Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills: Complete Week 7 Preview for Minnesota
The Minnesota Vikings offense is taking a lot of well-deserved heat this week after playing back-to-back awful games in losing to two division rivals in the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
Things won't get much easier for the Vikings on Sunday as they go on the road to take on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills defense is ranked No. 1 in the NFL against the run, giving up just 67.5 yards per game, and ranks second overall in sacks with 19, just one behind the Lions.
The Vikings offense is definitely in need of a jump-start. In its four losses, Minnesota has averaged a paltry 7.25 points and rushed for just 73.25 yards per game.
Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater played brilliantly in his first start against the Atlanta Falcons three weeks ago but fell back to earth last Sunday against the Lions, throwing three interceptions and getting sacked eight times in a 17-3 shellacking.
It was hard to evaluate Bridgewater's performance as his offensive line had a disastrous game in front of him and his receivers seem to be having trouble getting open whenever he does have time to throw.
ESPN Stats and Information reports, via Ben Goessling of ESPN.com, that Bridgewater was pressured on 17 of 47 dropbacks and was sacked four times in less than 2.5 seconds against the Lions.
It's been a surreal month-and-a-half for the Vikings, who lost their best player, Adrian Peterson, to the exempt list and three other offensive starters in quarterback Matt Cassel, tight end Kyle Rudolph and right guard Brandon Fusco to injuries.
Injuries are a part of life in the NFL though, and Minnesota has to bounce back quickly in order to stay afloat in the NFC North. The Vikings' next three opponents have a combined record of 5-13, so if Minnesota has any playoff aspirations in 2014, it will have to get on a roll starting this week.
The Bills stand at 3-3 after losing 37-22 to the New England Patriots last Sunday. Veteran Kyle Orton has taken over at quarterback the last two games after second-year man EJ Manuel struggled out of the gate. Orton has thrown for more than 600 yards in his two starts and has the Buffalo offense on the upswing.
It could be said that nobody learned much about the Vikings in their unraveling against the Packers two weeks ago, when they had to turn to third-string quarterback Christian Ponder.
The loss to the Lions was far more disheartening, though, as it came at home and with Bridgewater under center.
Six games into a season might be a little too early to say that a team is at a crossroads, but Sunday's game against the Bills feels that way for Minnesota. A win would give the Vikings the shot in the arm they are desperate for, while a loss could send them spiraling south.
Vikings' Week 6 Recap
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The Vikings had their second straight awful performance in getting completely outclassed by the short-handed Detroit Lions, losing 17-3 at TCF Bank Stadium last Sunday.
The Lions offense, playing without stars Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, didn't do much, only gaining 255 yards, but that was more than enough as the defense completely overwhelmed Minnesota's listless offense.
Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was sacked eight times and had three passes intercepted as the Minnesota offense struggled to get anything going and only gained 212 yards on the day.
Bridgewater struggled in his second start, but it's hard to lay much blame at his feet as he was under siege for most of the day. In addition to the eight sacks, he was knocked down four other times and seemingly faced pressure every time he dropped back to throw.
It's become clear that with Adrian Peterson out of the lineup, defenses aren't going to respect the run when playing the Vikings.
"All 22 of Minnesota QBs being sacked this season have come in the 5 games with Peterson out. Defenses obviously now can tee off on QB.
— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) October 15, 2014"
The Lions opened the game by marching down the field in seven plays and capped off the drive when Matthew Stafford hit Theo Riddick for a nine-yard score, staking Detroit to a quick 7-0 lead.
The Vikings answered nicely, moving the ball 44 yards on the ground in six plays to the Detroit 15-yard line. Then on first down Bridgewater tried to hit Cordarrelle Patterson in the end zone but he never saw safety Glover Quin giving inside help. Quin stepped in front of the throw for an easy interception.
That was about it for Minnesota's offense, which picked up just four first downs on its next eight possessions.
The Lions front four completely dominated Minnesota's offensive line, with Ziggy Ansah, Ndamukong Suh and George Johnson splitting up six of Detroit's eight sacks.
