the Chargers.

Here's how the defensive DVOA has shifted since then:

Week	Opponent	Defensive DVOA	Pass Defense DVOA	Run Defense DVOA
1	@ PHI	-20.7%	-30.0%	-8.0%
2	v. WAS	27.4%	47.0%	10.7%
3	v. IND	29.7%	55.3%	-10.1%
4	@ SD	19.3%	50.9%	-44.8%
5	v. PIT	4.4%	12.5%	-7.5%
6	@ TEN	-11.7%	-1.9%	-25.4%

Of course, it helps your pass defense when Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers get replaced by Charlie Whitehurst and Brian Hoyer, but the most sustainable improvement is in the running game. The Jaguars shut down Cleveland's fifth-ranked DVOA run offense, holding it to just 69 yards on 30 carries. Jacksonville has also benefited from cutting ties with safety Winston Guy, who was responsible for a plurality of its big plays so far this season. 

The Bradley blueprint is finally working as it is supposed to. It took the Jaguars long enough to get it together, something that may worry the front office if they continue to make a habit of slow starts, but the Jags are now in prime position to play spoiler down the stretch. 

The Jaguars are still very much a team of "if." If the offensive line can hold up; if the run game can play; if Bortles can avoid the rookie mistakes he's made so far. But, over the past few weeks, we've seen that they're actually capable of answering "if" with "yes." Which is a far cry from where they were five weeks ago, when they seemed destined to play out the string with Chad Henne and a bad defense. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars are building something. Finally, we have seen evidence that Gus Bradley's blueprint for that something can actually work.

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.