Houston Texans vs. Dallas Cowboys: Complete Week 5 Preview for Houston

Just win this game.

Many Houston Texans fans will sacrifice a few other games to the loss column if the team can just beat the hated Dallas Cowboys. We're definitely past the point of it being fine if they lose every other game remaining like in 2002, but the bragging rights involved elevate this game beyond normal regular-season matchups. 

"

Brian Cushing said he realized what a big deal #Texans/Cowboys was his second year when a preseason game felt like a playoff game.

— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) October 1, 2014"

Technically each of the next two weeks against the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers are more important because of the potential playoff tiebreaker scenarios, but the emotion of either losing or winning this game for fans will far surpass anything else on the schedule.

However, based off how the Cowboys have played recently this will be the Texans' biggest test to date.

Defeating them won't be easy, but if the Texans win on Sunday, we can start talking about the playoffs being a real possibility. At 4-1 with a victory, they would only need to finish 5-6 over their final 11 games to reach nine wins, which I think will be good enough in the AFC.

With two games each against the Jaguars and Titans and a road game against the Browns coming up later in the season, the schedule looks pretty favorable for them to reach nine wins.

First things first of course—that scenario doesn't matter if they don't beat Dallas. Doing so will be tough, especially when trying to slow down DeMarco Murray and the rushing attack. The Texans haven't stopped the run well all year, so that will be a very difficult task.

Dallas isn't close to perfect as its defense has played poorly against the run and hasn't got much of a pass rush, but the Cowboys do present some of the same problems that the Giants did in the Texans' only loss this season.

After what Dallas did to New Orleans last week, a win over the Cowboys should turn the many skeptics among national media into believers of the Texans' potential. A victory is easier said than done, as I'll break down over the following slides.

Houston Texans Week 4 Recap

Bob Levey/Getty Images

Any talk of the Texans' victory over the Buffalo Bills has to start with J.J. Watt. He really should start coming out with a cape around his neck and a giant "S" on his chest, because to say his performance was super would be an understatement.

His interception for a touchdown will obviously get the most attention—he now has more touchdowns this season than Andre Johnson and Arian Foster combined—but the pressure he applied to EJ Manuel was even more disruptive.

The interception was flashy, and while Watt didn't get a sack on Sunday, he did hit the quarterback nine times. It was obvious pretty quickly how much the pressure of Watt affected Manuel's mechanics and the rhythm of the Bills offense. 

"

J.J. Watt leads the NFL in QB hits (16). That’s more QB hits than 13 NFL teams through Week 4. #Texans

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 1, 2014"

Getting that sort of consistent pressure will cause opposing quarterbacks to start looking at the rush instead of looking downfield, will throw off their footwork and mechanics as they attempt to speed up how they get rid of the ball and will force the ball to come out earlier than is designed for the play. 

"

Watt the destroyer. #Texans https://t.co/8TRnSbTee5

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

Watt is the most disruptive defensive force in the NFL.

Staying with the defensive side, Darryl Morris and Ryan Pickett—two relatively new Texans—also played very well against Buffalo.

Despite only signing with the Texans a few days before the game, Pickett looked like the answer at nose tackle. He was an unmovable object all game long, absorbing double-team blocks and not budging an inch, which allowed the Texans linebackers to make plays. 

"

MOAR PICKETT TIME! #Texans https://t.co/F77v94Tt47

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

Their run defense still needs work because Jared Crick and every other person they line up at nose after Pickett still gets pushed around, but I'm happy with what general manager Rick Smith found off the street to fill what was a massive hole.

As you saw on the first Vine from my guy Pat D Stat, Pickett doesn't budge an inch when hit with a double-team. He just absorbs it and doesn't allow any push to open up a gap or allow one of the linemen to get up to the second level on a linebacker. On the other hand, Crick gets pushed around easily. 

"

Only three yards but Pickett shaping what a 3-4 NT has to do. #Texans https://t.co/3rbulRcSdQ

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014 "

"

Case and point. Pickett not moved, Crick driven back into Mo. Look at the running room. #Texans https://t.co/OyvtRNQbrg

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

There's a big difference between Crick and Pickett, which doesn't speak well for Crick considering his age advantage and how much longer he's had to learn his responsibility in this system.

Once it was announced that A.J. Bouye would miss the game last week, I was concerned because the depth at cornerback after him appeared to be pretty thin; I was wrong.

Morris didn't just play well; he played so well that maybe there should be room for competition as to who the third corner will be once Bouye is healthy again. That's not a knock on Bouye who has also played well; Morris just looked great. 

"

Been pointing out how good Morris is planting and driving. Well here is an example. #Texans https://t.co/ZCb60eHeEX

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014 "

"

Darryl Morris man up outside with safety in the middle of the field. Pass breakup. #Texans https://t.co/AovZ50Vp4e

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

The Texans actually have some depth at corner for the first time I can remember.

One more positive note before we get to the stuff that didn't go as well against Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick is one tough player. He makes mistakes with the ball and doesn't have a strong arm, but his willingness to block and dive head-first for a first down make me respect and root for the guy. Gutsy player. 

