Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Complete Week 7 Preview for Houston

The Houston Texans have reached their fork in the road moment for the 2014 season.

After an impressive and somewhat surprising 3-1 start, the team has lost two close games in a row and will go on the road Monday night to face an opponent in a similar situation. The Pittsburgh Steelers aren't bad, but the Texans should beat them if they really are a possible playoff team.

The Steelers aren't good either—most would consider them average, much like the Texans.

If the Texans defeat the Steelers, they would regain some of their lost momentum and have a chance to go into their bye with a winning record after games against Tennessee and Philadelphia.

An equally likely scenario would be for them to lose to Pittsburgh, fall on the road to the division rival Titans, lose to a better team in the Eagles and limp into their bye week on a five-game losing streak with a record of 3-6.

The wheels on the rickety bandwagon could start coming off quickly depending on which path the team decides to embark on. If this was a game of Oregon Trail, Texans fans could get hit with a case of dysentery soon.

To continue the Oregon Trail theme, I hope the Texans decide to caulk their wagon and float it across instead of trying to ford the raging Ohio and Allegheny rivers.

Must-win games don't exist during the first half of the NFL season, but confidence could start to dissipate with another loss in prime time.

Houston Texans Week 6 Recap

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

At least two Texans were ready for prime time against the Indianapolis Colts.

The two stars that the fans expected to step up did so in a big way, but unfortunately many of their teammates did not during the Texans' five-point loss to Indianapolis.

Arian Foster continued his great comeback season with his fourth 100-yard performance. He is currently averaging 102.6 rushing yards per game, which is more than he's ever averaged in a single season.

Excluding Foster's game against Buffalo where he didn't look ready to play, his per-carry average comes out to 5.1, which would also be higher than any mark he's had during his career.

Foster's long-term health and durability are always concerning, but he was great against the Colts and is arguably off to the best six-game start of his career. What he has done is even more amazing when you consider some of the poor run blocking he's received, especially from left guard Ben Jones. 

"

Bust by Jones here. No gain for Foster. https://t.co/hXc7wXCgQf #Texans

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 15, 2014 "

"

Foster doing it by himself once again. How he gets something out of this is unreal. https://t.co/ESROMGeKCf #Texans

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 15, 2014"

The other Texans star was obviously J.J. Watt, who had another stat-sheet stuffing performance. 

"

JJ Watt tonight: 1 fumble return for TD, 7 tackles, 4 solo, 3 TFL, 4 QB hits, 2 sacks, 3 deflections.

— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) October 10, 2014"

Watt has three touchdowns through six games as an interior defensive lineman—an interior defensive lineman! Sorry, but that needed to be repeated because what he's doing is not only great but unprecedented.

He almost increased his season touchdown total to four with a near pick-six. 

"

Watt ability to play off blocks and stay aware of situations is top notch. #Texans https://t.co/Gztmu69RbZ

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 10, 2014"

The MVP award is usually given to the best quarterback or running back from a playoff team, but if a defensive player ever deserved serious consideration it has to be Watt. Houston has played less than half a season, but his impact on the team's winning or losing is unmatched among defensive players.

Andre Johnson also had his best game of the season until he had a backbreaking series in the fourth quarter. He dropped a pass and fumbled the ball back to the Colts on a drive where the Texans could have taken the lead.

Jared Crick isn't a star, but he also had his best game of the season and maybe of his career with six tackles, one tackle for loss, a pass defense and one quarterback hit. Getting any production out of the other defensive end would be huge for this defense going forward.

Unfortunately, that was the end of the positive. The Texans' pass protection, passing production and pass defense were all poor last week against Indianapolis.

As easy as it would be to put all the blame on Ryan Fitzpatrick's shoulders, how do you expect a quarterback to perform with protection like this? 

"

XSF #Texans https://t.co/609i9sE3Bh

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 10, 2014"

Rookie Xavier Su'a-Filo had a rough game in pass protection during his first start but performed well as a run-blocker. Overall, the Texans ran the ball for 71 yards on just seven carries when running at right guard against the Colts.

For the game Fitzpatrick was sacked five times—a season high—which was disappointing considering that the Colts had just 11 total sacks through their first five games of the season. I wouldn't mind if Houston gave Ryan Mallett a try, but with pass protection like that, the slower Mallett would get destroyed.

As far as the pass coverage from the secondary was concerned, we're all aware of the destruction left in the wake of noted Texans' killer T.Y. Hilton. 