The Vikings offense is now forced to take a long look in the mirror, as the team is getting close to zero production from the offensive line and wide receivers and about the bare minimum from the running backs.
The loss dropped the Vikings to 2-4, and 0-2 in the division, where they are now two full games behind the Lions and the Packers.
News and Notes
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Vikings' Offensive Woes are Mounting
There's really no way to sugarcoat it: The Vikings offense is awful right now.
As mentioned in the previous slide, with Adrian Peterson gone from the lineup, opposing defenses are simply pinning their ears back and attacking the quarterback.
Minnesota has given up 14 sacks and an astonishing 28 quarterback hits in its last two games. (For some perspective, the Vikings defense, which isn't playing terribly, has eight quarterback hits in the last two games.)
Pro Football Focus singled out the Vikings offensive line for its sorry performance against the Lions, with Matt Claassen writing the following:
"Offensive Line: -11.5 combined
Breakdown: There’s no question the Vikings’ offensive line has had its struggles this year. That trend continued Sunday with what was arguably their worst performance as a whole unit in the first six weeks. In pass protection, the line combined to allow seven sacks and ten hurries which were a significant factor in Bridgewater being pressure (sic) on over half his drop-backs. While having more success as run blockers, they still graded out as average in the run game.
Signature Stat: The offensive line’s Pass Blocking Efficiency was 64.9, tied for the second-lowest by a unit this season and Bridgewater was pressured on 51.1% of his drop-backs.
"
According to Mark Craig of the Star Tribune, Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said on Monday that he "wouldn't be opposed" to making changes to an offensive line that isn't playing up to expectations.
The offensive line's poor play has obviously had a mushroom effect on the wide receivers and running backs, who are putting up terrible numbers.
The Vikings' top two receivers are Greg Jennings and Jarius Wright, who currently rank 56th and 84th in the league, respectively, in receiving yards, according to ESPN.com.
Vikings fans may want to close their eyes for these next numbers: 19 teams in the league have two receivers with more receiving yards than anyone on Minnesota, while five teams have three with more. Furthermore, both the Chicago Bears and San Diego Chargers have four players with more receiving yards than anyone on the Vikings.
That's enough to make former Vikings star receivers Randy Moss and Cris Carter want to throw up.
As for the running backs? Matt Asiata tops the Vikings and ranks 33rd in the league. We'll tell you that the Cleveland Browns have three backs with more yards than him and leave it at that.
Obviously, the loss of Peterson and Rudolph is impacting those numbers, but it's clear the Vikings need far more production from their skill position players.
No Rest for the Vikings' Beleaguered Offensive Line
After getting torn to shreds by the Lions defensive line, the Vikings' struggling offensive line now has to prepare for a Bills front four that's playing excellent football.
Just like the Lions last week, Buffalo starts three first-round picks on its front four in Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes. Those three have combined with Kyle Williams for 14.5 sacks and are among the league's best against the run.
In Week 4 against the Texans, who rank fifth in the league in rushing, the Bills stuffed Arian Foster and Alfred Blue for a combined 15 yards on 17 carries.
A week later against the Lions, Dareus and Hughes combined for five sacks in leading the Bills to a 17-14 win over the Vikings' NFC North rival.
John Breitenbach of Pro Football Focus lauded Hughes' work in that game:
"Jerry Hughes, DRE: +4.2
Breakdown: While Mario Williams had a quiet game on one side, Hughes simply took over on the other. Much of Marcell Dareus’ success was down to the disruption provided by the former first-rounder by the Colts. Hughes flashed his power, in particular, bull rushing left tackle Riley Reiff on a number of occasions. Overall as a pass rusher he recorded three sacks, a hit and three hurries in 32 rushes. It was more of a mixed game for Hughes in run defense as he recorded one tackle around the line of scrimmage but also lost contain on an outside run. All told, if Hughes is in this form and Williams can play as he did in the first few weeks, this Bills’ defense will continue to be fearsome.
Signature Stat: Hughes is currently fifth amongst 4-3 defensive ends in pass rush productivity (10.6).
