Fantasy Basketball Sleepers: Ranking the Top 10 Picks for 2014-15
Given the wealth of information available today, the term "sleeper" is becoming increasingly more difficult to define. Do enough research and you'll find that the fantasy world really isn't sleeping on anyone at this point.
Still, the ultimate goal in uncovering this type of talent hasn't changed. Fantasy owners may no longer be looking to unearth a hidden gem, but they're still searching for value at a discounted rate.
There are a number of different avenues toward finding that type of player.
It could be nabbing an unproven rookie before he has had the chance to drive up his price tag inside the lines. It might involve beating the fantasy world to an old top performer who is primed to reclaim his old spot. Or, for the astute offseason observers, it could be grabbing a guy whose chance at having a statistical surge improved immensely over the summer.
As long as it brings back production at a bargain price, it is a worthwhile investment.
For the 10 players on this list, their stock has yet to match their potential. By looking over their skill sets, situations and projected statistics, these players—all worth rostering in a 10-team league, though some may not need to be added on draft night—have been ranked from lowest to highest in terms of the fantasy impact they could make in the 2014-15 season.
10. James Ennis, SF, Miami Heat
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ESPN Average Draft Position: 140.0
Miami Heat swingman James Ennis fits the traditional definition of a fantasy sleeper, and he's a deep one at that. He is owned in only 1.3 percent of ESPN.com leagues, and it's somewhat surprising the number is even that high.
While there is no need to draft him outside the deepest of leagues, the former Long Beach State standout deserves a place on your fantasy radar. He has the same preseason scoring average as No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins (14.5) and a significantly better field-goal percentage (52.9 to 42.9).
And Ennis is only scratching the surface of his potential.
"I think with James we've found a diamond in the rough," Heat center Chris Bosh said, per Shandel Richardson of the Sun Sentinel. "His athletic ability, his shooting and his playmaking ability is second to none. He has a tremendous upside."
Ennis also has a tremendous chance to tap into that potential this season.
His primary job will involve backing up Luol Deng (who has missed an average of 13 games the past three seasons), and he could also see some playing time behind Dwyane Wade (who missed 29 contests in 2013-14). Danny Granger will also factor into the wing rotation, but the 31-year-old has been limited to 46 games the past two seasons combined.
Ennis is a good scorer and rebounder who should also provide some help in steals and assists. While he is going largely undrafted for now, don't expect him to go unclaimed on the waiver wire for too long.
9. Bojan Bogdanovic, SG, Brooklyn Nets
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ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 140.0
Preseason production can be comforting to see, but really what fantasy owners should be searching for are trends.
As Tim Bontemps of the New York Post explained, the way the Brooklyn Nets have treated 25-year-old rookie Bojan Bogdanovic so far bodes well for his stat sheet going forward:
"Bojan Bogdanovic appears to have the fifth starting spot sewn up.
No, Bogdanovic didn’t play lights-out in Shanghai, but he did get the most minutes on the team, and for the second straight game was part of the starting lineup. Though he didn’t knock down any of his three open 3-pointers, the fact he got those wide-open looks is exactly why it seems likely he’s going to wind up there.
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Bogdanovic hasn't shown it yet this preseason, but he packs a powerful three-point cannon in his arsenal. He shot 40.5 percent or better from deep in two of his last three Euroleague seasons.
He is not, however, simply a shooting specialist. He is a crafty scorer who can beat defenders in different ways. Having Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez all on the floor will limit Bogdanovic's chances to create for himself, but the Nets are unlikely to keep him bound to the short corners.
He won't be a multi-category star, but his offensive skills and opportunity will allow him to easily outperform his average draft position.
8. K.J. McDaniels, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
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Word is getting out on the intriguing potential of Philadelphia 76ers rookie K.J. McDaniels, but it still hasn't stripped him of his status as a strong value buy.
First-year players can be risky acquisitions, but the Sixers don't operate like most NBA teams. This is a club that won 19 games last season and might have taken a step back since. That roster at least opened the campaign with three proven commodities in Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes, none of whom still call the City of Brotherly Love home.
McDaniels is almost without competition for a starting gig on the wing. His primary "threats" are Hollis Thompson, Alexey Shved, Luc Mbah a Moute and Tony Wroten. No matter how Sixers coach Brett Brown builds his opening lineup, McDaniels seems like a lock to play a major role.
The 6'6" wing took home Defensive Player of the Year honors in the ACC last season after averaging 2.8 blocks and 1.1 steals. It was his second consecutive year with at least two rejections and one theft per night.
His biggest fantasy asset will be his defensive stats, but he also has value as a three-point shooter and complementary rebounder. He shot 63.6 percent from distance at the Orlando Summer League and averaged 7.1 boards during his final season at Clemson.
7. Jordan Hill, PF/C, Los Angeles Lakers
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ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 106.5
You didn't think this list was going to be entirely filled with rookies, did you?
Well, here's the thing. In a lot of ways, this might feel like a rookie season for former lottery pick Jordan Hill—and that's a good thing.
He never has had the chance to fully showcase his skills on the NBA stage. The 20.8 nightly minutes that came his way last season were a career high, and those were spent in a system that couldn't have catered less to his strengths. Before the start of the campaign, the energetic bruiser went searching for a jump shot no one actually expected him to find.
He still managed to engineer a career year, posting personal bests in points (9.7), rebounds (7.4), blocks (0.9), field-goal percentage (54.9), player efficiency rating (19.3) and win shares (4.4). And he did that sticking to what he does best. Over 77 percent of his field-goal attempts came within 10 feet of the basket, a higher percentage than he has averaged over his career (71.7).
His five NBA seasons have all hinted at what he could do in a major role. Only once has he failed to average a double-double per 36 minutes.
"Hill only needs to play," wrote Bleacher Report's Dan Favale. "He's been pulling the weight of an above-average player for years. He just doesn't have the minutes recognition to show for it."
Surrounded by the likes of Ed Davis, Carlos Boozer, rookie Julius Randle and Robert Sacre in the frontcourt, Hill should no longer have trouble finding consistent playing time.
6. Terrence Jones, PF, Houston Rockets
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ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 83.5
Houston Rockets forward Terrence Jones is a quick learner.
Two seasons ago, the Kentucky product could barely find the floor. He spent more of his rookie year with the D-League's Rio Grande Valley Vipers (24 games) than he did with the Rockets (19).
Last season, he cemented his place in Houston—and probably had a much better year than you realize.
His counting stats were solid: 12.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and 1.1 assists. But his efficiency is where he really shined. He ranked eighth in turnover percentage (8.2), 11th in effective field-goal percentage (56.4), 12th in offensive rating (118.8) and 16th in block percentage (3.5).
In other words, he maximized his opportunities and minimized his mistakes during what was essentially his first true taste of NBA action.
His next go-round promises to be even more impressive.
He has a full year in a featured role under his belt, so he knows exactly what to expect. And his place in the offensive pecking order should be climbing with high-volume contributors Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin having vacated Space City over the offseason.
Jones has enough intelligence and ability to maintain his quality while his stat sheet sees a significant rise in quantity.
5. Jeremy Lin, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
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ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 94.2
Jeremy Lin may or may not be the Los Angeles Lakers' point guard of the future, but he's just about their only one for the present. Regardless how you feel about his game, you have to feel good about landing a high-volume point guard where he has been coming off the draft board.
Before looking at Lin himself, just look at his current position.
The Lakers have three other point guards on their depth chart. Lin's biggest challenger is the 40-year-old Steve Nash, who recently hurt himself while carrying his bags, per The Associated Press. Another is Ronnie Price, who made 31 appearances for the 23-win Orlando Magic last season. The last is Jordan Clarkson, a combo guard who was selected after 45 other players in this past draft.
If there is any concern about Lin's playing time for fantasy owners, it's that he could be overexposed by mammoth-sized minutes allotments. As long as he avoids the injury imp, though, that isn't much of a concern.
Lin's usage percentage dropped during each of the last two seasons, and his per-game production fell right along with it. Considering he's been at his best with the ball in his hands, that was hardly a surprise.
Give him chances and he typically does something with them. He has averaged at least 14.9 points, 5.2 assists and 1.2 steals per 36 minutes over the past two seasons. He should have every opportunity to add to those numbers, and his recent addition of a reliable three ball (1.2 makes per night, 35.8 percent last season) makes him an even more desirable fantasy commodity.
4. Larry Sanders, C, Milwaukee Bucks
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ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 89.5
Milwaukee Bucks big man Larry Sanders had a disastrous 2013-14 season, plagued both by injury problems and off-the-court issues.
Apparently, the damage done was serious enough to greatly diminish his fantasy stock for this season.
For savvy owners in need of blocks, boards and a handful of buckets, Sanders' low stock is a blaring alarm to bring him on board.
As a shot-blocker alone, he might be the best in the business. Consider this: He has more career rejections per 36 minutes (3.5) and a higher career block percentage (7.3) than both Serge Ibaka (3.4 and 7.2) and Anthony Davis (2.6 and 6.0).
Before dubbing Sanders as a specialist, though, realize he nearly produced a nightly double-double during his last full season (9.8 points and 9.5 boards in 2012-13). Also take into account that he shot 50.6 percent from the field that year and played fewer than 28 minutes a night.
Stretch that season across a per-36-minute scale and Sanders was good for 12.9 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.7 blocks. No one has averaged 12 points, 12 rebounds and 3.5 blocks since the 1992-93 season, and only five players have ever done it: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Dikembe Mutombo, Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson.
There is certainly a risk involved with drafting Sanders, but the potential reward could be historically sweet.
3. Thaddeus Young, SF/PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
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ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 51.7
There is no way for the Minnesota Timberwolves to completely replace an All-NBA talent like Kevin Love, and versatile forward Thaddeus Young isn't going to attempt to do so.
What Young can do, however, is dig into the fantasy feast Love left behind in the Gopher State. If Young isn't a pivotal part of your draft plan, then you aren't drafting right.
"Filling Kevin Love's vacated lineup spot, coming off career-highs in points (17.9), steals (2.1) and threes (1.1) and now gets to play with pass-first point guard Ricky Rubio? Yes please," wrote Rotoworld's Matt Stroup (via Yahoo Sports).
Young has made his fantasy living as a jack-of-all-trades. He was the NBA's only player to average at least 17 points, six rebounds, two assists and two steals last season. While he shot just 45.4 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from long range, his career success rates (50.0 and 32.1 respectively) show upward mobility in both.
There's a chance his counting categories could dip a bit, as he'll be surrounded by legitimate NBA talent this time around. But with so much youth on Minnesota's roster he should be leaned on heavily enough to retain most of his production.
Whatever he loses in volume, he stands to gain in efficiency. Between Rubio's court vision, Kevin Martin's shooting, Nikola Pekovic's low-post offense and the athleticism of the Timberpups, defenses won't be able to key on slowing Young.
2. Jabari Parker, SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks
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ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 44.4
A second Milwaukee Buck? You better believe it, thanks to the massive amount of production that should be up for grabs this season.
With Jason Kidd at the helm and athletic specimens littering the roster, the Bucks should be looking to push the tempo whenever possible. Last season, Milwaukee played at the seventh-slowest pace, averaging only 94.28 possessions per 48 minutes.
Running has its obvious perks in the fantasy world—especially in leagues that don't count turnovers—but that's not the only reason I'm feeling bullish on Jabari Parker.
The one-and-done Duke product has both the best statistical setup of his draft class and the most developed offensive weapons.
"Parker is being plugged into a rare, prime role for fantasy-rookie production: franchise savior," John Cregan wrote for ESPN.com. "He arrives with a polished skill set on the offensive end and should lead all rookies in scoring."
Brandon Knight led this team in scoring with 17.9 points a night. He also shot just 42.2 percent from the field and 32.5 percent from downtown. The Bucks need an offensive focal point.
Parker, who scores well from anywhere on the court, can fill that void. Throw in his strong presence on the glass, and he could be a fantasy stud right out of the gate.
1. Jrue Holiday, PG, New Orleans Pelicans
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ESPN.com Average Draft Position: 57.1
New Orleans Pelicans point guard Jrue Holiday has been hinting at a monstrous fantasy breakout in recent seasons.
In 2012-13, he enjoyed tremendous volume, setting career marks with 17.7 points and 8.0 assists. Last season, his first in New Orleans, he set or matched his personal bests in field-goal percentage (44.7) and three-point percentage (39.0). He also sliced his turnovers from a terrifying 3.7 per game to a more manageable 3.1 a night.
There are reasons to believe this could be the year when it all comes together.
On the efficiency end, he should be surrounded by a wealth of offensive talent. The Pelicans couldn't stay healthy together last season, but when they did, the results were remarkable: 123.5 points per 100 possessions during the 91 minutes Holiday played with Anthony Davis, Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans and Ryan Anderson.
Holiday has the size, strength, speed and soft shooting touch to wreak havoc out of the pick-and-roll. In Davis and Omer Asik, Holiday also has two of the best roll men in basketball.
Obviously, there are a lot of offensive mouths to feed, so it might be difficult for Holiday to add a lot to his counting stats. But he doesn't need much to be special. He averaged 14.3 points, 7.9 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.6 steals last season. Only two players matched that production: Stephen Curry and Chris Paul, both of whom are being selected with top-five picks.
If Holiday is healthy and so are the players around him, he could deliver near-elite-level production at a middling price.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
