Oakland A's: State of the Franchise at the Start of the 2014-15 Offseason

My fellow Oakland A's fans: This week, we have seen two sweeps in the ALDS. Two World Series favorites were knocked out. One game ended in a walk-off. Another went 18 innings. Unfortunately, none of those games involved the Athletics.

Tonight, this writer speaks to you and the entire fanbase who make the green-collar effort so strong.

Here are the results of general manager Billy Beane's trade deadline efforts: A 22-33 record; qualification for entrance into the Wild Card Game; a loss in extras.

Most believed it could be a breakthrough year for Oakland.

After two years of grit and determined effort, Oakland came into the 2014 season better positioned for the division championship than any other AL West team.

The question running through everyone's mind now is, "Will Beane help or hinder the progress?" For years, this fanbase has argued whether his Moneyball tactics truly work and how to properly run this organization with little budget.

In the coming months, we'll see what progress—or lack thereof—Beane intends to make. Hopefully it's a year of positive action. That's what most fans want. But let's face it: The team and its fans have suffered a serious blow.

Perseverance—it's what this fanbase is all about. Moments that will define the immediate future of this organization are nearly upon us.

Hat tip to President Obama's January 2014 State of the Union address, of which I borrowed phrasing and changed to A's specific in an attempt at humor.

The Question on Everyone's Mind: Keep Building, Fire Sale or in Between?

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Samardzija has plenty of value if traded now.

This offseason could go one of three ways: Billy Beane could trade away anyone who has any type of value and completely restock the minor league system. Or, he could keep what he has, add upgrades and try again.

And then there's the "somewhere in between" route.

With Beane, not even a psychic could accurately predict what he'd do.

That said, if I had to guess, I'd say he'll likely take only one step backward and go somewhere in between. Said another way, he'll put together a squad he (and we all) hopes will overachieve a la 2012. It's likely that you'll see just about the same lineup, and the rotation will go from outstanding (on paper) to "still very good."

Free-Agent Watch: Adam Dunn Is Done

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Adam Dunn retires after one season with the A's and no playoff at-bats.

Adam Dunn has called it a career.

After 14 seasons and just over 2,000 career games, "Big Donkey" is ready to hang 'em up. Dunn confirmed his retirement to Pedro Gomez of ESPN (h/t Doug Padilla, ESPN) immediately after the A's were eliminated from the postseason.

As Oakland's DH, Dunn hit .212—that's 14 hits in 66 at-bats. Dunn drove in 10 runs in 25 games.

Dunn's hitting dropped significantly following the 2010 season. He was never able to hit above .219 in his final four seasons. Though his power dipped a bit as well, he still hit 41, 34 and 22 home runs, respectively, in the final three years.

The clubhouse should certainly miss Dunn's veteran wisdom and his power potential. Luckily, DH is one of the easier positions in the lineup to fill (paging John Jaso).

Free-Agent Watch: Where Will Jon Lester Land?

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Jon Lester capped his free agent season off extremely well, easily pitching the best of any A's pitcher.

The curious case of Jon Lester—where will he end up?

The soon-to-be 31-year-old pitcher will be one of the most coveted free agents of the upcoming offseason. In nine seasons, he's a three-time All-Star with a 116-67 (.634) record and a career ERA of 3.58. In 2014, his ERA held at 2.46. He's also good for at least 15 wins a season.

The New York Yankees are big spenders. The Boston Red Sox likely want him back. Theo Epstein of the Chicago Cubs may want to sign the guy he drafted in 2002.

At this point, there is little indication the A's have a chance to re-sign the ace.

He'll be heavily coveted, and as such, he'll be highly paid this offseason. Generally, Billy Beane does not spend the boatloads of money it would take to re-sign such a high-caliber pitcher.

But don't count it out completely.

Lester told The Boston Globe he won't simply sign with the team that offers the most money, according to NESN.com.

"I’m not going to the highest bidder. I’m going to the place that makes me and my family happy," Lester said.

Though, Boston has had 8.5 years more than Oakland has to convince him to set up shop in their hood.

Free-Agent Watch: Will Jed Lowrie Return?

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Lowrie set high expectations after 2013 but did not meet them in 2014.

"To sign or not to sign (Jed Lowrie)?" That is the question for the A's.