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This certainly doesn't look like a good matchup for Minnesota's offensive line, which has been awful the last two games.
Pro Football Focus had Bills' defensive tackle Kyle Williams ranked with a plus-12.0 ranking—third best in the NFL—heading into last week's game.
He combines with the 6'3", 330-pound Dareus to form a tackle combination that's every bit as intimidating as the Lions' Suh and Fairley.
Bills' Offensive Line is Young and Vulnerable
The Vikings won't have the only offensive line that's struggling when they play the Bills on Sunday.
Heading into last weekend's action, Pro Football Focus had the Bills' offensive front ranked dead last in the league.
Buffalo starts two rookies on its offensive line: Fifth-round pick Cyril Richardson, who was drafted eight spots after the Vikings took David Yankey, starts at left guard, and Twin Cities native Seantrel Henderson, a seventh-round pick, is starting at right tackle.
As we noted earlier, the Vikings offensive line struggled against the Lions last Sunday, receiving a minus-11.5 grade from Pro Football Focus.
That pales in comparison though to the minus-10.7 grade Richardson got by himself against the Lions two weeks ago.
Youth, injuries and poor play have hindered Buffalo's offensive line all year, as detailed by Sal Maiorana of the Democrat & Chronicle.
Brady, Brees, Ryan, Rodgers, Stafford...and Now Kyle Orton
Although the defense really hasn't been the problem in the 2-4 start—the unit ranks 14th in the league in overall defense—the Vikings will finally catch a break after a stretch where they've faced five of the top quarterbacks in the league.
While Minnesota went just 1-4 against those teams, it certainly wasn't the string of star quarterbacks who was their undoing.
Here's a look at how the Vikings defense fared against those five:
| Quarterback | C/ATT | Yards | TD | Int | QB Rat |
| Tom Brady | 14/21 | 149 | 1 | 0 | 103.1 |
| Drew Brees | 27/35 | 293 | 2 | 0 | 120.3 |
| Matt Ryan | 25/41 | 298 | 3 | 2 | 87.2 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 12/17 | 156 | 3 | 0 | 138.7 |
| Matthew Stafford | 19/33 | 185 | 1 | 0 | 83.5 |
Those numbers are certainly nothing to be embarrassed about, especially for a defense that ranked 31st in the league in 2013.
Holding all five of those quarterbacks to less than 300 yards and only allowing 10 touchdowns between them is pretty impressive.
Although the only numbers that probably matter to Mike Zimmer are one win and four losses.
The Vikings will now face 10-year veteran Kyle Orton, who took over the Bills' starting job two weeks ago for the ineffective EJ Manuel.
Orton has played well in both his starts, averaging just over 300 yards passing. For the Vikings defense, which ranks sixth in the league against the pass, allowing just 214 yards per game, it should be a nice matchup after facing five fantastic quarterbacks in a row.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Sharrif Floyd | DT | Questionable |
| Gerald Hodges | LB | Questionable |
| Chad Greenway | LB | Probable |
| Michaul Mauti | LB | Questionable |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | WR | Probable |
| Linval Joseph | DT | Probable |
| Chase Ford | TE | Probable |
| Jabari Price | CB | Probable |
| Corey Wootton | DE | Questionable |
All injury reports are courtesy of Mike Wobschall at Vikings.com.
The big injury news for the week for the Vikings is that linebacker Chad Greenway is expected to be back in the lineup after missing three weeks with broken ribs.
"#Vikings' Chad Greenway expected to play this week in Buffalo http://t.co/QjpALBpQsW
— Brian Murphy (@murphPPress) October 16, 2014"
Greenway has led Minnesota in tackles for the last six seasons and is one of the veteran leaders on the team. Gerald Hodges has played very well in his absence, but just having Greenway back on the field and a part of the action will boost everyone's spirits.
Hodges is battling a sore hamstring and didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday. He's been very good in Greenway's absence and brings needed speed to the defense.
Cordarrelle Patterson and Chase Ford are still on the injury list with hip and foot problems, but both were full participants in practice and will play on Sunday.
