Eagles vs. 49ers: Complete Week 4 Preview for Philadelphia
The Philadelphia Eagles will see a real test to their undefeated record this Sunday, as they travel across the country to face the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners appear to be in complete disarray under fourth-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, and their 1-2 record is as underwhelming, as is their minus-six point differential for the season.
Still, Colin Kaepernick is playing fine football, and he could spell trouble for an Eagles defense that was torched by Kirk Cousins a week ago. Philadelphia ranks 26th in the NFL in both points scored and total yards allowed, and this front seven hasn’t gotten a sack since Week 1 against Chad Henne.
To win this contest, the Eagles will need another fine performance from quarterback Nick Foles, but they’ll need the makeshift offensive line to block better for LeSean McCoy, as the All-Pro runner is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry through three games.
This really could be anyone’s game, and winning this one would cement Chip Kelly’s team as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
*All listed Scouting Combine numbers are per NFL.com.
Regular-Season Week 3 Recap
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Last week wasn’t pleasant for the Philadelphia Eagles, but the team overcame a fight, a historically awful showing from LeSean McCoy and another first-half deficit to emerge as 37-34 winners over the Washington Redskins in a key divisional matchup.
Following consecutive subpar contests, Nick Foles put together arguably his best all-around game yet. He was pressured constantly and knocked down eight times, but he didn’t take a sack and posted a 126.5 passer rating. Foles tossed three touchdowns to no interceptions, including the game-winner to Jeremy Maclin midway through the fourth quarter.
Maclin’s touchdown catch was one of just a handful of truly sensational plays that highlighted the win.
After struggling for the first three quarters, the Eagles’ defense recorded a key interception off Kirk Cousins and then a pivotal turnover on downs to secure another three-point victory. That was enough to knock off a Redskins team that threatened to take over the game when DeSean Jackson scored an 81-yard touchown late in the third quarter.
At this point, the Eagles are one of just three remaining undefeated teams, and Foles is the first quarterback in over 25 years to lead three-game winning drives in the first three games of the season.
News and Notes
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This season, the Philadelphia Eagles have made a living on the fourth-quarter comeback, while the San Francisco 49ers have done just the opposite.
"49ers only team that hasnt scored in 4th quarter. Theyve blown 2nd half leads of 14-6, 20-7 last few weeks. Perfect for Eagles
— John Clark CSN (@JClarkCSN) September 26, 2014 "
Does that trend continue this week? The 1-2 Niners are desperate for a win, and they’re hosting a Philly team that has to travel across the country following an emotional victory over division-rival Washington and former teammate DeSean Jackson.
The following news stories recap the week for the Eagles and analyze what will be key in the Eagles coming away with 11th win in their last 12 regular-season games.
Jason Peters Fined for Last Week’s Fight
Last week, Philadelphia Eagles’ All-Pro left tackle Jason Peters was ejected in the fourth quarter for punching Washington Redskins’ nose tackle Chris Baker.
"Jason Peters: "They cheap-shotted our quarterback. I didn't think, I just reacted."
— Reuben Frank (@RoobCSN) September 21, 2014
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Peters has been fined by the NFL for his actions, although he was not suspended.
"#Eagles LT Jason Peters fined $10K for striking player in the head post-play. #Redskins DT Chris Baker fined $8,268 for the facemask #FIGHT
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 26, 2014
"
Peters will suit up this Sunday, and hopefully he plays the whole game because he has a ferocious matchup in the waiting.
Cary Williams Apologizes for His Postgame Remarks
Remember last week when Cary Williams ripped Chip Kelly for the Eagles' conditioning regimen? You know, the same conditioning approach that, one could argue, gave the Philadelphia Eagles the endurance necessary to rip off three consecutive 10-plus point comebacks?
Apparently he’s very sorry.
"Cary Williams said he had a good talk with Chip, apologized to teammates and shoulda kept his concerns "in house." Not worried about future.
— Geoff Mosher (@GeoffMosherCSN) September 23, 2014
"
So that’s that.
Hopefully this is the week that defensive coordinator Billy Davis starts giving some of Williams’ snaps to rising star, Brandon Boykin.
What Will This Week’s Philadelphia Eagles’ Offensive Line Look Like?
Last season, the Philadelphia Eagles started the same offensive line for all 16 regular-season games, plus the NFC Wild Card matchup against the New Orleans Saints.
This year, that line couldn’t be more different.
Left tackle Jason Peters is the lone 2013 starter suiting up at his normal position for this game. Fresh off an ejection against the Washington Redskins, Peters will have the difficult task of blocking five-time Pro Bowler Justin Smith. Todd Herremans will move from right guard to right tackle, which means the interior three positions will be manned by Matt Tobin (making his NFL debut), David Molk and Dennis Kelly.
Pro Football Focus still rates Philadelphia as having the eighth-best run-blocking unit in the league this season, but the offensive line ranks just 28th in pass-blocking efficiency. Fortunately, San Francisco has just four sacks on the season and is still without All-Pro pass-rusher Aldon Smith.
If the Eagles can give Nick Foles time to throw, this is a very winnable game. But a repeat of last week’s performance will spell trouble.
How Can the Philadelphia Eagles Contain Colin Kaepernick without Mychal Kendricks?
Mychal Kendricks is by far the Philadelphia Eagles’ most athletic linebacker, and he was their best chance at stopping Colin Kaepernick.
Kendricks runs a 4.47 40-yard dash and he can cover tight ends, stop the run and blitz the quarterback. Had he been healthy, there’s a good chance defensive coordinator Billy Davis would have used him as a spy on Kaepernick, but that’s certainly not an option with the three-headed LB committee of Emmanuel Acho, Casey Matthews and Marcus Smith.
The trio managed to stay under the radar against Washington, combining for zero missed tackles on 70 total snaps (per Pro Football Focus). Still, this will put increased pressure on the rest of the team to get to Kaepernick. Davis needs a strong game from Fletcher Cox at the 5-technique spot, as well as both starting outside linebackers, Connor Barwin and Trent Cole.
Injury Report
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With each passing week, more and more Philadelphia Eagles players join the injury report. At this point, it’s safe to say the offensive line is decimated; Evan Mathis is on short-term injured reserve, Jason Kelce just underwent surgery for a sports hernia and should be sidelined for two months and right tackle Lane Johnson is suspended for one more game.
The status of inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks was a situation to monitor; it seemed possible Kendricks may suit up, but he’s since been ruled out for the game.
"As expected, Mychal Kendricks has been ruled out for this Sunday vs. 49ers #Eagles
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) September 26, 2014
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Here is the complete injury report, courtesy of The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jeff McLane.
| Position | Injury |
Mychal Kendricks | ILB | Calf (Out) |
Jason Kelce | C | Hernia (Out) |
Josh Huff | WR | Shoulder (Questionable) |
Earl Wolff | S | Knee (Questionable) |
Fletcher Cox | DE | Back (Probable) |
James Casey | TE | Knee (Probable) |
Jordan Matthews | WR | Oblique (Probable) |
Brandon Boykin | CB | Foot (Probable) |
Brad Smith | WR | Groin (Probable) |
Jaylen Watkins | CB | Hamstring (Probable) |
Brandon Bair | DE | Foot (Probable) |
Matt Tobin | G/OT | Ankle (Probable) |
The probable status of Matt Tobin means he should start for the Eagles at left guard, and it gives more depth to a much-maligned offensive line.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Back in the Pac-12 days, Jim Harbaugh and Chip Kelly were two of the game’s top coaches. They’re still two of the game’s top coaches, but this time they’re facing off for the first time at the NFL level.
The last time these two coached opposite one another, Kelly rallied his Oregon Ducks from a 21-3 deficit to beat Harbaugh’s Stanford team by a 52-31 score. Kelly has Harbaugh’s former tight end, Zach Ertz, while Harbaugh probably has the quarterback in Colin Kaepernick who could best run Kelly’s offense.
Aside from a battle of wits between these two, there are a handful of other key matchups worth watching.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Defense vs. QB Colin Kaepernick
The biggest criticism of Colin Kaepernick has been his willingness to take off and run far too often, while he’s simultaneously struggled as a passer.
In some ways, Kaepernick has shown an unbelievable improvement in the passing game. After completing just 58.4 percent of his passes in 2013, Kaepernick is up to 70.2 this season. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Kaepernick leads the NFL with 82.8 percent of his throws rated as accurate passes; last year, that number was just 69.3, which was 23rd.
But Kaepernick’s yards-per-attempt average has dropped from 7.7 to 7.4. His interception rate has risen from 1.9 to 3.2. And his QBR is down over 13 points.
He’s still a dual threat as a runner and passer. It looks as if the Niners have simplified the offense to more high-percentage passes, which doesn’t bode well for a Philadelphia Eagles team that is 30th in passing yards allowed and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed. The Eagles haven’t slowed down any quarterback this season, so expect Kaepernick to get the best of Philadelphia.
RB LeSean McCoy vs. ILB Patrick Willis
Three games into the 2014 season, LeSean McCoy isn’t quite living up to his potential. Remember all offseason when McCoy boasted about his skills, including the 2,000-yard promise?
He’s currently at 2.9 yards per carry, and he’s on pace for just 933 rushing yards. The offensive line doesn’t help his situation, and the San Francisco 49ers have the fifth-best total defense and sixth-best run defense in the National Football League.
Patrick Willis is a big reason why. He’s been a model of consistency since the Niners drafted him in 2007. Willis has made seven Pro Bowls in seven seasons. He’s missed just six games due to injury. This season, Willis leads his team in tackles (18). Willis has everything you could want in a linebacker—side-to-side speed, cover abilities and unbelievable instincts.
Arguably the game’s best running back against one of the best defenders? That’s a fun matchup to watch.
