8 NBA Players Entering Critical Contract Years in 2014-15
For the class of 2015 NBA free agents, things just became infinitely more interesting.
After the league announced its new TV deal, which Richard Sandomir of The New York Times first reported will be worth $24 billion over nine years, these players have additional questions to ponder as they approach their foray into the open market.
Should they embrace short-term risk and sacrifice long-term security in hopes of landing a far more lucrative deal down the line? Or could next summer be the perfect time to ink a heavy commitment as teams loosen their financial belts in preparation for this ballooning revenue stream?
Those answers will only come with time, but the questions highlight something the eight players on this list already know: 2014-15 will be a critical point of their careers.
With all eight slotted for unrestricted free agency, there is a certainty to that statement. Since we have no crystal ball in hand, players eligible for extensions on their rookie-scale deals or those holding player options for the 2015-16 campaign were not considered here. Some may well join the free-agent frenzy, but this octet already holds a ticket for the madness.
Whether that's actually a good thing will become clear over the course of the 2014-15 season.
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
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LaMarcus Aldridge's NBA future seems to be set in stone.
While the three-time All-Star has not put pen to paper on a new deal—and will not before next summer—he has made a public commitment to the Portland Trail Blazers.
"I'm happy to stay, happy to be here, happy with the direction the team has gone the last year or two," Aldridge told The Oregonian's Joe Freeman. "This has no impact on my interest in staying in Portland. I just want to get a five-year deal. I feel like that's the best decision on my part."
From a financial standpoint, he is right. By delaying his decision, he can score a longer, more lucrative deal next offseason.
And lucrative might be putting it lightly. The 29-year-old just enjoyed a career season in which he set personal bests in points (23.2) and rebounds (11.1). His 21.8 player efficiency rating was the 15th-highest in the entire league.
He also celebrated the first playoff series win of his career, while Portland's 54 victories matched its highest win total since Aldridge arrived as part of a draft-night exchange in 2006.
All signs point to Aldridge staying with the Blazers for the long haul, but that's a dramatically different tune than what the basketball world was hearing last summer. The Oregonian's Jason Quick wrote in July 2013 that, "I believe Aldridge wants out."
Winning, of course, has a tremendous healing power, so perhaps Portland's climb up the league standings has Aldridge convinced he is where he needs to be. Would that stance change if the Blazers dropped back in the jam-packed Western Conference?
That's an impossible question for anyone other than Aldridge to answer, but it is something worth monitoring over the upcoming season.
Omer Asik, C, New Orleans Pelicans
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The New Orleans Pelicans are desperate to build something substantial around blossoming big man Anthony Davis, and that pursuit has been a costly one in terms of future assets.
Bruising center Omer Asik was the latest part of that plan. The Pelicans sent a protected 2015 first-round pick to the Houston Rockets for the defensive-minded 7-footer, who should lighten the heavy defensive and rebounding responsibilities previously placed on Davis.
On the surface, anything that makes Davis' life easier is a worthwhile investment for the Pelicans. He is their first transcendent talent since Chris Paul left the Big Easy in 2011, so the franchise should look to protect its face.
But Asik's impending free agency complicates the matter. At the very least, it puts tremendous pressure on this team to realize its playoff potential and justify the sacrifices made to piece this roster together.
"If they don't make the playoffs and fail to have a draft pick for a second straight year and Asik leaves after his contract is up in the summer of 2015? This could be the end for Dell Demps in New Orleans," wrote CBS Sports' Zach Harper.
With the eight-figure salaries of Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon likely on the books for the next two seasons (Gordon has a $15.5 million player option for 2015-16), the Pelicans are already working with a tight budget. And Davis could score a megadeal as soon as next summer, though he'll have to figure out the best way to handle the massive influx of TV money.
All of that puts Asik under the microscope, both for the Pelicans and interior-deficient teams looking to lure him away. He was a walking double-double during his lone season as a full-time starter (11.7 points and 10.1 rebounds in 2012-13), but he is limited at the offensive end.
How much teams are willing to pay for interior defense and rebounding could decide Asik's future—and that of the Pelicans.
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
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If history is any indication, Marc Gasol's critical 2014-15 campaign should come free of any drama.
The former Defensive Player of the Year has been a model of consistency. Over the past three seasons, his scoring average has never been lower than 14.1 or higher than 14.6. His assists average has shuttled between 3.1 and 4.0. And his defensive rating has hovered right around 100, never creeping above 102 or falling below 98.