"

Secondary let T.Y. Hilton do what he wanted. 9 receptions for 223 yards. The rest of the Colts rushing and receiving = 241 yards. #Texans

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 10, 2014 "

"

T.Y. Hilton has 15 career TD’s. 7 have come against the #Texans.

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 10, 2014 "

"

T.Y. Hilton's 223 receiving yards were third most allowed in #Texans history, behind Bills' Lee Evans (265), Jaguars' Justin Blackmon (236).

— Nick Mathews (@Nick_Mathews) October 13, 2014"

If the Texans can't cover small, speedy receivers any better than that, then what's going to happen against Antonio Brown this week? More on that in a later slide.

One thing that should be easier to fix—should be—is their tackling, which was awful against Indianapolis. In particular, safety D.J. Swearinger rarely used his hands and arms to wrap up and instead launched his shoulder into every opponent like he was using the "hit stick" on Madden 15. 

"

……. https://t.co/Gfl87DqEUt #Texans

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 15, 2014 "

"

Swearinger has to get better at this. Can’t miss tackles like this. https://t.co/eZV49weEnk #Texans

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 15, 2014"

Maybe Swearinger's arm or elbow is still hurting him because I don't remember him ever tackling this poorly, but if that's all he's capable of, then maybe the coaching staff needs to put someone else in until he heals up.

Speaking of the coaches, they again rallied the troops well—which I don't think the previous regime did very often—but I had several problems with the play-calling and clock management from Bill O'Brien as I discussed in my game grades article after the contest.

Another player who is missing tackles and doesn't look the same after an injury is Brian Cushing; this play made me sad as a fan:

"

…….. https://t.co/sFKL530AQR #Texans

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 15, 2014"

He has lost several steps and much of his explosion. The Texans have to get more out of their inside linebackers going forward.

Thanks and credit to @PatDStat for the great work with the Vine breakdowns. Make sure to follow him and his great work.

News and Notes

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Fingers Crossed for the Return of Jadeveon Clowney 

"

"If he were to play against Pittsburgh, it certainly wouldn't be for 70 plays," O'Brien says on Clowney. Still calls it 50/50. #Texans

— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) October 16, 2014"

I don't like that Bill O'Brien felt the need to use "if" in regard to Jadeveon Clowney's status for the game against Pittsburgh, but he might just be managing expectations.

While I don't want the team to rush him back before he's ready, I have been looking forward to his return. If there is any doubt in his mind or in the minds of the trainers and doctors, Houston might as well continue to sit him over risking further injury, since making a playoff push isn't likely.

Although his presence is needed, the team shouldn't push him before he is ready to go. Adding another supremely gifted pass-rusher to the group up front would be a huge help with Brooks Reed and Whitney Mercilus not contributing much in that department.

Adding Clowney as another threat that opposing offenses would have to game-plan for should also help out J.J. Watt by decreasing the number of double- and triple-teams he faces on a regular basis.

Watt has four sacks so far this season; no other teammate has even two.

Ryan Fitzpatrick Will Remain the Starter at Quarterback

Coach O'Brien, to the surprise of few, confirmed recently that veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick would remain the team's starter despite his recent struggles and long track record of being an average to below-average player.

During the Texans' current 1-3 stretch, Fitzpatrick's numbers have dipped to three touchdowns and six interceptions and a 75 QB rating, compared to three touchdowns and zero interceptions with a 118.4 QB rating over the first two games.

My argument for Ryan Mallett over Fitzpatrick, though, is not based on short-term success but on the bigger picture.

Whether or not you believe that Fitzpatrick is the best option right now, we can all agree that he's not the future at the position. We can also all agree that this team isn't likely to make the playoffs, so the goals and focus of the season should be different than they are for the Broncos or Seahawks.

Since this season is more of a transition year, the Texans' goal should be to identify the strengths, weaknesses and core players of this team so that they can aggressively move forward and work to improve the roster in the offseason.

They can't do that to the best of their ability if they never play Mallett—who is a free agent after the season—and don't figure out what he's capable of going forward.

Mallett may end up being terrible and costing them one or two games that Fitzpatrick could have won, but finding out what he can do is more important than winning seven games instead of just five. Either way, they're not making the playoffs, and the extra losses would earn them a better draft pick anyway.

It's not like Texans fans would be looking back favorably on a seven-win season compared to a five-win season 10 years from now; play Mallett now so the team can make a plan for the future later.

