Will Red Sox's Youth Movement Start to Provide Big Impact in 2015?

The 2014 season has not gone according to plan for the Boston Red Sox.

One year removed from their championship run, the team sits at 66-87, at the bottom of the AL East rankings and with the fifth-worst record in all of baseball.

There’s no shortage of reasons why 2014 has been such a failure for the Red Sox. Key players have underperformed. Injuries have robbed them of everyday players. And the team essentially waived a white flag at the deadline, deconstructing a solid rotation to rebuild for the near future.

Yet it’s hard to argue that one major reason for Boston’s failure this season was their over-reliance on young players. The Red Sox entered the season with rookie starters at shortstop and in right field and an unproven player at third base. Much of their pitching depth was comprised of young players as well, and we’ve seen the impact that can have on a rotation in the season’s second half.

Despite the failure of many of Boston’s prospects and post-prospects, though, the future is still quite bright for this organization. Players often take more than one season to fully acclimate to the majors, and while prospect attrition is a real thing, the Red Sox have enough young players that the numbers suggest at least some should work out.

The Sox also have a nice variety of potential star players, everyday players and role players littered throughout the MLB roster and the upper minor leagues, giving them many options moving forward. In fact, the Red Sox’s latest “youth movement” could start to pay major dividends as soon as next season.  

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of Boston's young players who figure to serve as key contributors for next season, as well as some players on the periphery of relevancy and some names who are better kept in mind for 2016 and beyond.

At a certain point, this “youth movement” needs to be quantified, so we’ll only take a look at players who will be 25 or younger on opening day in 2015.

That means players such as Rusney Castillo, Rubby De La Rosa, Brock Holt, Joe Kelly, Will Middlebrooks, Alex Wilson and Brandon Workman won’t be mentioned here, though they should contribute to the 2015 team in some capacity.

Surefire Contributors

Of course, the centerpieces of Boston’s youth movement are a pair of 21-year-old major leaguers, Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts. Born just six days apart, both Bogaerts and Betts will turn 22 this October, and it’s quite impressive that both players will enter 2015 with considerable MLB experience under their belts.

The 2014 season didn’t go quite according to plan for Bogaerts, of course, as he’s hit just .239/.300/.367 in 565 plate appearances. However, Bogaerts has been dominant in stretches this season, hitting .304/.397/.438 from April 1 to May 31 and .354/.368/.600 since September 1. He was tough to watch in the middle of the season, but his natural talent is evident.

2014 hasn’t gone according to plan for Betts, either, but that’s because no one could have predicted his ridiculous ascension through the minor leagues. Betts entered the year with no experience above the High-A level. Yet he forced himself to the majors by hitting .355/.443/.551 in Portland and .335/.417/.503 in Pawtucket. In 168 PA for Boston, Betts is hitting .284/.365/.432.

Expect Bogaerts to man shortstop everyday for the Red Sox in 2015 and beyond, and expect Boston to find some way to get Betts into the everyday lineup, too. This dynamic duo could be the Red Sox’s respective No. 3 and leadoff hitters for the foreseeable future.

In addition to Bogaerts and Betts, Christian Vazquez figures to have a prominent role on the 2015 Red Sox. The 24-year-old backstop is hitting just .217/.278/.268 in 179 PA in Boston, but he’s already gaining a reputation as one of the best defensive catchers in the league. Pairing him with a backup catcher with some pop should give Boston a fairly productive catching tandem next season.

It’s difficult to project who will fill out a bullpen that’s already lost Andrew Miller and could lose Koji Uehara and Burke Badenhop after the season. But given the turnover, we could very well see Drake Britton, Heath Hembree and Edwin Escobar log significant innings. They’re not necessarily core contributors, but Boston will not lack for young bullpen options over the next few seasons.

Potential Position Players

In addition to their young core of Bogaerts, Betts and Vazquez, plus some potential relievers, the Red Sox have a large pool of young players who may or may not be called upon at the major league level in 2015, depending on Boston’s offseason moves and each player’s individual performance.

Offensively, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Garin Cecchini could factor in to Boston’s 2015 plans in a variety of ways. It’s not hard to envision a scenario in which each player sees 400-plus PA in Boston and cements himself as a part of the future. It’s just as likely that neither player gets much action above Pawtucket, given Bradley’s and Cecchini’s 2014 performances.

Bradley’s struggles this season were well documented. He’s an elite defender, as Sam Miller of Baseball Prospectus (subscription required) outlined, and most assuredly could find a spot as a fourth outfielder somewhere in the league.

But despite Bradley’s miserable performance at the plate in 2014 (.203/.271/.272 in 414 PA), there’s reason to hope he can round into form as an acceptable bottom-of-the-order hitter at some point. He hit .275/.374/.469 in 374 PA in Triple-A in 2013 and wasn’t projected to be this poor of a hitter when a prospect.