You know what you're getting with Gasol, and the same probably applies to his free agency.
"You know my relationship with Memphis and my relationship with the Grizzlies," Gasol told The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery. "I've always said Memphis is my home away from home. ... I live day to day but I don't see myself anywhere else."
That's about as firm a stance as you'll find from a player slated for the free-agent market.
That said, there is a reason statements aren't made any more declarative than that. Even players who are happy with their current digs know they cannot predict the future.
What would it take to pry Gasol away from Memphis? That's hard to say, though the New York Knicks seem interested in finding out.
Marc Berman of the New York Post reported "the Knicks are expected to chase" the versatile big man next summer. Berman also noted that New York has a potentially valuable recruiter in point guard Jose Calderon, who has suited up alongside Gasol on the Spanish national team.
Other suitors are sure to emerge, which captures how this will be a big season for the talented big man. He has probably done enough to secure a max contract already, but he may use this year to identify the best place for him to sign it.
Rudy Gay, SF, Sacramento Kings
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Credit the book on Sacramento Kings forward Rudy Gay for one thing: It sure is adaptable.
As soon as one copy is completed, new details emerge to render its words futile.
During his seven-plus seasons with the Memphis Grizzlies, Gay was, at different times, a primary player, a supportive piece, a key cog and, eventually, expendable. Over his 51-game stay with the Toronto Raptors, he transformed from a potential centerpiece to costly fat that needed to be trimmed.
Then, he landed with the Sacramento Kings last December and found a way to push his NBA trajectory back in the right direction. He averaged 20.1 points in 55 games with the Kings, but the efficiency in those numbers is what made them truly stand out.
He shot 48.2 percent from the field with Sacramento, a higher percentage than All-Stars Stephen Curry (47.1), Chris Paul (46.7) and Kevin Love (45.7) connected on last season. Gay's 19.6 PER with the Kings was more than three points higher than his career average (16.4).
So, should the Kings—or anyone else, for that matter—pay him like the player they had in the latter part of last season or like the one who was discarded twice in less than 11 months?
The answer, like Gay's NBA story as a whole, is complicated.
"Yes, the Kings are a much better team with Gay than without him..." wrote Bleacher Report's Sim Risso. "But as good as Gay may be, the Kings haven't been very good with him on the court."
About the only real certainty with Gay is that he isn't worth his current $19.3 million salary. His play this season should help determine the extent by which he is overpaid, though conclusions are never easy to reach when it comes to the scoring forward.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
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Is DeAndre Jordan a product of the Los Angeles Clippers' gravity-defying system, or is he a key ingredient in the team's championship recipe?
That's a question the franchise must answer sooner rather than later with its high-flying, shot-blocking, point guard-executing big man powering his way toward free agency.
On the one hand, Jordan has predictably thrived alongside an upgraded cast of characters. Since Chris Paul joined the party, Jordan has set career-high scoring marks in each of the last three seasons. And once Doc Rivers grabbed the coaching reins last summer, Jordan thrived as a glass-eater (league-high 13.6 rebounds per game) and defensive force (personal-best 2.5 blocks).
Then again, shouldn't Jordan get some credit for seizing such an incredible opportunity?
Prior to the start of last season, Rivers laid out Defensive Player of the Year expectations for the athletic center, per Stephen Bailey of the Los Angeles Times. By season's end, Jordan had collected the third-most votes for the coveted individual award.
While his value might be inflated by the talent around him, one could also argue those players look better because of him. He finishes lobs anywhere near the basket, and his rim protection provides added insurance behind L.A.'s other defenders, whether he actually blocks a shot or deters opponents from even attempting one in his vicinity.
There is value in what he brings, but the economic aspect of it is tough to decipher. His offensive range is largely limited to the restricted area (86.3 percent of his made field goals came within three feet of the basket), and his free-throw percentage has stayed below 43.0 in four of his six NBA seasons.
Still, it seems like some team will throw major money his way next summer, but Jordan's 2014-15 performance could determine whether that team is the Clippers.
Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks
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Paul Millsap's days of being one of the NBA's best bargains are quickly coming to close.
Last season, while collecting the same $9.5 million salary he will receive in 2014-15, he was one of only two players to average at least 17 points, eight rebounds, three assists, one steal and one block. The other was Pau Gasol, a four-time All-Star who collected a cool $19.2 million for his effort.