Lowrie arrived in 2013 and was supposed to be the fourth infielder. He rightfully earned the starting shortstop position and had a career year, hitting .290 with 45 doubles, 15 home runs and 75 RBI.

On a two-year deal, he looked like the perfect stopgap for prospect Addison Russell.

Well, that plan fell apart.

First the A's traded Russell. Then Lowrie finished with a pretty mediocre season, in which he hit. 249 with six home runs and 50 RBI. He went hitless in six postseason plate appearances. Defensively, he's made 29 errors at shortstop in two seasons.

A lack of range, the errors and shaky hitting would make you think the A's would look elsewhere. But Russell is no longer waiting in the wings.

The A's need someone.

Do they remain cheap and sign Lowrie to a short deal for not much money thanks to an average season? Or do they turn elsewhere?

That's too hard to predict.

But because it's my job to predict, I'll say that I have a sneaky suspicion the A's re-sign Lowrie on a one-year deal.

More Free Agents

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Soto shakes Gregerson's (pictured right) hand after a win.

Jason Hammel is a free agent. He likely will not be back. He came over in a trade and got booted to the back of the rotation, then skipped over several times, then pushed to the bullpen. Giving up the game-winning hit to the Royals in Game 163, er, the Wild Card Game, is Hammel with the A's in a nutshell.

Luke Gregerson is a wild card.

He's talented, so he should command quite a bit of money in free agency. I'd think the A's will make a play for him, but if they get outbid, they'll readily let him walk without a better offer.

Jonny Gomes left once for green pastures. He'll do it again.

Alberto Callaspo is a free agent, but he may stay. He adds decent enough depth and didn't do much to secure a quality offseason offer from multiple teams. The A's could easily re-add him on the cheap.

Geovany Soto's re-signing depends on the health of Derek Norris, Stephen Vogt and John Jaso. If all three return, there won't be much need for Soto. If Norris' back, Vogt's foot or Jaso's concussions are long-term, keeping Soto around would be beneficial. He did well toward the end of the season.

Soto also may have done enough to turn the heads of organizations in need of a veteran catcher or platoon guy.

Tradeable Assets

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Beane may entertain offers for Donaldson, but it sure would be foolish to pull the trigger.

Everyone is a tradeable asset. But some more than others. And it depends what route the organization takes. Let's talk about key guys.

Jeff Samardzija has to be a top candidate for trading.

Plenty of teams need starting pitching, and as I will discuss in the upcoming slide "The State of the Rotation," the A's can get by without him thanks to key returns from two starters. Oakland should be able to fetch a decent haul for Samardzija. But don't get your hopes up for an Addison Russell- and Billy McKinney-type return.

If the A's decide to keep Samardzija, they could always attempt to trade Scott Kazmir (the most expensive pitcher on the roster), A.J. Griffin or Jarrod Parker (both returning from injuries).

The biggest concern among fans sounds like a fear of trading Josh Donaldson.

It's true, his value likely won't be higher than now. He's young, locked up and playing All-Star baseball. One injury greatly reduces his trade value. And every year he ages lowers that value as well. However, I don't see the A's trading him. He's a key cog—the key cog—in the lineup right now. When the A's traded Yoenis Cespedes, they assumed guys would step up. If they trade Donaldson too, there aren't many guys left who can realistically "be the guy."

Remove "Josh Donaldson" and "lineup" above and insert "Sean Doolittle" and "bullpen." Same argument.

With three catchers, one is certainly expendable. However, there's a counter there too. 

Derek Norris is the starter. Stephen Vogt is a solid backup. John Jaso should DH or learn first base. Vogt can also play first. Between the three, you essentially cover one starting spot, two backup roles and the DH position. So why trade one?

As for assets such as Coco Crisp or Josh Reddick, unless management is absolutely blown away by an offer, there's more reason to keep them than trade them.

Health Concerns

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August 19, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics designated hitter John Jaso (5) bats during the third inning against the New York Mets at O.co Coliseum. The Athletics defeated the Mets 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

In the "State of the Rotation" slide, I will go into more depth on Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin's health. But they're returning, nonetheless.

Craig Gentry should return fully healthy from a late-season concussion.

Speaking of concussions, one major injury concern is that of catcher John Jaso's. He suffered his second season-ending concussion in consecutive years. He's 31 now, has a family and concussions are serious business. He has not indicated this, but there's a chance he could flat out retire.

