New York Jets vs. New England Patriots: Complete Week 7 Preview for New England
After nearly unprecedented levels of turmoil over the season's first month, the New England Patriots have retaken control of the AFC East. The Pats sit alone atop the division for the first time this season, and after a gritty, well-rounded victory against the Buffalo Bills last week, it appears the Patriots are moving closer to becoming the complete team many envisioned this summer.
But the challenge of a short week, already a physically onerous task, will be exacerbated by the plethora of injuries New England suffered in Week 6. The Pats will likely be down three starters in Jerod Mayo, Stevan Ridley and Dan Connolly, with the former two lost for the season. Coupled with nagging injuries for the likes of Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower, the Pats are suddenly nearing crisis mode on the health-management front.
Despite the New York Jets' struggles, New England's lack of depth at multiple positions figures to keep this game tighter than the public perception might suggest. The Jets are a broken team on the verge of a reconstructive tear-down, but Rex Ryan's bunch has always mustered the motivation to stay competitive with their most bitter rivals.
Thus, even though the Pats have re-established control of the division, there is little reason to believe that Thursday night's game will result in a walkover. For the Pats to post their longest winning streak of the season, here are the players, matchups and factors that must tilt in their favor.
Patriots Week 6 Recap
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If New England's Week 5 prime-time victory suggested a legitimate contender, their second consecutive strong 60-minute effort reaffirmed that notion. Facing a hostile environment and a rapidly improving Bills squad, the Patriots answered every challenge and counterattack Buffalo could mount, a performance made more impressive by the in-game adversity New England faced.
Unfortunately, no amount of perseverance or mental fortitude is going to revive Stevan Ridley or Jerod Mayo this season. The Pats really do not have adequate replacements for either player, which will force a committee approach that will likely produce diminished results.
New England will also likely need to start a different offensive line combination for the fifth (!) straight week after Dan Connolly's head injury. Given Connolly's extensive concussion history, one would expect the veteran lineman to miss multiple weeks. Connolly is likely reaching a breaking point with head injuries, so if the Pats cannot count on him the rest of this season, Josh Kline could see a permanent role in the lineup.
On the plus side, the Pats' newfound versatility in the passing game should bear fruit against New York's depleted secondary. On throws over 10 yards last week, Brady was 7-of-11 for 201 yards and two touchdowns, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). The perimeter game is still a change-up within the offense, but unlike in years past, Brandon LaFell and Brian Tyms have proved that they can exploit favorable matchups if defenses force the ball away from Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski.
As we'll further elaborate later, the Jets defensive line figures to control the trenches. However, the emergence of the two-tight end set and viable contributions from outside the numbers should provide the Pats an equally powerful advantage downfield and on the perimeter. As they demonstrated in a similar matchup on Sunday, even an adequate performance from the patchwork offensive line would tilt the scales toward New England.
News and Notes
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Browner Ready to Go
Free-agent signing Brandon Browner was supposed to help comprise the league's most physical cornerback duo opposite Darrelle Revis. Browner has yet to reach the field two weeks after his four-game suspension expired, but according to Patriots.com's Erik Scalavino, the veteran corner is ready for his 2014 debut:
"I’m excited to be back out there. I’m trying to get ready to play this Thursday. I’m ready to go. I’m itching, just like anybody else that’s been held out or hurt. I’m itching to get out there, but I’m taking it a day at a time. Sometimes it gets tough, but this is our job. When you love what you do, you get up looking forward to go to work.
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There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding Browner after reports last week suggested that he has struggled to pick up New England's defensive system. But Bill Belichick quickly refuted those rumors, and Browner's comments this week imply that a nagging ankle injury was the true reason for his deactivation.
Even if he is active, the Pats figure to ease him in through a rotation with Alfonzo Dennard. Dennard has had a few issues this season—according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), the third-year corner has given up targets and receptions at a more frequent rate—but his physicality and familiarity with the system makes him an adequate No. 2. Thus, expect Browner to earn his way into a starting position over the course of weeks, rather than bypassing his way up the depth chart.
Gray Over Bolden?
With Stevan Ridley down, conventional wisdom suggests that a committee of Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden and James White will pick up the slack in the backfield. However, there are reports that practice-squad back Jonas Gray could usurp those expectations:
"ESPN Boston hinting that Jonas Gray and not Brandon Bolden could possibly take on 'big back' role in Ridley's absence. Typical Beelzichick.