With four extra days heading into the Pittsburgh game this week, it seemed like the perfect time to give Mallett a shot. Guess Coach O'Brien didn't agree.

Injury Report

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Jadeveon Clowney	Knee	Questionable
Brandon Brooks	Illness	Probable
Arian Foster	Groin	Probable
Andre Johnson	Ankle	Probable
Darryl Morris	Ankle	Questionable
J.J. Watt	Thigh	Probable
Johnathan Joseph	Knee	Probable
Mike Mohamed	Calf	Probable
Jeff Tarpinian	Knee	Probable
Brian Cushing	Knee	Questionable
DeAndre Hopkins	Hand	Probable
Tim Jamison	Groin	Probable

Injury report as of Thursday's practice from the Houston Texans' website.

Players listed as "did not participate" were considered to be questionable; others were probable. 

X-Factor and Matchups of the Week

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Slowing Down Antonio Brown

Last week I asked the question of who would cover T.Y. Hilton, and the answer turned out to be no one. Hilton caught nine passes for 223 yards and one touchdown, as he destroyed the Texans defense nearly by himself.

On passes not to Hilton, Luck's stat line was 16-of-35 for 147 yards. Hilton's running wide open was the difference between a great day for Luck and a below-average one; the Texans can't let that same thing happen again this week.

Unfortunately for the Texans, they'll be facing an even better receiver in Antonio Brown of Pittsburgh. Like Hilton, Brown isn't a huge guy, but he's quick. He's also a little more well-rounded and definitely more consistent week to week than Hilton.

Neither Johnathan Joseph nor Kareem Jackson is capable of covering Brown one on one, so the defense will have to put two men on him with a safety over the top or a linebacker underneath in a zone. Of course, Hilton beat double coverage several times last week, so doing so to Brown might not be enough.

Loading Up to Stop Le'Veon Bell

Here's the damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't scenario for the Texans this week: Do the load up to stop Bell in the run game and leave the corners in one-on-one coverage on Brown, or do they drop back extra defenders to stop Brown and take their chances with just five or six in the box against the run?

The personnel groupings they use should also be watched on Monday night. Whenever the Texans go into their dime or sub-package, they usually shift D.J. Swearinger down to outside linebacker. That might help their ability to stop the pass, but it would also leave them vulnerable against the run.

Bell is averaging 90 rushing yards per game on more than five yards per carry, so he's a dangerous weapon who could burn the Texans if they're not ready.

X-Factor of the Week: D.J. Swearinger

The second-year safety has a big role in both the Texans' run and pass defense, so his performance level will be crucial this week, as it is in most weeks.

In pass defense, Swearinger will likely be called on to help cover Steelers tight end Heath Miller, who is third on the team in targets and receiving yards while averaging more than 10 yards per catch.

As an undersized linebacker in the run game, Swearinger's tackling will have to improve, as I discussed earlier. He had several chances to make plays for negative yardage last week but didn't wrap up with his arms, which allowed the ball-carrier to gain yards after contact.

That can't happen again this week against a more talented lead running back.

Prediction

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Before Sunday afternoon, I was pretty convinced that the Steelers would win this week, but then the blowout loss to the Cleveland Browns happened. Pittsburgh should still be favored—it is, according to Odds Shark—but doubt has crept into my head.

It still comes down to this: Convince me that the Texans can stop Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell for four quarters, and I'll pick them to win. I haven't found a reason to believe that yet despite what the Browns did, so my pick is Pittsburgh.

The Steelers offense isn't likely to explode for more than 30 points like the Colts did last week, but Brown against any Texans corner is an awful mismatch, much like what happened with T.Y. Hilton.

For the season Brown is averaging 104 receiving yards per game and is ranked inside the top five in the league for receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.

Bell hasn't received the attention that DeMarco Murray has, but he's been one of the best runners in the league. He ranks second in the league in rushing yards, is averaging more than five yards per carry and, after Murray (who ran for 136 against Houston), is the most talented back the Texans have seen.

Despite all those matchup issues, the Texans do have a chance because the performance from the current Steelers defense hasn't matched the hype, reputation or success level that the unit had achieved in previous seasons. It is simply not the same playmaking group that it used to be.

It should be a close game, but the offensive weapons are about equal on both sides and the defenses are close, so I'll take the team with the better quarterback playing at home.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Texans 20

Follow me on Twitter for more Texans opinion and analysis: @sackedbybmac