Keep your eye on that one.

Elsewhere, Derek Norris' back should get plenty of rest in the offseason. John Hickey of the Contra Costa Times just announced that Brandon Moss and Stephen Vogt will also have surgery this offseason.

The State of the Lineup

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There's much debate about how impacting Cespedes' bat was in the lineup.

In it's current state, the lineup would look something like:

Coco Crisp, CF
John Jaso, DH
Josh Donaldson, 3B
Brandon Moss, 1B
Derek Norris, C
Josh Reddick, RF
Craig Gentry, LF
Nick Punto or Andy Parrino, SS
Eric Sogard, 2B

The lineup lost Yoenis Cespedes. In 2015, it's not likely that the A's will spend money to replace him. Although, it's worth stating that the A's weren't likely to be the team who signed him in the first place, and yet they did.

Regardless, they need a left fielder and a shortstop, and they could also use an upgrade at second base.

But it wouldn't be Beane's style to cover all three. You're only likely to see one of those spots get a boost. So expect something like, Sogard at second and Lowrie at shortstop, again, and a new left fielder. Or, Sogard at second, Sam Fuld in left field and a new shortstop.

Two out of three, but not all three.

I do want to point out that second baseman Nick Punto's option did vest, so he will return in 2015. This gives the A's Punto, Sogard and Andy Parrino as options.

Lastly, the A's may simply settle with Craig Gentry full time in left field and keep Fuld as the fourth guy. That wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

The State of the Bullpen

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Doolittle enters his first full season as the A's closer.

Sean Doolittle will get his first full season as the A's closer in 2015.

You will also see a full season of Eric O'Flaherty, the lefty specialist who may take on a bigger role next season.

Ryan Cook, Fernando Abad, Fernando Rodriguez and Jesse Chavez are all arbitration eligible, so there's little reason to believe they won't be in the bullpen as normally scheduled. There's a slew of other guys who are pre-arbitration eligible as well, including Josh Lindblom, Arnold Leon, Dan Otero and Evan Scribner.

With everyone listed so far, that is six solid relievers and four others on the border for a total of 10. Teams typically use seven relievers.

Luke Gregerson is a free agent, and there's a good chance he leaves for a multitude of reasons—more money, more opportunity to pitch, better chance of winning, etc.

Ultimately, not a whole lot changes.

The State of the Rotation

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Parker, the once-upon-a-time ace of this team, returns.

As it stands, the rotation looks like:

Sonny Gray
Jeff Samardzija
Scott Kazmir
Jarrod Parker
A.J. Griffin

You won't see the power-packed rotation of Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir and (insert fifth starter now). Instead, you'll see a (still very good) rotation of Gray, Kazmir, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and one of Arnold Leon, Drew Pomeranz or Jesse Chavez.

This is, of course, assuming Lester moves on and (heavy assumption) the team trades Samardzija.

Also, Parker and Griffin are on pace to return sometime around spring training 2015, but there could always be delays. If they were to be delayed, the rotation would start as Gray, Kazmir, Pomeranz, Chavez and another spot starter. Eliminate the fifth guy once Parker returns; eliminate Chavez when Griffin returns.

It's not an A+ rotation, but it's still at least a B+ five (At least!).

Hot Seat Watch: Bob Melvin and Billy Beane

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Melvin keeping the boys in line and loose simultaneously.

Again, there are no indications that manager Bob Melvin and/or general manager Billy Beane are on the hot seat.

But both should be.

Bleacher Report's Jacob Shafer believes Beane should at least be taken out of "untouchable" territory. Jake Sauberman of The InscriberMag: Digital Magazine said it's time to "stop immortalizing" the man. John Walters of Newsweek said Beane "has forgotten what the ultimate goal of this entire endeavor is: to win a World Series."

It comes down to this: Do you want your GM to annually compete? Or do you want your GM to get you a World Series ring?

If it's the latter, Beane must be on the hot seat.

As for Melvin, he's done a ton for this team. He changed the culture to "play for the day," and it works with this group. At least it did. It didn't seem to work in the second half of 2014. And I'm not one to throw blame at an individual, but the manager is at the top. And the guy at the top takes the blame when the team fails.

And 2014 was the ultimate failure.

Fire the guy? No. But put him on watch. If the "play for the day" idea doesn't work in 2015, it may be time to make a change to light a fire.