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) October 13, 2014"
A third-year back out of Notre Dame, Gray has yet to make it onto a game-day active roster and was not promoted from the practice squad as of Tuesday night. But given the talent drop-off after Ridley, the Pats' best course of action might simply require them to keep the Jets off-guard in their abridged preparation time.
Assuming the Patriots do not burden the fragile Vereen with a three-down workload, there is no reason Gray does not deserve the same opportunity as Bolden or White. Bolden has averaged a frightening 1.7 yards per attempt over 15 carries this season, while White has nothing but his fourth-round draft status in his favor. If the Pats decide Bolden's special teams value trumps whatever he could provide on offense, Gray may very well receive the next crack (though we'll discuss the backfield situation later).
Rain in the Forecast
The Patriots have been blessed with perfect weather over their first six games, but Thursday night's contest could bring the season's first adverse conditions. As ESPNBoston.com's Kyle Brasseur illustrates, the expected onslaught of heavy rains could wreak havoc on New England's offense:
"Conditions could especially pose a problem for a typically pass-heavy Patriots offense that will be further effected by the loss of starting running back Stevan Ridley, whose season reportedly is over as a result of an ACL and MCL tear. If the weather dictates an emphasis on keeping the ball on the ground, the Patriots will have to do so against the NFL’s eighth-ranked run defense in the Jets.
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Many will remember the aesthetically abominable 13-10 contest the Pats played against the Jets last season, which also came on a Thursday night in rainy conditions. Similar conditions could make for a 2014 redux, as it is difficult to imagine New England's depleted offensive line and running back corps making any headway against the Jets' sterling defensive line.
But the Patriots possess a much more harmonious passing game, as last year's rain served to exacerbate the unit's already pervasive issues. Even if the weather dampens some of New England's passing-game progress, expect Tom Brady and Co. to largely overcome those factors against the Jets' patchwork secondary.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Jerod Mayo | LB | Out |
| Stevan Ridley | RB | Out |
| Dan Connolly | OG/C | Questionable |
| Nate Ebner | S | Out |
| Cameron Fleming | OT/OG | Out |
| Bryan Stork | C | Questionable |
| Tom Brady | QB | Probable |
| Brandon Browner | CB | Questionable |
| Jamie Collins | LB | Questionable |
| Dominique Easley | DE/DT | Questionable |
| Dont'a Hightower | LB | Questionable |
| Chandler Jones | DE | Probable |
| Devin McCourty | S | Probable |
| Matthew Slater | ST | Questionable |
*All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Lee Schechter.
After two injury-riddled weeks, the Patriots' injury report has grown back to its customary Dostoevskian lengths. Mayo and Ridley will eventually go on season-ending injured reserve, so it is no surprise to see them already ruled out on the report.
The bigger concerns lie in the trenches. Offensively, the Pats will likely miss starters Bryan Stork and Dan Connolly, as well as a versatile reserve in Cameron Fleming. Thus, expect an interior starting trio of Josh Kline, Ryan Wendell and Jordan Devey, with Marcus Cannon as the top backup. New England usually dresses seven offensive linemen, so expect either Chris Barker or newly signed Caylin Hauptmann to receive a promotion from the practice squad.
Defensively, the Pats figure to roll out their 3-4 base personnel for most of the night to combat New York's run-heavy power personnel. Thus, Hightower, Easley and Jones could all play significant snaps if healthy and able. There are hopeful signals surrounding Hightower, who could take over organizational duties in Mayo's stead with the green dot helmet, as he did last season.
Brady may also be worth keeping an eye on, though it was hard to discern any limitations in mobility last week. Wildly contrasting reports have emerged as to the severity of his ankle injury, but the short week should heighten whatever issues exist. Playing in rainy conditions behind a depleted offensive line, enough dubious variables are in play to raise reasonable concern about Brady's welfare.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Patriots Interior Offensive Line vs. Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson
New England's embattled offensive line has run into a gauntlet of difficult matchups recently, but Thursday will bring their stiffest challenge of the season. Wilkerson and Richardson warrant consideration in any discussion of the best defensive line duos in the league, with underrated run-stuffer Damon Harrison rounding out arguably the NFL's best starting defensive line.
Among 3-4 defensive ends, Wilkerson leads the league in run-stop percentage at 14.3 percent, while Richardson ranks sixth in pass-rushing productivity. Both reside in the top-15 of both categories, giving the Jets two rare three-down linemen who provide a consistent advantage in the trenches.