"

Fitz sizing Dlineman up. #Texans https://t.co/DYhMGZSlDk

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

With the negative, you probably know by now that means we need to discuss the offensive line and running game.

The Texans averaged just 1.6 yards per carry on Sunday, but the number from just the running backs was actually worse as Fitzpatrick was their leading rusher. Alfred Blue and Arian Foster carried the ball a combined 17 times for a total of 15 yards, which works out to 0.88 yards per carry.

They averaged less than one yard! How's that even possible?

With Foster, it's probably just the explosion he's lacking to get through the tiny holes available after his hamstring injury. With Blue, the tape shows that he needs to be more decisive. 

"

Blue stutter steps. Has something if he doesn't in between Prosch and Newton. #Texans https://t.co/Qpkkh2tUtA

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

Most of the blame, however, should be pointed toward their blockers up front, who are missing assignments and getting almost zero push whenever they need a couple of yards in a short-yardage situation. 

"

Line of scrimmage is on the 44. #Texans get zero movement. https://t.co/0doBsq9AnC

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

Here's an inexcusable mistake from C.J. Fiedorowicz, who has given them almost nothing so far this season. He was supposed to be a polished run-blocker coming out of Iowa, but he makes too many rookie mistakes. 

"

Fiedorowicz busts by stepping in Brown and all heck break loose. -6 yards on the play. #Texans https://t.co/X5dNzutEvG

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

It's not just the blocking in the rushing game, though; they're getting whipped up front when Fitzpatrick drops back to pass as well. Surprisingly, we can't blame all of that on Derek Newton, who has actually outplayed his teammates on the offensive line. 

"

Never thought I would see this but per @PFF grading system through 4 games. Top O player: Derek Newton Worst O player: Duane Brown #Texans

— PDS (@PatDStat) September 29, 2014"

Brandon Brooks is getting beaten. 

"

This play is a mess. Two receivers in the same spot poor pass pro by Brooks. #Texans https://t.co/krSnYz9yeH

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

Pro Bowl center Chris Myers is getting beaten. 

"

#Texans like doing this pulling the center to pass pro the end. Myers vs. Mario not thought out well. #Texans https://t.co/ysAfmdJ4Kh

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014 "

"

Pass pro issues. Myers sees Spikes late. #Texans https://t.co/9pcaWEGxI3

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown is getting beaten. 

"

Hughes giving Brown fits. Causes the pressure. #Texans https://t.co/XARaKumiNK

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014 "

"

Why is it under thrown? Brown having issues with Hughes. Fitz can't set his feet. #Texans https://t.co/T6b3CkoAa0

— PDS (@PatDStat) October 1, 2014"

The three players I just mentioned are all very good players, so I guess we have to hope that they figure it out, but their play hasn't been very encouraging. Hard to blame Fitzpatrick or the skill position players for poor plays when they're getting almost zero help up front.

The Bills have a great defensive line, but that doesn't make up for the self-inflicted mistakes by the Texans. To beat the good teams—one of which they'll face this week—they can't afford to lose the battle up front. Thankfully, Dallas isn't nearly as talented up front as Buffalo, but the Texans still have to execute better.

Thanks again to @PatDStat for the All-22 Vine breakdowns. Make sure to check out his stuff.

News and Notes

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Jadeveon Clowney on Track To Be Back Soon

There's good news for Texans fans and anyone tired of watching a one-man pass rush. According to Bill O'Brien, the first overall pick should be back soon. 

"

“He’s on pace to be back here basically when the doctors said it would be, 4 to 6 weeks. Possibly closer to the 4.” - O’Brien on Clowney

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 2, 2014"

If four games is correct, that would mean Clowney would return in time for the huge game against Indianapolis. However, since it's on a short week, I bet they'll give him an extra week with what is essentially a bye week before the Monday night game against Pittsburgh the following week.

A Short Week Coming up Against Indianapolis Won't Impact Decisions Made Against the Cowboys

Coach O'Brien broke out his book of cliches and said that the team would make all decisions with winning the Cowboys game in mind this week and not give any consideration to the short week coming up. 

"

Bill O’Brien said the fact that the #Texans play the Colts next Thursday won’t change how much he uses anyone. Arian Foster included.

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 1, 2014 "

"

On #Texans potentially limiting Foster vs. #Cowboys with TNF vs. #Colts waiting: "We're just thinking about Dallas." #NFL

— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) October 1, 2014"

I get it—it's 16 one-week seasons, and they're going to take one game at a time; I understand all that. However, special consideration should be given to Arian Foster given his health status and the fact that the game against the Colts is actually much more important than beating Dallas.

Beating the Cowboys would be great, and it sure would be nice to have bragging rights around the office, but playoff tiebreakers and a lead in the division will be at stake against Indianapolis, not Dallas.

Plus with Foster's injury being a hamstring issue, those usually seem to respond better—I'm not a doctor; I'm just going off what I've seen and heard in the past—to full rest and aren't something a player can just tough his way through.

