Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

Are we watching the end of an era with the New England Patriots? It sure seemed like it Monday night, with the Patriots getting pummelled at Kansas City. Now New England, 2-2 SU but 1-3 ATS this season, has to deal with the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 3-0 both SU and ATS. Is the torch about to be passed in the AFC?

Point spread: Patriots opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 36.2-28.2 Bengals

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals are perfect against the numbers this year, with wins and covers over Baltimore, Atlanta and Tennessee. Three weeks ago, Cincy held Matt Ryan and the Falcons to 10 points; two weeks ago, the Bengals limited the Titans to a single meaningless touchdown.

Now Cincy is coming off its bye week, with a chance to earn a win that might come in real handy come January. And Cincinnati just beat New England 15 games ago (NFL time) 13-6, holding the Pats to 248 total yards of offense and without a touchdown.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots may have struggled in recent weeks, with the lackluster victory over Oakland and the loss to the Chiefs, but c'mon, this is still Brady and Belichick, right? And they come home again, after playing three of their first four games on the road.

The Pats have won 10 in a row at Foxborough, going 7-3 ATS. Brady and the offense have been sluggish so far, but they still possess the capability of putting up 30 on any given Sunday. And while the defense didn't look too good Monday night, nobody did, and at least that unit ranks fourth in the league overall, holding its first four foes to 315 yards per game.

Smart pick

Quite simply, Cincinnati is the better of these two teams right now. And it won't matter where this game is played. The Bengals run the ball better and stop the run better, and those two factors are keys when it comes to winning games and covering spreads in the NFL. On top of that, Cincy should be fresh coming off the bye week, while New England just played Monday night, on the road. The smart money here lies with the Bengals.

Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in four of Cincinnati's last five games on the road
• The total has gone OVER in four of New England's last six games when playing Cincinnati

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.