What We Learned from the St. Louis Cardinals' Game 3 Loss to the Giants

The National League Championship Series is getting away from the St. Louis Cardinals.

The errant throw by Cardinals reliever Randy Choate that unceremoniously spoiled the team’s Game 3 tilt, a 5-4 loss in 10 innings, is a stirring allusion to how things seem to be slipping away.

St. Louis is playing a game where mental mistakes, injuries and lack of production are commonplace. Though the Cardinals only trail the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in the series, the mounting issues make the deficit seem daunting.

The Redbirds are looking to make their third trip to the World Series in four seasons. Funny thing is, they look nothing like a team that’s been there before.

Choate’s 10th-inning blunder cost the team a victory, but his is not the only mistake the Cardinals have made this series.

St. Louis ranked second in the majors with 64 defensive runs saved during the regular season, according to MLB.com. In the series opener, a 3-0 loss, the team surrendered all three runs on defensive blunders.

“It comes down to us doing the things we do on a consistent basis, and our pitchers need help at times," Matheny told Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. "If we make plays we typically make, you're looking at a 0-0 game."

A big takeaway from Game 3 is that mental mistakes are amplified in the playoffs, and St. Louis needs to shake them in order to claim the series.

The Redbirds also need to mend a few broken wings. The exclusion of Yadier Molina from the Game 3 lineup was glaring; he hadn't missed a playoff game for the team in 83 games. Molina strained his left oblique in the team’s Game 2 win and is likely out for the remainder of the series.

Molina is viewed as the team’s heartbeat and perhaps the greatest defensive catcher since Ivan Rodriguez.

"It's almost like he can look right into a hitter's soul," St. Louis starting pitcher Shelby Miller said during spring training. “And Yadier knows what to do with that. He stares at the hitter, and you can see him thinking. ‘What pitch can't you hit right now.' And if he calls the pitch, then you know that's got to be the one. You throw it, and it works. He's thinking the entire game. He's aware of everything that's going on.”

The catcher’s command of the pitching staff was sorely missed in Game 3, where the Giants jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning. According to MLB.com, San Francisco’s four-run first inning was its highest output in the opening frame of a postseason game since they amassed six off the legendary Smokey Joe Wood of Boston in Game 7 of the 1912 World Series.

The Game 3 loss also puts added pressure on Cardinals’ ace Adam Wainwright, the team’s likely starter in Game 5. The injured righty didn’t last past the fifth inning for a second-straight postseason start in Game 1. It marked the first time Wainwright has failed to pitch at least five innings in back-to-back starts in his career.

“My arm doesn't feel great but it certainly should be a lot better results-wise than that," Wainwright said to ESPN.com after dropping Game 1,"I should be able to repeat my pitches."

Chris Lee/AP Photos

Another issue from Game 3 was the continued lack of production from the heart of the St. Louis lineup. Matt Holliday, Matt Adams and Jhonny Peralta have been dismal this series, combining for a .121 average in the first three games.

Molina also is missed for his offensive output in this situation. He was hitting .333 in the first two games of the series and carries a .290 post season average in his career. His replacement, A.J. Pierzynski, went 0-for-4 in Game 3.

Two games this series have been decided by one run. According to MLB.com, Game 3 marked the 12th time in 21 postseason games this month that the outcome has been determined by one run. The Cardinals have been involved in five of those games after playing 55 one-run games (the most by the club since 1998) during the regular season.

With this in mind, having the middle of the order produce more for the Cardinals becomes that much more important.

Game 3 was a crucial one for St. Louis. Though all games in a series this deep in the playoffs are huge, legging out a win in this one would have put history on the side of the Cardinals. Historically, in series that are tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the series 71 percent of the time, according to MLB.com.

Looking forward, Wainwright’s start in Game 5 is crucial. He will likely face San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner, who shut out the Cardinals in Game 1.

If St. Louis can scratch out a win with Shelby Miller on the hill in Game 4, and then take Game 5 with Wainwright, it’ll be in good shape. However, even with a Game 4 win, I don’t see the Cardinals getting past how good Bumgarner has been this postseason. He hasn’t allowed a run in 26.2 innings , a postseason MLB record. With the loss of Molina and the costly mistakes made by the St. Louis earlier in the series, things will likely end with Bumgarner celebrating with his teammates on the mound in Game 5.