He needs to sit out and let it fully heal, or it will linger and affect him all season. At 28 years old, Foster is an older back with injury issues, and the game next Thursday is much bigger and more important. If he isn't fully ready to go, he should be held out against Dallas.

If the offensive line, tight ends and fullbacks execute and play their assignments better, the Texans can run on Dallas with Alfred Blue in the backfield instead of Foster.

Injury Report

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Jadeveon Clowney	Knee	Out
Shane Lechler	Left Hip	Questionable
Tim Jamison	Groin	Questionable
Brian Cushing	Knee	Questionable
Johnathan Joseph	Knee	Probable
Ben Jones	Knee	Questionable
Arian Foster	Hamstring	Questionable
Duane Brown	Knee	Probable
A.J. Bouye	Groin	Questionable
Darryl Morris	Ankle	Questionable
Andre Johnson	Ankle	Questionable
J.J. Watt	Thigh	Probable
D.J. Swearinger	Elbow	Probable
Chris Myers	Ankle	Probable

Injury report from Pro-Football-Reference.com and Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle.

"

#Texans' injury report. #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/5P6ck0zFVP

— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) October 2, 2014"

X-Factor and Matchups to Watch

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Cowboys Offensive Line vs. Texans Defensive Line

Not surprisingly, using three first-round picks on offensive linemen has transformed the Cowboys line from below average to very good in a short time span. The Cowboys are tied for third in team rushing yards per carry and tied for first in runs of at least 40 yards.

Unstoppable force meets very movable object this week when the Cowboys offensive line takes on a Texans defense that ranks 25th in rushing yards allowed per game and tied for 26th in rush yards allowed per attempt.

To put it simply, the Texans can't win this game if they don't at least keep the Cowboys running game in check.

If the Cowboys have success running the ball early, it will open up opportunities for play-action passes down the field and also possibly force the Texans to commit more players to stopping it, which would mean more one-on-one man coverage on the outside receivers including Dez Bryant.

I have faith in J.J. Watt and Ryan Pickett, but Jared Crick needs to have the best game of his career.

Johnathan Joseph vs. Dez Bryant

With Kareem Jackson moving to the slot whenever the Texans go into their sub-packages, Johnathan Joseph will most likely be the corner who is most often asked to cover the Cowboys' Pro Bowl receiver.

Against a receiver the quality of Bryant, it would be unreasonable to ask Joseph to shut him down, but he needs to at least hold him under his averages. So far Bryant is averaging almost 75 yards and a touchdown per game, so Joseph's goal should be to limit him to 60 yards and no touchdowns.

Bryant has received eight more targets than the second-most targeted receiver this season, so Joseph's performance will be noticeable and have a big impact on the team's success or failure on Sunday.

Texans Offensive Line vs. Cowboys Defensive Line

Just like the Texans defensive front, the Cowboys have also struggled against the run this season, which could be chicken soup for the struggling Texans' running game soul.

Dallas is tied with Houston for 26th in yards per rushing attempt allowed and 23rd in first downs allowed by rush. The Cowboys have given up the fourth-longest single rush of the season at 62 yards.

If Arian Foster was healthy and the offensive line was playing well, I'd put the over/under for Foster rushing yards at 125 and lean heavily toward taking the over. As it stands now, Alfred Blue is still capable of gashing Dallas if the blockers perform better than they did against Buffalo.

X-Factor of the Week: J.J. Watt

Too obvious?

I hear you, but stick with me.

Close your eyes and imagine what has to happen for the Texans to win a road game against arguably a better team; what you pictured was Watt making several big plays, right? That's my point.

He doesn't have to get another pick-six, but he will need to pressure Tony Romo as consistently as he did EJ Manuel. As every football fan knows, Romo is prone to committing a turnover or two, and the best way to cause turnovers is to pressure the quarterback.

Unfortunately, with Jadeveon Clowney out, Watt is the only consistent pass-rushing threat, so he has to make an impact, or the Texans will likely lose on Sunday.

If Watt gets pressure, Romo won't have time to find Bryant deep or exploit Jason Witten matched up on a linebacker. If the quarterback is rushed enough and his mechanics and decision-making get sloppy, then the Texans will likely force a few takeaways.

Along with stopping the run on defense and establishing the run on offense, a great game from Watt is essential.

It's not exactly breaking news, but it's 100 percent true.

Prediction

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

This prediction kills me because I hate the Cowboys, but I think they're going to win on Sunday.

My prediction boils down to two things: The Texans won't be able to stop DeMarco Murray, and J.J. Watt won't have the same impact this week as he did against Buffalo, going up against a great Cowboys offensive line.

That's not a knock on Watt; what he did last week was extraordinary and difficult to repeat, and the Cowboys line is much better than Buffalo's.

While Tony Romo is a similar quarterback to Eli Manning in terms of being mistake-prone, he can carve you up if given time and the coverage is soft like the Texans often play, which Manning exploited in Week 3.

Hope I'm wrong guys, but that's how I see it.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Texans 17

Follow me on Twitter for more Texans opinion and analysis: @sackedbybmac