Could DeMarco Murray Actually Make a Run at the Single-Season Rushing Record?

On Thursday, running back DeMarco Murray became the first member of the Dallas Cowboys to be named NFC Offensive Player of the Month since quarterback Tony Romo earned the honor in November of 2009, per Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News.

And deservedly so. With 534 rushing yards, the 26-year-old leads the NFL in rushing by 156 yards. Only six other backs have half of his yardage total. 

Player	Yards	YPA	TD
1. DeMarco Murray	534	5.4	5
2. Le'Veon Bell	378	5.3	1
3. Rashad Jennings	341	4.2	2
4. Knile Davis	321	4.5	3
5. Alfred Morris	316	4.5	3
6. Lamar Miller	277	5.7	2
7. Chris Ivory	274	5.5	2

He's also tied for the league lead with five touchdowns, and his 5.4 average is tops in the NFL among backs with more than 50 carries. He's already broken 28 tackles, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), while no other back has more than 17. 

And it's not as though his stats are feeding off of one huge game. Sunday against New Orleans, Murray became just the fourth running back in NFL history to record 100 rushing yards in each of the first four games of a given season. The rest of that group—Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson and Emmitt Smith—is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

As a result of the hot start, Murray enters October on pace to rush for 2,136 yards. Of course, that's a mark no back in NFL history has reached. 

Player	Yards	Season
DeMarco Murray's pace	2,136	2014
Eric Dickerson	2,105	1984
Adrian Peterson	2,097	2012
Jamal Lewis	2,066	2003
Barry Sanders	2,053	1997
Terrell Davis	2,008	1998
Chris Johnson	2,006	2009
O.J. Simpson	2,003	1973

All of that preseason talk about LeSean McCoy of the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles making a run at the 2,000-yard mark. Turns out Murray's the only one with a real shot through four weeks. 

I know, 75 percent of the season is yet to take place. A lot can happen between now and Dallas' inevitable do-or-die season finale on Dec. 28. 

Player	Season	First 4 games	End of season	Games
1. O.J. Simpson	1975	697	1817	14
2. Jim Brown	1963	664	1863	14
3. O.J. Simpson	1973	647	2003	14
4. Jamal Lewis	2003	611	2066	16
5. Stephen Davis	2003	565	1444	14
6. Emmitt Smith	1995	543	1773	16
7. Arian Foster	2010	539	1616	16
8. Billy Sims	1980	539	1303	16
9. DeMarco Murray	2014	534	?	?
10. Terrell Davis	1997	526	1715	15

As you can see, only eight backs in NFL history have started faster than Murray, and only two of those eight backs reached the 2,000-yard mark.

Amazingly, when Eric Dickerson set the current single-season record in 1984, he had only 378 yards in his first four games. That’s the 151st-best four-game start in league history, tied with Le’Veon Bell’s current total.

And when Adrian Peterson came only eight yards short of that 2,105 mark in 2012, he had only 332 rushing yards through the first four weeks. Sanders had only 327 yards during the first four games of his 2,000-yard season.

So interestingly, most of the best rushing seasons in NFL history have come as a result of strong finishes, not strong starts.

Does that mean Murray’s in trouble? Impossible to tell right now, because he easily could be a Simpson or a Lewis.

And keep in mind that Simpson and Brown lead that list based on four-game starts that took place during 14-game seasons. Prorate their final rushing totals for 16-game campaigns and they have 2,076 yards and 2,129 yards, respectively.

So four of the eight players ahead of Murray on that list ran at 2,000-yard clips from start to finish, but those also had an average of 121 more yards than Murray during those opening four-game stretches.

Point being, it's going to be extremely hard for Murray to maintain his current pace.

Can he hold up?

For starters, he'd have to stay healthy. Murray has already missed 11 games and parts of others during his three-year career due to various injuries. Thus far in year four, he's held up. But again, the season is only 25 percent complete.

According to PFF, Murray's been on the field for 217 snaps, which is the third-highest total in the NFL. Only four backs are above the 200 mark. During his first three seasons, he averaged 520 snaps a year and never had more than 690. This year, he's on pace for 868. Is that sustainable? 

The line will help

Of course, Murray has never received blocking as good as he's getting right now. Led by a trio of 23-year-old recent first-round picks, the Dallas offensive line is jacked. Left tackle Tyron Smith is a monster and right tackle Doug Free and center Travis Frederick have been run-blocking studs.

Consider that along with the fact rookie guard Zack Martin should only continue to get better, and you begin to wonder if maybe Murray can keep dodging the injury bullet for 16 games.

As will the passing game

So long as Dallas has Romo throwing to receivers like Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten, defenses will be forced to leave the box a little less occupied than they'd prefer. Against this Cowboys offense, you truly are picking your poison. 

"DeMarco is turning straight beast mode," Bryant said recently when discussing New Orleans potentially using bracket coverage against him, according to Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News. "If they want to keep doubling [me], DeMarco will just run for 150 or 200 more [yards]."

What about the schedule?

It helps that Murray has faced some so-so defenses early on. The Saints and Rams have given up a combined average of 4.7 yards per carry, and Dallas got to face a San Francisco defensive front missing two Pro Bowl-caliber linebackers in Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman. 

The Redskins have been lights-out against the run and should only get better in that area when defensive tackle Barry Cofield returns. Dallas has to face them twice. Sunday, they've got early Defensive Player of the Year front-runner J.J. Watt and the Texans, followed by a Week 6 matchup with a Seattle defense that has surrendered a league-low 2.8 yards per carry. Three weeks after that, they meet an Arizona defense that has given up only 2.9 yards per rush. 

So the challenge will become more substantial as the season wears on, starting now. 

Will Dallas continue to commit to the run?

For years, pass-happy Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett neglected Murray and the running game, even as they produced positive results on the ground. But something has changed this season, and new play-caller Scott Linehan is emphasizing the run like never before. 

Amazingly, the Cowboys are one of only three teams that have run more than they've passed thus far in 2014. Last year, they ran on only 35.1 percent of their offensive snaps, which according to TeamRankings.com, was the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL. Now, that number has suddenly jumped to 50.8 percent. 

The question, now, is whether that'll hold up when times inevitably get tough. Murray's been held to fewer than 10 carries on eight separate occasions in the last three years. If he's going to make a run at 2,000 yards or Dickerson's record, that obviously can't happen. 

This is not a mirage

Dudes can hijack the league for fluky four-game stretches. Happens all the time. But Murray is a fourth-year veteran who isn't sneaking up on anyone.

During his 2013 Pro Bowl campaign, Murray was the only back in the NFL to average at least 5.2 yards per attempt on a minimum of 200 carries. And he actually got much stronger as the season wore on. 

After averaging a solid 4.8 yards per attempt but only compiling a total of 459 yards in seven appearances through Week 9, he exploded with a huge second half that included two 130-yard performances in December.

Point being, he exited 2013 as one of the hottest backs in the game. He's only picking up where he left off. 

So can Murray make a run at history this season? Holding up with that schedule and that injury history won't be easy, but almost every other factor at play is working to his advantage. So if he's flirting with the record books come December, don't be surprised.  

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon