Predicting 3 Consequences of Boston Red Sox's Disappointing 2014 Season

The Boston Red Sox have failed on many fronts during their dreadful 2014 season.

Key players have suffered through injuries and failed to produce. Rookies and young players haven’t developed as expected. And the front office put too much stock in its rookies before the season began, leaving the team exposed in several areas.

The reconstruction of the team began in July, when the Red Sox jettisoned Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes, Jake Peavy, Felix Doubront, John Lackey, Stephen Drew and Andrew Miller in various trades, wasting no time in building toward the future.

And that future is indeed bright, with the likes of Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Christian Vazquez and Rubby De La Rosa comprising a promising core of young players now awash in MLB experience.

A next wave of younger players, featuring Garin Cecchini, Matt Barnes, Henry Owens and Blake Swihart, should factor into the picture at some point in 2015, too.

But there are still consequences to failing so spectacularly as the Red Sox have in 2014, and while the front office personnel and manager John Farrell are likely safe, many Red Sox players could be in for a wild ride this offseason.

Rather than project any external factors, like free-agent signings, let’s take a look at how several of the Red Sox’s current players could suffer the consequences of Boston’s disastrous season.

1) One of Shane Victorino, Allen Craig or Daniel Nava will be traded this offseason

The Red Sox will need to make some sort of move to alleviate their outfield logjam for 2015 this offseason.

Perhaps we’ll see the sort of blockbuster deal many fans seem to be clamoring for, a deal in which Betts is used to bring back a legitimate No. 1 starter or an elite offensive threat.

Maybe Yoenis Cespedes’ stay in Boston will be short-lived, and the Cuban will find himself changing teams as part of a deal again this winter.

But it’s more likely that one or two of Victorino, Craig or Nava gets shipped off as part of a return for a middle- or back-of-the-rotation starter, or in a move that brings back a significant bullpen piece.

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Victorino, 33, played in just 30 games this season and needed surgery for a back injury. Despite how terrific he was in 2013, it’s tough to rely on him for anything moving forward because of his health.

He’d be expensive for a fourth outfielder, but if Betts, Cespedes and Rusney Castillo all stay with the club, it’s tough to see where "Shanf" plays.

Craig, 30, has hit just .216/.283/.320 and has battled a litany of health issues of his own. Like Victorino, he’s just a year removed from putting up great numbers, but also like Victorino, it’s tough to know what to expect from Craig next season.

Mike Napoli is blocking his path at first base, and teams may still have interest in trading for Craig thanks to his contract.

Nava, 31, got off to a horrible start in 2014, and his .269/.344/.363 slash line looks unimpressive as a result. But the switch-hitter has hit .297/.358/.411 in the second half, and he is still an on-base machine against right-handed pitching.

If everyone stays healthy, Nava could be the first bat off the bench next year, and he can back up either corner outfield spot or first base.

Both Craig and Nava are under control for beyond the 2015 season, when Cespedes and Napoli see their contracts end. For that reason, the guess here is that it’s Victorino who departs this offseason, even if the return the Sox get for him is marginal.

2) Some of the “failed” young starters will be moved to the bullpen

There haven’t been very many bright spots for the Red Sox in 2014, but their bullpen has quietly been one of the better units in the league. The Sox boast a 3.29 bullpen ERA this season, which ties them with the Miami Marlins for 11th-best in baseball.

But this group stands to look quite different on Opening Day 2015 than it has for much of the season.

Miller is already gone, Koji Uehara and Burke Badenhop will become free agents after the season ends and Craig Breslow faces a $4 million team option that’s no longer a certainty to be picked up.

That leaves Junichi Tazawa, Edward Mujica and Tommy Layne as the only relievers who are basically guaranteed spots in the bullpen next season.

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Ben Cherington expressed interest in keeping Uehara on WEEI’s Dennis and Callahan earlier this month. The Sox will have the sort of financial flexibility that should allow them to be players in a free-agent reliever market that includes David Robertson, Luke Gregerson, Jim Johnson, Francisco Rodriguez, Sergio Romo and others.

Yet, given the bevy of young arms the Red Sox possess, it’s likely many of the bullpen vacancies will be filled internally.

Alex Wilson has done a decent job out of the pen in 2014, and while his ceiling is modest, he could occupy a sixth- or seventh-inning role.

Drake Britton has MLB relieving experience and has been much better in Boston this season than he was in Pawtucket. And Heath Hembree, acquired from the San Francisco Giants in the Jake Peavy deal, has the potential to pitch in the seventh or eighth inning, too.

But even with all the young talent the Sox have in the bullpen, Boston should also look to convert some of its “failed” starting pitching prospects into relievers this offseason.

Allen Webster is one likely candidate, as his control issues would be mitigated in the bullpen while his changeup would induce plenty of swings-and-misses.

De La Rosa is less likely to move, but he still hasn’t shown he can shoulder a full season’s workload as a starter. And Barnes, Edwin Escobar and Anthony Ranaudo are potential reliever conversion candidates, too.

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

But if one youngster is most likely to transition back to a role in the bullpen, it’s Brandon Workman, who has looked terrific relieving before but was a disaster in the rotation this season.

Shifting Workman and one other young pitcher to the bullpen will help build depth, and it will alleviate some of the starting pitching logjam we’re seeing in the majors and in Pawtucket.

3) Dustin Pedroia will face more scrutiny than ever before

The emergence of Betts as a rookie force has been one of the best parts of 2014 for many Red Sox fans. The future looks quite bright for the 21-year-old, who’s acclimated so well to MLB pitching after shooting through the upper minors.

But Betts’ ascension has raised plenty of questions about where he best fits next season, as he’s blocked at second base and faces a crowded outfield in front of him.

In a twist of events that was nearly unthinkable just a season ago, some have started to openly wonder if it’s Pedroia who should be making room for Betts in 2015. 

Plagued by injuries all season long, Pedroia hit just .278/.337/.376 in 135 games before being shut down in early September to undergo surgery on his left hand.

His 0.98 ISO (isolated slugging percentage) was the lowest of his career, and he continued a stark decline in power that Pedroia’s experienced since 2010.

As such, in early September, The Boston Globe’s Tony Massarotti suggested the Sox would be wise to listen to trade offers for Pedroia, citing Betts as a more affordable replacement.

Massarotti compared the Red Sox to the New England Patriots, who are infamous for jettisoning veteran players the moment they lose their value:

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If Bill Belichick were running the Red Sox, I think we all know what he would do: He would have started playing Mookie Betts at second base days ago, and he would at least explore the value of Dustin Pedroia on the trade market.

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That column seemed to start a tidal wave of responses from many prominent writers and fans alike. Over the Monster’s Matt Collins wrote about all the ways Pedroia still provides value even if his power is gone.

Massarotti’s colleague at The Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo, wrote about how Pedroia will use his recent injury as motivation.

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

And earlier this week, the Boston Herald’s Scott Lauber spoke about the current ownership group’s love for Pedroia and gave an update as to how well he’s progressing in his rehab.

The general consensus is that the notion of trading Pedroia is ill-conceived and also somewhat moot since the second baseman has a no-trade clause.

Even without power, Pedroia still puts up tough at-bats, reaches base and is one of the—if not the—best defensive second basemen in the game.

But if Betts keeps hitting and Pedroia should continue to struggle in the early days of 2015, expect to hear more and more debate over whether Pedroia’s contract extension was a mistake.