7 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers to Draft for the 2014-15 NBA Season
The NBA is a league dominated by superstars, and the fantasy basketball world is no different.
Without some stat-sheet-stuffing studs leading the way, virtual owners have no real chance at the digital crown.
But landing a couple big-name ballers is not enough. Barring injury, every team in your league should feature a few front-line producers. (If it doesn't, it's probably not a league worth playing.)
While stars anchor any championship race, sleepers are often the ones who decide it. It's pretty simple economics. Fantasy owners who do well are those who maximize value at a limited cost. Whether these players are late-round fliers or early-season waiver-wire pickups, they bring back a return substantially greater than the investment made to acquire them.
The seven players on this list have fallen through the fantasy cracks for a number of reasons. Some are young guys the basketball world hasn't quite woken up to yet. Some saw their situations dramatically improve over the offseason. Others had underrated 2013-14 campaigns, which has kept their values well behind their projected production.
All seven do have a few things in common. For one, they all have an average draft position outside of the top 90 on ESPN.com, which they should easily outperform over the course of the 2014-15 season. As such, they should all be drafted in 10-team leagues.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, Milwaukee Bucks
1 of 7
Notable 2013-14 Per-Game Numbers: 6.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, .414/.347/.683 shooting
Average Draft Position: 109.3
The Milwaukee Bucks have major plans for intriguing sophomore Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The 19-year-old (!), who stands 6'11" and hasn't stopped growing (!!), has as fascinating an NBA future as any player in the league. The Bucks have experimented with the Greek Freak as a point guard and worked on his post offense. He has the size, strength and speed to work either side of the pick-and-roll, and it's his versatility that makes it impossible to place a ceiling above him.
"His long frame and freakish athleticism make him an asset on both ends of the court...," wrote Basketball Insiders' Joel Brigham. "Antetokounmpo's unbelievable physical gifts make it hard to believe he won't be a star sooner than later."
Unless you're playing in a dynasty league, Antetokounmpo's future might not hold much importance.
His present, however, holds far more potential than fantasy owners are giving him credit for. He helps in all of the counting stats. Last season, he was one of 26 players to average at least nine points, five boards, two assists, one steal and one block.
This time around, the teenager has a full season under his belt, an innovative offensive coach in Jason Kidd, healthy bigs (Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova) and a scoring machine at his disposal in rookie Jabari Parker. Antetokounmpo's high motor should help increase his volume production, and this improved supporting cast could send his efficiency and shooting percentages soaring.
Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings
2 of 7
Notable 2013-14 Per-Game Numbers: 11.4 points, 3.7 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 1.2 steals, .467/.376/.857 shooting
Average Draft Position: 115.3
Last March, Darren Collison was backing up seven-time All-Star Chris Paul for the Los Angeles Clippers. At the time, NBA.com had Collison ranked as the 113th-best player in fantasy basketball.
This season, the 27-year-old is primed to be the starting point guard of a Sacramento Kings team that played at the 14th-fastest pace last season and wants to push the tempo even more. This offense also happens to lend itself to production at the position, as evidenced by the 20.3 points and 6.3 assists Isaiah Thomas put up before taking a four-year deal with the Phoenix Suns this summer.
All of this points to a monstrous statistical season for Collison or at least a better one than he had the last time around. Yet, the fantasy world has treated him as if he'll plateau or even decline, a stance that isn't easily figured out.
With proven scorers like DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay at his side, an already efficient Collison might find even cleaner shooting looks. Plus, a year spent under Doc Rivers' watchful eye has Collison set to take full advantage of the weapons around him.
"Doc was really hard on me as far as executing plays," Collison said, per Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee. "I knew how to score, how to get guys involved, but it wasn't just on me. Everybody on the team has to understand that the ball has to move from side to side."
To date, Collison has been a better scorer than setup man. But his scoring punch alone is stronger than fantasy owners are treating it. If he adds a consistent playmaking touch, the 27-year-old could help in a lot of different areas.
Gorgui Dieng, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
3 of 7
Notable 2013-14 Per-Game Numbers: 4.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 0.5 steals, 0.8 blocks, 49.8 field-goal percentage, 63.4 free-throw percentage
Average Draft Position: 118.4
If someone wrote a book on Minnesota Timberwolves big man Gorgui Dieng's rookie season, the first several chapters would be nothing but blank pages. Through 64 games, he made only 42 appearances and logged an average of 6.5 minutes when he played.
Once injuries forced him into the action, though, he seized every part of the opportunity. He double-doubled in his first NBA start, then repeated the feat his next two times out, highlighted by a 22-point, 21-rebound outburst on March 20. Over the final 18 games of the campaign, he averaged 12 points (on 52.8 percent shooting), 11.3 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.5 blocks.
Clearly, talent isn't an issue. If the Kevin Love-less Wolves don't try to rush their rebuild, then opportunity shouldn't be one either.
If Minnesota moves on from veteran center Nikola Pekovic at some point, playing time should come in abundance for Dieng. But even if the Montenegrin bruiser sticks around, Dieng should still be served a heavy dosage of minutes.
Wolves president-coach Flip Saunders already thought about the possibility of playing Pekovic and Dieng together, per Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune. Minnesota has also looked into limiting the minutes of the oft-injured Pekovic to help him avoid another trip to the trainer's table, per Jon Krawczynski of The Associated Press.
No matter the manner, the Wolves will find Dieng ample opportunity to make his mark. Given the offseason infusion of athleticism, the mobile center should pick up where he left off down the stretch—or use that as a launching point to bigger and better numbers.