Defensive tackle Linval Joseph has a sore ankle and was limited in practice, but he will play against the Bills.
Perhaps most unsettling for Minnesota is that defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd didn't participate in Thursday's practice after being limited on Wednesday. Floyd is still nursing a sore elbow and tweaked his ankle against the Lions.
"Sharrif Floyd didn't practice Thursday after being limited Wednesday. Mike Zimmer said his ankle has been bothering him. #Vikings
— VikingUpdate.com (@VikingUpdate) October 16, 2014"
He will be monitored on Friday and Saturday, and even if he is able to play on Sunday, he may split reps with Tom Johnson, who played very well against Detroit.
Rookie cornerback Jabari Price was limited on Thursday with a sore hamstring, and defensive end Corey Wootton missed both Wednesday and Thursday with a sore lower back.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Linval Joseph and Sharrif Floyd vs. Cyril Richardson and Erik Pears
As we mentioned in the News and Notes slide, the Bills offensive line is struggling every bit as much as the Vikings'.
Pro Football Focus has the Bills offensive front ranked dead last in the league, and Pears is the lowest-ranked guard. Pears may only be last because Richardson has just three starts under his belt. The fifth-round pick out of Baylor scored a horrific minus-10.7 against the Lions.
All of this is to say that Buffalo is soft in the middle of its offensive line and that Linval Joseph and Sharrif Floyd, along with Tom Johnson, should be able to have big games this Sunday.
Joseph has been a huge addition (literally and figuratively) to the Vikings defensive line and leads that group in tackles with 21. Mark Craig of the Star Tribune wrote about how Joseph has had to change his mindset to play the way Mike Zimmer wants him to in a defensive scheme that is different from what he used to play for the New York Giants.
Floyd, who's been battling some nagging injuries, is off to a slow start in his second season with just 11 tackles and one sack after a very promising preseason.
With the Bills sporting one of the weakest offensive lines the Vikings will face all season, Sunday would be a good time for both Joseph and Floyd to have big games.
John Sullivan vs. Marcel Dareus
Playing center, Sullivan obviously isn't matched up with just one player all afternoon, but during the Bills game, he will have plenty of time to square off with Dareus.
With the four blockers on either side of Sullivan all needing to step up their games, the Vikings center is the most dependable player Minnesota has up front currently, and he'll have his hands full with the Bill's fourth-year man out of Alabama.
Dareus, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, is off to his best start ever and playing at a Pro Bowl level after being slightly inconsistent over his first three years.
At 6'3", 330 pounds, he's a massive presence in the middle of Buffalo's defensive line, and he has enough quickness and strength to wreak havoc against both the run and pass.
His five sacks lead the Bills, and he's on pace to easily pass his career high of 7.5 from last season. Dareus had a huge game two weeks ago against the Lions, getting three sacks and five tackles.
Slowing down the Bills' behemoth will be a huge task for Sullivan and right guard Vlad Ducasse, but it's imperative that they limit Dareus for the Vikings to have any success on offense.
Xavier Rhodes vs. Sammy Watkins
The Bills took a big gamble when they traded up to the fourth spot to take wide receiver Sammy Watkins in this year's draft.
The Bills traded the ninth overall choice and first- and fourth-round picks in next year's draft.
Is any wide receiver worth that much?
Watkins looked to be clearly the best receiver prospect in this year's draft coming out of Clemson and hasn't disappointed so far, but, like most rookie receivers, he's been inconsistent.
He had a breakout performance in Week 2 when he caught eight passes for 117 yards and a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins. He also had a big game against the Lions, catching seven passes for 87 yards.
He's been pretty quiet in Buffalo's other four games, but he does lead the Bills with 311 receiving yards on 26 catches.
The truth is the Bills passing game should be much more dependable now that Kyle Orton is starting instead of EJ Manuel. Watkins should benefit as much as anyone from the switch as he's quickly established himself as Buffalo's best wideout.
The Vikings secondary has improved as much as any positional unit on the team from last year, ranking sixth in the league in giving up just 214 yards per game.
Rhodes has been a huge part of that, helping to shut down every big receiver the Vikings have faced.