That is probably more than Millsap will receive, but even that is hard to say with any certainty.
A first-time All-Star last season, the 29-year-old proved there is still upward mobility in his production. His points (17.9) and assists (3.1) were both personal bests, while his 19.8 PER outpaced his career average (18.9).
Even more intriguing was the perimeter prowess he showed in coach Mike Budenholzer's selfless, spread-out offensive attack. Millsap attempted nearly 100 more threes (212) than he had in his previous seven seasons (113) and converted those looks at a 35.8 percent clip.
And Millsap elevated his play despite the Hawks getting just 29 games out of All-Star center Al Horford. While Horford's absence helped the volume of Millsap's numbers, the versatile forward posted far better shooting marks with Horford (49.2 percent from the field, 45.7 percent from distance) than without him (44.5 and 31.0, respectively).
With Horford's return, Millsap's efficiency should continue trending upward—taking his future earnings along for the ride. That's probably why the Hawks are already lobbying for his return.
"We want to keep him," Budenholzer said, per Chris Vivlamore of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "He is someone who is really important to us. He fits us very well. We’ve communicated that with him on a regular basis."
Millsap seems poised to get paid next summer, so the Hawks might need to start communicating that commitment in dollars.
Greg Monroe, PF, Detroit Pistons
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No one can question the confidence of Detroit Pistons big man Greg Monroe.
However, his risky decision to accept his one-year qualifying offer lends itself to a slew of second guesses.
By donning a Pistons jersey for the fifth consecutive season, Monroe has subjected himself to another year of potential spacing nightmares on Detroit's oversized frontcourt. With Monroe and Andre Drummond struggling to effectively stray away from the basket and Josh Smith firing nothing but cringe-worthy shots from the perimeter, something has got to give in the Motor City.
That, or someone has got to go—or at least be kept separate from Detroit's other space-killers.
For now, it seems as if Smith may be the odd man out of president-coach Stan Van Gundy's starting five. No decisions have been made, but it's a big enough issue that Smith has already addressed it publicly.
"Whoever starts, it really doesn't matter to me," Smith told Pistons.com's Keith Langlois. "I know that I'm going to get a lot of playing time and a lot of minutes, probably finish a lot of games. So starting doesn't really matter."
Anything that buys Monroe some more real estate around the basket is good news for the Moose. His old-school, back-to-the-basket game is already hard enough to fit in today's uptempo game, particularly given his struggles at the defensive end (career 0.6 blocks per game, 108 defensive rating last season).
Monroe does a lot of things well (15.2 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists in 2013-14), but he needs the right setup around him. In a best-case scenario, he would share the floor with a rim-protecting big man who had the offensive range to step away from the basket.
Considering how hard those players are to find, the next contract he signs—in Detroit or elsewhere—could be with a club that has to carefully build around his unique skills. Monroe must use this season to prove he is worth such a labor-intensive investment.
Rajon Rondo, PG, Boston Celtics
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Boston Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo has always been one of the league's most polarizing players.
But the scrutiny he'll face this season could be unlike anything he has ever experienced before.
The two-time assists champ first needs to re-establish his value as a top-tier player after leaving mixed results in last season's return from the torn ACL he suffered in January 2013. While he managed to post 11.7 points, 9.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds, his field-goal percentage plummeted to a career-low 40.3.
If the career 47.5 percent shooter can rediscover his efficiency, the Celtics can have options with how to handle him.
Unfortunately, even that may not make Boston's decision any easier. The rebuilding team still has to figure out how much sense it makes to heavily invest in a 28-year-old who has clashed with teammates and coaches in the past, and whose prime may end before the Celtics' even starts.
And oh, by the way, Boston could already have Rondo's replacement on the roster in 2014 lottery pick Marcus Smart.
Like I said, this isn't easy.
Rondo has said he is intrigued by the prospect of free agency, per ESPN Boston's Chris Forsberg, and he told reporters at the team's media day he sees himself as a max-contract talent. Both of those items could lead Boston to gauging his market and perhaps shipping him out sometime before the trade deadline.
Then again, Rondo could be the key to the Celtics' rebuild. His talent might be Boston's best recruiting chip, and he has proven what he can do with a talented roster around him.
There is so much at stake for the floor general this season. Hopefully his performance will shed some light on the next step of his journey, because it's clouded in uncertainty at the moment.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via ShamSports.com.