LT Jason Peters vs. RDE Justin Smith
Jason Peters is a six-time Pro Bowl left tackle, but he’s still at the top of his game. Similarly, Justin Smith is a five-time Pro Bowl defensive end, and he’s still playing at an extremely high level.
Smith is a 5-technique defensive end, which means he may line up more against left guard Matt Tobin than Peters. But still, he will square off against Peters enough times for an interesting film breakdown.
Peters is fresh off an ejection, and his return is vital for a makeshift Philadelphia Eagles offensive line. Peters is an exceptional athlete who rates as the 13th best offensive tackle among 67 qualifiers on Pro Football Focus’s website. Among 56 3-4 defensive ends, Smith is the fifth-best.
The two of them head-to-head should be a fun matchup. For the sake of the Eagles’ shoddy line, Peters really needs to win this one.
C David Molk vs. NT Ian Williams
Losing Jason Kelce will really hurt the Eagles. Kelce was a tremendous athlete who frequently was 25-plus yards downfield putting a block on a defender. He was a perfect fit for Kelly's offense, and the Eagles have to hope he can recover quickly from his sports hernia surgery.
Replacing Kelce will be David Molk, a 2012 seventh-round draft pick by the San Diego Chargers. Molk went in for Kelce last week and was manhandled all game by Redskins' nose tackle, Chris Baker. Even though he's only played 43 snaps, Molk already rates by PFF as the third-worst center in the game this season.
Molk will see another nose tackle, as the Niners run a 3-4 defense too. Glenn Dorsey is on IR, so Molk will be opposed by Ian Williams, a former undrafted free agent who is playing very well for San Francisco this season. Williams plays about half of the team's snaps, and he will likely be spelled by Tony Jerod-Eddie, Quinton Dial or Demarcus Dobbs.
If the 49ers do line up in a 4-3 formation, Molk will have the not-so-easy task of guarding Justin Smith or Ray McDonald. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, they can't hide Molk with a tight end to help; he's going to have to win this one on his own.
S Nate Allen vs. TE Vernon Davis
There’s no guarantee that Pro Bowl tight end Vernon Davis suits up for this Sunday’s contest against the Philadephia Eagles, but if he does, he could cause trouble against the Eagles’ defense.
"Vernon Davis (ankle) to be game-time decision http://t.co/4Ja0u3srnA
— Rotoworld Football (@Rotoworld_FB) September 26, 2014"
The Eagles won’t exclusively use safety Nate Allen to cover Davis; it’s likely that almost every player in the secondary will have a hand in the role.
Against the Washington Redskins last week, coordinator Billy Davis used his cornerbacks, safeties and linebackers in coverage against tight ends Logan Paulsen and Niles Paul. Per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Paul was targeted nine times; the Eagles that covered him were Cary Williams, Bradley Fletcher, Nolan Carroll, Allen, Malcolm Jenkins, Trent Cole, DeMeco Ryans and Casey Matthews.
That’s nearly everyone in the back seven. Considering Davis is a tight end who frequently lines up out wide, he will be covered by corners as well as the traditional safety and linebacker matchup.
Per ESPN, the Eagles rate 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends; that rates Philadelphia slightly better than average. Still, Davis is a special player, and he’s a mismatch nightmare if he’s able to play.
X-Factor: Jordan Matthews
The rookie second-round wide receiver broke out last week, catching two touchdown passes from Nick Foles in a 37-34 win. This week presents another terrific opportunity for Matthews.
Matthews will likely be matched up against San Francisco 49ers rookie first-round safety Jimmie Ward, a talented player who has struggled immensely in pass coverage thus far. Ward has actually been playing nickel cornerback this season, and that means he will see himself facing off against Matthews this week.
For the season, Ward is one of just three cornerbacks to have allowed at least three touchdown passes (per PFF); all three of these came when Ward was marched up against All-Pro receiver, Brandon Marshall. Marshall is a special talent who has given even the best corners in the game fits, but Matthews is starting to come onto his own as a player and he matches up well physically with Ward.
Matthews: 6'3", 212 pounds, 4.46 40-yard dash, 23 bench press reps
Ward: 5'11", 193 pounds, 4.47 40-yard dash, nine bench press reps
One of Kelly’s strengths as a head coach is figuring out ways to get his skill position players open against any defense, and Matthews has the definitive size advantage over Ward.
Prediction
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The Philadelphia Eagles are 3-0 and they have the NFL’s No. 2 scoring offense. The San Francisco 49ers are just 1-2, and their head coach is reportedly losing the locker room.
But there are other factors.
Philly is traveling across country following a difficult divisional matchup. LeSean McCoy’s struggles are worrisome, but the current state of the offensive line is even worse. The Eagles secondary is a subpar group, and that’s difficult considering they’re going against Michael Crabtree, Stevie Johnson, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis.
The Niners win a close one, giving Nick Foles just his second regular-season loss since he took over midseason last year.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Eagles 24
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