Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still looking for their first home win of the season and can also cover their third game in a row when they host the Baltimore Ravens Sunday. The Bucs are coming off a tough 37-31 overtime loss on the road to the New Orleans Saints last week as 11-point underdogs, while the Ravens had covered three straight before suffering a 20-13 road loss to the Indianapolis Colts as 2.5-point dogs.

Point spread: The Ravens opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 43. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 21.5-11.6 Ravens

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore had covered its previous three games before losing at Indianapolis, and this team has yet to lose two in a row straight up or against the spread this season. The Ravens have played very well defensively, failing to surrender more than 23 points, and they will be visiting an offensively challenged Tampa Bay team that has totalled 31 points in its two home games this year. Granted, the Bucs have played better the last couple of games, but Baltimore has won the last two meetings by a combined 34 points, including a 27-0 rout in the last visit to Tampa Bay back in 2006.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

Since getting blown out by the Atlanta Falcons 56-14 in Week 3, the Bucs have been much more competitive and scored 13 points more in their last two games than they did in their first three combined. Part of that has to do with continuity at the quarterback position, with second-year player Mike Glennon getting accustomed to being the starter again after veteran Josh McCown got the call in the first three games before injuring his thumb against the Falcons. Tampa is 2-0 ATS with Glennon as the starter, and the team is 3-1 versus the line in the past four meetings with the Ravens.

Smart Pick

This is a tough call considering Baltimore is the better team on paper and rightfully favored on the road. But the Bucs have momentum from beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 27-24 on the road in Week 4 as seven-point underdogs and then hanging with New Orleans last week.

They return home from playing consecutive road games as a much more confident team and can pressure Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who was sacked four times for 38 yards last week at Indy after being sacked only three times in the first four games combined. Baltimore's offensive line is a mess right now with left tackle Eugene Monroe out with a knee injury, so watch for Tampa to capitalize on that weakness by holding the Ravens in check en route to earning its first home victory.

Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in five of Baltimore's last five games when playing Tampa Bay.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.