He can’t be trusted with a significant MLB role to play right out of the gate next year, of course, but it’s a bit too early to throw in the towel on his career.

Cecchini, meanwhile, blew a major opportunity to contribute to the MLB club in 2014 by underperforming at Triple-A in the middle of the season. Despite Middlebrooks’ lackluster campaign and Holt’s precipitous fall back down to earth, the Sox kept Cecchini in Pawtucket thanks to a 66-game stretch that saw him hit .220/.292/.318 from May 1 to July 31.

Like Bogaerts, Cecchini started the season off strong and has finished it on a tear, hitting .333/.413/.500 over his final 110 PA. The Red Sox could look to him as part of their third base solution next season, but he could very well find himself gaining more Triple-A seasoning instead.

Sorting Out the Rotation

If the Red Sox are seriously entertaining notions of competing in 2015, they will need to dramatically overhaul their starting rotation. According to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, the Sox are likely to be in the market for one, but not two, of the premier free-agent pitchers slated to hit the market after the season ends.

That means we could see Jon Lester, Max Scherzer or James Shields fronting Boston’s starters in 2015, but they’ll need additional depth behind a rotation that figures to also include Clay Buchholz and at least one of Joe Kelly and De La Rosa. It’s also safe to assume that Workman has pitched his way out of consideration for a starting spot.

Of Boston’s remaining pitching prospects who’ve seen time in the MLB rotation this season, Allen Webster received the most starts with nine. He’s put up a 6.02 ERA and walked nearly as many batters as he’s struck out in his 46.1 MLB innings and could very well be headed to the bullpen.

Anthony Ranaudo has notched six starts for Boston, and he hasn’t been much better than Webster. The 25-year-old has a 5.29 ERA in 32.1 innings with the Red Sox, has already given up 10 homers and has walked more batters than he’s fanned.

To round out Boston’s collection of right-handed pitching prospects, Matt Barnes has recovered from an up-and-down year in Triple-A to reach the majors as a long reliever. He’s allowed two earned runs in six innings to this point, though his three-inning shutout debut was rather impressive.

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

Finally, we have Henry Owens, who’s pitched just 38 innings above the Double-A level, but who has the highest upside of any pitcher in the Sox system, save for Buchholz and Barnes. He shouldn’t be gifted a job out of spring training, of course, but he could easily force his way into the picture by mid-2015.

The guess here is that Webster and Workman are converted to relievers in the offseason, with Ranaudo, Barnes and Owens all starting back in Triple-A. Ranaudo may be called upon as the “next man up” in the early days of the season, but one of Barnes or Owens will likely supplant him in the long run.

Look to 2016

In addition to the collection of young players who should contribute to the Red Sox in 2015, there are many more prospects who could surface in the majors at some point in 2016.

Sean Coyle and Travis Shaw don’t profile as future superstars, but each could prove to be a valuable backup player or bench bat on a contending team. Coyle needs more seasoning, and Shaw is blocked at first base for now, but if they remain in the system, they could be factors some day.

Deven Marrero could see some time in the majors in 2015 should injuries ravage the MLB team, but it’s clear that his offense needs to take another step forward. The 24-year-old hit just .210/.260/.285 in Pawtucket this season, and while his glove should carry him to a career as a utility infielder at worst, there’s still some hope for him as an everyday option.

On the mound, the Sox have Brian Johnson and Eduardo Rodriguez a step behind some of their other talented starter prospects. Johnson has a low ceiling but was devastatingly effective in Double-A this season, while Rodriguez has more upside but experienced an up-and-down 2014 campaign.

Both should see significant time in Pawtucket in 2015 with an eye toward making an impact in Boston the following year.

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And finally, catching prospect Blake Swihart has put himself on the precipice of the majors after a breakout 2014 season that saw him destroy Double-A pitching and perform adequately in a small sample in Triple-A. Catching prospects tend to develop slowly, so Swihart may not be ready until the end of 2015 or even halfway through 2016. But he’s arguably Boston’s best prospect, and he should be their long-term backstop of the future.

2014 has been a dismal year for the Red Sox, and there’s no question that their over-reliance on young players contributed to their downfall. But they still have a young, cost-controlled nucleus intact that should allow them to compete for years to come, should they allocate their substantial financial resources well.

Consider this lost season something of a growing pain for Boston, a painful but necessary reminder that prospects aren't finished products the moment they reach the big leagues. But as their young core continues to develop and grow, the Red Sox should reap the rewards of a stable core, financial flexibility and the sort of “player-development machine” that former general manager Theo Epstein once dreamed of so many seasons ago.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.