St. Louis Cardinals vs. S.F. Giants: Keys for Each Team to Win NLCS Game 4

A walk-off error is not exactly the stuff of legend. Nevertheless, Randy Choate's 10th-inning miscue gave the game and the National League Championship Series lead to the San Francisco Giants heading into Game 4.

Games 1 and 2 in St. Louis were split, thanks to some Madison Bumgarner and Kolten Wong heroics, in that order.

Game 3 seemed to pick right up where the second left off: another Cardinals home run, more clutch hitting from San Francisco and a failure from either team to get length out of its starting pitching.

As the series stands, although it's been pretty even up to this point, the Giants hold the clear edge for two reasons:

1. They literally hold the edge! They are up two games to one. It's pretty simple.

2. There are health concerns for the Cardinals. St. Louis is probably without Yadier Molina for the rest of the series, and Adam Wainwright didn't seem healthy in Game 1.

For Game 4 Wednesday night in San Francisco, there are a number of keys to keep an eye on for each team to come out victorious. St. Louis wants this game to tie the series up as the rotations flip back to the beginning. San Fran wants this game to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with Bumgarner set to throw at least once more before the NLCS is over.

Let's start with three keys for the Cardinals and then move on to the Giants.

STL: Get Length out of the Starter

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Shelby Miller will start on the bump for St. Louis in Game 4.

He pitched once in the NLDS, lasting 5.2 innings. He looked OK but not great, which is becoming a trend for the Cards.

In Game 1, Wainwright allowed just two earned runs but was yanked before he completed even five innings and didn't look like himself. The bullpen was forced to cover 4.1 innings, and it did so rather admirably.

In Game 2, each team's bullpen got feasted on, but neither starter did them any favors. Lance Lynn lasted 5.2 innings, one of the better showings by anyone not named Bumgarner. But, again, the bullpen threw another 3.1.

In Game 3, John Lackey got off just 79 pitches and allowed four earned but completed six full. Because of extra innings, the bullpen covered another 3-plus innings before the walk-off error.

This is not a trend specific to St. Louis. NL managers are quicker to yank pitchers because they have the offensive side to consider as well. It is hard to give a starter two, or especially three, at-bats regardless of how well he is throwing.

Mike Matheny and the Cardinals need some length out of Miller in Game 4 though. If he is tossing well enough to be left in for that second at-bat, that means things are going swimmingly for this team and a victory may not be far off.

STL: Avoid Using Trevor Rosenthal

USA TODAY Sports

Shelby Miller going deep into his outing will lead right into this next key for St. Louis: The Cardinals need to avoid using Trevor Rosenthal.

Rosenthal is not a bad pitcher. He is just another one of those heart-attack closers who so many teams rely on. There's not even anything "wrong" with him as analysts are saying. He falls victim to the sin that most shaky closers do: the walk.

Rosenthal walked 42 batters in 70.1 innings during the regular season. His strikeout ability reduced the harm, but he did blow six saves. So his two walks in 0.2 innings in Game 2 didn't exactly come out of nowhere.

Of course, if this team has a slim lead in the ninth of Game 4, Matheny is going to call on Rosenthal. He admitted as much to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch.

But that doesn't mean it would be the smart thing to do. Playing the matchup game in the ninth inning of an NLCS game is never ideal. However, relying on Rosenthal to pitch cleanly through an inning seems even less so. 

STL: Get Some Middle-of-the-Order Production

USA TODAY Sports

Matt Holliday, the team's No. 3 hitter, has gotten on base six times in 28 at-bats this postseason for an OBP of .207. In the LCS, he is 1-for-13.

Matt Adams, the team's cleanup hitter, has just four hits in 23 at-bats this postseason for a batting average of .174. Fortunately, he has also drawn four walks, although in the LCS, he is 1-for-11.

Yadier Molina, a normal middle-order hitter, is currently out with an oblique strain. Although he remains on the playoff roster, there is no sign he will be able to swing a bat before the series is out.

Jhonny Peralta, the fourth- or fifth-spot batter this series, is hitting .217 with five hits and one RBI during the playoffs.

With little to no production being generated from the entire middle of the order, the Cardinals offense has fallen on the shoulders of Matt Carpenter, Jon Jay and late-inning heroics. That is not a sustainable business model, especially considering Jay's 1.077 postseason OPS is just a tad out of whack from his .755 career mark.

SF: Have Ryan Vogelsong Continue Being Magical

USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Vogelsong takes the mound for San Francisco in Game 4.

Earlier in the postseason, against Washington in the NLDS, Vogelsong threw 5.2 innings, allowed one run and four total baserunners. That one-game ERA of 1.59 actually brought his career postseason mark up to 1.19.

That's right. Ryan Vogelsong has a career postseason ERA of 1.19. In 2012, he started four games, went 3-0 and allowed three total runs.

Compare his postseason ERA and WHIP (1.19, 0.99) to his career regular-season figures of 4.42 and 1.40, respectively. In fact, 2011 was the only individual year where he finished with an ERA even below 3.37 or a WHIP below 1.28, and he still ended with an ERA in the high twos.

I have no explanation for this. There is no explanation for this. Some guys just like a big stage. Whatever it is, the Giants need Vogelsong to keep it going. Hopefully the carriage doesn't turn back into a pumpkin before Game 4 wraps.

SF: Get Hunter Pence Going

USA TODAY Sports

Beside Buster Posey, Hunter Pence is the Giants' best hitter.

While Posey is just 2-for-13 in the NLCS, he was hitting the ball extremely well the previous round of the playoffs. Pence, on the other hand, has been struggling all postseason. With his 1-for-4 in Game 3, Pence is now batting .242 with just a .639 OPS.

The Giants don't have the offensive firepower to continually win games without their second-best bat producing.

Fortunately for San Fran, Pablo Sandoval is the poor man's Ryan Vogelsong of hitters, but Pence is a catalyst for this team in both outcomes and actions. 

SF: Don't Fix What Ain't Broke

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

It's 2014, an even year, so obviously San Francisco is going to win another World Series title. Even though it was preordained, it is still remarkable the things these Giants are able to pull off in the biggest games.

They have a formula:

Step One: Madison Bumgarner.

Step Two: Win with some postseason magic.

Step Three: Vogelsong, playoff edition.

Step Four: Repeat step one.

Step Five: Repeat step two.

Step Six: Repeat step three? We will see.