Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Minnesota Vikings will try to rebound from a divisional loss last week when they host another NFC North team Sunday as the Detroit Lions come to town. The Vikings are coming off a 42-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers last Thursday as nine-point underdogs, but they have gone 4-1 against the spread in their past five meetings with the Lions.

Point spread: Lions opened as three-point favorites; the total was not yet available (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 24.8-18.4 Lions

Why the Lions can cover the spread

There’s no doubt that Detroit is the better team and has been over the past few years, but Minnesota has still found a way to win three of the last four meetings. The Lions just need to do a better job of simplifying the offense so quarterback Matthew Stafford does not have too much pressure on him to win games.

That may have to be the case if they decide to rest All-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Stafford needs to do a better job of playing within himself, and it also helps to have a kicker who can make field goals at key points of the game. Detroit cut kicker Alex Henery after he missed three field goals in a 17-14 home loss to the Buffalo Bills last week, and the team will have a replacement for him before visiting the Vikings.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

Minnesota has shown flashes of its potential in two wins this season while falling apart in the three losses. So which Vikings team will show up on Sunday, the one that ripped the Atlanta Falcons 41-28 at home two weeks ago or the one that was dominated defensively the previous two weeks in losses to the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots?

Scoring points is obviously the key for the Vikings, who have averaged less than nine in the losses and nearly 38 per game in the wins. A lot of that will depend on who’s under center for Minnesota, rookie Teddy Bridgewater or veteran Christian Ponder, who continued his career struggles at Green Bay last week.

Smart Pick

Pay close attention to the injury report regarding players in this game. Bridgewater is considered probable to return from an ankle injury for the Vikings, and he provided them with a huge spark in the win over the Falcons. If he plays, Minnesota’s offense will get a huge upgrade over Ponder.

Meanwhile, the Lions are reportedly strongly considering sitting Johnson so he can allow his ankle to heal. They are also thin at running back right now with Reggie Bush injuring his ankle against the Bills last week and Joique Bell dealing with concussion protocol after missing that game. With so many key injuries on both sides and the continued absence of Vikings running back Adrian Peterson due to legal issues, the best bet may be on the under, which is 8-4 in the last 12 meetings.

Trends

• Detroit is 0-3-2 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road against Minnesota
• The total has gone UNDER in eight of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing Detroit

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