Reggie Jackson, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
4 of 7
Notable 2013-14 Per-Game Numbers: 13.1 points, 4.1 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 1.1 steals, .440/.339/.893 shooting
Average Draft Position: 112.2
Reggie Jackson might be the most watched member of the Oklahoma City Thunder leading up to the start of the season. That's no small feat considering he shares a locker room with reigning MVP Kevin Durant and polarizing superstar Russell Westbrook.
But Jackson's transparent pursuit of a starting spot and eligibility for a contract extension have both served as critical subplots in OKC's as-of-yet unfulfilled championship chase.
Once Jackson steps between the lines, though, he'll move back out of the spotlight. Attention will shift back to Durant, Westbrook and Serge Ibaka, freeing Jackson to attack defenses not properly prepared to stop him.
As much as the scoring guard craves a place in OKC's opening lineup, it ultimately means nothing to his fantasy owners. Last season, he was a valuable weapon both as a starter (14.1 points on 42.5 percent shooting, 5.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds) and as a reserve (12.3 points on 45.6 percent shooting, 4.1 boards and 3.4 dimes).
He should be even better this time around. Former starter Thabo Sefolosha bolted for the Atlanta Hawks over the offseason, and none of Scott Brooks' other options at shooting guard—Anthony Morrow, Andre Roberson, Jeremy Lamb—can match Jackson's set of skills. Even if Jackson doesn't start, he should see the lion's share of the minutes.
He was ranked as the 82nd fantasy player by NBA.com in March and is now getting drafted well outside of the top 100. He could take a step back and still be a sleeper based on where he's getting drafted, but his considerable upside should help him being something even more valuable than that.
Terrence Jones, PF, Houston Rockets
5 of 7
Notable 2013-14 Per-Game Numbers: 12.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.1assists, 1.3 blocks, 0.7 steals, .542/.307/.605 shooting
Average Draft Position: 112.3
Reputations can be hard to shake and perceptions tough to change in the fantasy world. Especially for a guy like Houston Rockets forward Terrence Jones, who struggled finding meaningful minutes as a rookie then shared the floor with several ball-dominant players last season.
Jones' numbers don't seem to jump off the page, but you have to know where to look. His versatility is far too often overlooked, as he was one of only four players to average at least 12 points, six rebounds and one block and make at least 30 threes last season. And of those four players, Jones was easily the best shooter from the field (All-Star Paul Millsap's 46.1 field-goal percentage was second).
Over the summer—when Houston lost key contributors Chandler Parsons, Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik—Jones focused on becoming a bigger threat around the basket and feeling more comfortable away from it.
"He worked on adding strength to compete inside," wrote The Houston Chronicle's Jonathan Feigen (via Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb), "and said he worked to become more consistent with his three-point touch to give [Dwight] Howard more room to work inside."
Jones sounds like someone preparing for a larger role. Given the aforementioned offseason casualties Houston suffered, one would seem to be available to him.
With his speed, strength and quickness, he should be a matchup nightmare. Savvy fantasy owners will treat him as such—before his value starts reflecting the same upward trajectory as his game.
Robin Lopez, C, Portland Trail Blazers
6 of 7
Notable 2013-14 Per-Game Numbers: 11.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.7 blocks, 55.1 field-goal percentage, 81.8 free-throw percentage
Average Draft Position: 96.3
Most players on this list are young and still scratching the surface of their potential.
Portland Trail Blazers center Robin Lopez is neither of those things. He will turn 27 by season's end, and his player efficiency rating has floated a tick above average for most of his career.
There is nothing sexy about his game or, by extension, his stats. He is a blue-collar worker who rarely steps outside of his lane, preferring instead to help his team with energetic rebounding, solid screen-setting and steady, supportive scoring.
Lopez is reliable, a trait often perceived as boring in the fantasy sports world—especially when that reliability isn't tied to jaw-dropping numbers. Lopez's isn't, though his production is both consistent and unique for his position.
He was one of nine players to average at least 11 points, eight rebounds and 1.5 blocks last season. Of those nine, he had the fourth-highest field-goal percentage and the best free-throw success rate. He was also the only player on that list to play all 82 games, which he has done each of the past two seasons.
He's also the only one being drafted after the first 60 picks. Tim Duncan (58) and Pau Gasol (44) are the only other ones falling outside of the top 40.
In other words, Lopez keeps fine statistical company. Even if his ceiling doesn't sit as high as what some would expect from a sleeper, his floor is well above his current draft level.
Terrence Ross, SG, Toronto Raptors
7 of 7
Notable 2013-14 Per-Game Numbers: 10.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.8 steals, .423/.395/.837 shooting
Average Draft Position: 110.3
Terrence Ross had a sophomore season to remember.
His highlight finishes were among the best in the business. His 51-point eruption on January 25 was one of the more remarkable efforts of the entire 2013-14 campaign. His three-point stroke was pure, as his 39.5 percent perimeter success rate was 10th-highest of all players with at least 150 made threes.
But the Toronto Raptors swingman's third year in the league should be easily his best yet. His financial future may depend on it, as the 23-year-old will be eligible for a contract extension next offseason.
"It's really a big season for [Ross]," Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry told TSN.ca's Josh Lewenberg. "I think he's in that line of figuring out what he is and what he's going to be. I think he's prepared for that."
Ross has the opportunity to be special in both the "real" basketball world and the virtual one. On his good days, he's a two-way force with explosive offensive potential. But, to date, he's been maddeningly inconsistent. That aforementioned 51-point performance was sandwiched in between two 10-point outings.
Consistency will be his key to climbing the NBA's fantasy ranks, and he won't be searching for it alone. The Raptors could greatly improve their projections if they can hasten the developments of Ross and Jonas Valanciunas.
Ross' track record leaves some risk attached to his fantasy selection, but this season also offers a potentially colossal reward for Ross and his fantasy owners.
Unless otherwise noted statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