Much like last week, when the running game was utilized mostly for the sake of balance, the Patriots figure to rely heavily on the passing game in critical situations. Wilkerson and Richardson often kick inside in such situations, meaning that the likes of Ryan Wendell, Bryan Stork and Josh Kline will play the largest factor in determining whether or not Brady has enough time to exploit the Jets' dilapidated secondary.
Vince Wilfork vs. Nick Mangold
Wilfork vs. Mangold is always a premier matchup when the Patriots and Jets meet, pitting two of the steadiest veterans at their respective positions. We might not witness this one-on-one as frequently on Thursday, as Wilfork is playing more defensive end in New England's hybrid 3-4 scheme. However, Wilfork often kicks inside in sub packages, so the two former All-Pros should still meet frequently.
Following an uncharacteristically inconsistent 2013 campaign, Mangold has rebounded to confirm his status as one of the game's best centers. With just two pressures allowed on 239 pass-blocking snaps, Mangold's preposterous 99.3 pass-blocking efficiency ranks second in the league, behind only Cleveland's Alex Mack. As the heart of New York's power-based interior gap-blocking scheme, Mangold is truly the fulcrum of the Jets offense.
Wilfork has been New England's comeback player of the year so far, playing 78.3 percent of the defensive snaps so far despite an ostensibly career-threatening Achilles injury last season. Per usual, Wilfork has been his typical line-clogging self, ranking fourth in run-stop percentage among 3-4 defensive ends.
Given New York's wretched passing game, Mangold and the rest of the Jets line must win decisively to establish the running game and create a low-possession, clock-controlling contest. After playing 64 of 69 snaps against Buffalo, the Pats might need Wilfork to bear a similarly heavy workload against the Jets' frequently used two-back and two-tight end packages, a colossal challenge with just three days between games.
Offensive X-Factor: James White
When Ridley exited against Buffalo, Brandon Bolden became the emergency early-down back. But Bolden is a generally uninspiring plodder who holds far greater value on special teams, meaning that the Patriots might look to an alternative to replace Ridley.
Shane Vereen does not have the skill set or durability to withstand a three-down role, so James White could represent the next man up on the depth chart. White has been inactive in all but one game this year, in which he compiled 36 junk-time yards during New England's Week 4 blowout loss.
White's skill set lies closer to Vereen than Ridley on the running back spectrum, but Bill Belichick did tout him this summer as a player who could "compete on all three downs," per ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss. White will likely receive an extended opportunity to validate Belichick's optimism, a situation that holds long-term implications when considering Ridley and Vereen's impending free-agent statuses.
Defensive X-Factor: Patrick Chung
Chung has emerged as one of the Patriots' most pleasant surprises this season, providing steady value as an in-the-box safety during his second Foxborough stint. With Mayo out for the season, Chung may now figure prominently as a three-down hybrid safety-linebacker.
The veteran safety represents New England's best option in both run support from the secondary and covering tight ends. Consequently, Chung is both the box safety in the Pats' single-high coverage schemes and the third safety in their "big nickel" sub packages. In limited coverage duties this season, Chung has allowed completions on eight of 11 targets, but just three have gone for more than 10 yards.
With the Jets' frequent two-tight end usage, Chung figures to draw Jeff Cumberland and Jace Amaro in coverage throughout the Thursday night contest. In addition, he will provide important edge support when the Jets run with Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. Chung has thus far aided a battered front seven, and with Mayo's injury, Week 7 provides the first opportunity for him to earn a three-down role as a shockingly valuable all-around safety.
Prediction
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After a tumultuous opening month, the 2014 Patriots have proved that they possess the same consistent mental makeup as past New England squads. With that in mind, it would be shocking to see them drop a home contest to a reeling and clearly inferior opponent, even on a short week.
For all Rex Ryan's brilliance as a schemer, a lack of talent and depth has handcuffed the Jets embattled coach. With a total dearth of talent on the perimeter, both offensively and defensively, New York simply does not possess the explosive playmaking ability to generate game-changing plays. At their best, the Jets can grind out close contests, much like they did last week against the Denver Broncos.
The Patriots are unlikely to gift the Jets with the turnovers and special teams gaffes Gang Green will need to generate the upset. New England has responded to every challenge and momentum swing over the past two weeks, illustrating a focus that has turned their season around.
Earlier this season, it would have been fair to question the Patriots' ability to grind out a consistent effort on a short week. But the Pats have separated themselves from the dregs of the league, and the rest of the season is simply about closing the gap on the elite Super Bowl contenders.
Prediction: Patriots 32, Jets 16
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