He's still looking for his first career interception, but you have to think that will come soon as he's tied with Harrison Smith for the team lead with six passes defensed.
Rhodes is a very physical corner who is good at jamming receivers off the line of scrimmage, which will be important against Watkins, who's a physical presence.
The Vikings have been getting gashed early in games, and the defense will have to come out quickly against the Bills. Don't be surprised if they try to go to Watkins early and often; Rhodes will have to be on his game to slow down the talented rookie.
Vikings X-Factor of the Week: Jerick McKinnon
"The Vikings plan to get Matt Asiata more involved in their offense on Sunday, Mike Zimmer said: http://t.co/XjHz6ueEtR
— Ben Goessling (@GoesslingESPN) October 15, 2014"
OK, so that tweet clearly flies in the face of our pick for this week's Vikings X-factor.
Pay no attention to the plan. Plans fly right out the window once the game starts and people start making plays.
McKinnon is clearly able to bring more of a spark to the Vikings offense than Asiata, who is a hard and dependable runner but just not a feature back.
McKinnon got his first start of the year last week against the Lions, and while he didn't have a great game, he was still the Vikings' best offensive threat. He's averaging a full yard-and-a-half more per carry than Asiata.
This isn't to say that Asiata won't be useful against the Bills' cement wall of a defensive front, but look for McKinnon to be the breakout back on Sunday.
As Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune writes, McKinnon has seen his role with Minnesota change rapidly with the absence of Adrian Peterson. McKinnon talked about how quickly he's had to assimilate from small college back to NFL starter:
"[It has been] a whirlwind. Everything happened so fast. I think I prepare myself to be ready for whatever happens. There has definitely been a lot thrown my way, just from a rookie standpoint, going through a whole bunch of different things. But I think it’s helped me in my progression to become a better NFL running back.
"
Sure, it would have been better for McKinnon to ease into the role, but with Peterson gone, the team needs his playmaking ability now.
McKinnon has great speed and has shown a great cutback ability and vision when he runs. After getting just five carries in the first three games, he had a breakout game against the Atlanta Falcons, rushing for 135 yards on 18 carries.
The Vikings drafted McKinnon in the third round this past May with an eye on the future. That future is here.
Prediction
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Sunday's game against the Buffalo Bills is just one of 16 on the schedule, but after the events of the last three weeks, it feels a whole lot bigger than that.
The loss to the Packers was pretty easy to shrug off, with Christian Ponder being forced back into action at Lambeau Field during a short week. While it was an ugly loss, it was pretty predictable.
The loss to the Lions? Not so much.
Bridgewater was back in the lineup, and the Vikings were at home. Everything pointed to Minnesota bouncing back.
It didn't happen. At all.
The offense was completely non-existent in a demoralizing 17-3 defeat that saw Minnesota drop to 2-4.
The Vikings haven't thrown a touchdown pass since Matt Cassel hit Matt Asiata for one on the first drive of the second game of the season. If you're scoring at home, Andrew Luck has thrown 15 touchdown passes since then.
So it's off to Buffalo for a Vikings team that should have a huge chip on its shoulder after getting blasted the past two times out. Sports talk radio hasn't been kind to the team all week, with the offensive line and the receivers getting most of the negative talk.
The Bills are a surprising 3-3 and have looked like a better team with Kyle Orton at the helm the last two weeks. Their defense has carried them all year, and much like the Vikings, they're waiting on their offense to show some type of consistency.
Like we said at the top, it's just one game this week, but the result could be bigger than that. A win would move the Vikings to 3-4 with Tampa Bay and Washington next on the schedule. All of a sudden, they could be looking at 5-4 with momentum on their side.
With a loss, Minnesota would fall to 2-5 and take on the look of a sinking ship.
The guess here is that the Vikings will show a huge sense of urgency and realize how important this week is. Bridgewater will bounce back from a poor performance, and the Vikings offense will figure out a way to put some points on the board.
Heck, they might even get a touchdown pass.
It might not be pretty, but it will be a win.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Bills 20
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