Colts vs. Jaguars: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

It's no secret that the Indianapolis Colts were going to open the season with a difficult slate. Playing on the road against the Denver Broncos to open the season is nobody's dream scenario, and facing Chip Kelly's schemes is a nightmare for 90 percent of the coaches in the league. 

Because of the opponents, opening the season in a 0-2 hole was always a distinct possibility. It's why playing Philadelphia was never going to be a "must-win" for the club, given its schedule for the rest of the season. 

But now, at 0-2 and two games back of the Houston Texans, who sits undefeated at the top of the AFC South (with a strong chance at another win Sunday against the New York Giants), the Colts have a must-win. They must win to calm the growing mob that has become dissatisfied with the coaching staff, they must win to settle the locker room that isn't used to losing consecutive games and they must win to prove that they are indeed a playoff team with legitimate hopes of contending for a Super Bowl. 

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Concern is real for this team, but panic is still held muffled, bound by the logic and expectations for the reigning AFC South champion. A loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars, especially if countered by a Texans victory, would release that panic into the wild. 

All that dramatic prose is simply my way of saying: the Colts need to win, and they need to win big. This, after all, is a Jaguars team that has wallowed in the pits of the league's worst division for years. This team lost a 41-10 drubbing to the Washington Redskins last week, a team that lost both its starting quarterback and most explosive wide receiver to injury during the game. 

The Colts should take home their first win of the season Sunday, but how? There are a number of things we could tackle here (again, stemming off the idea that the Jaguars are not good), but today I want to focus on what the Colts can do to quell some fears heading into the rest of the season. 

Offense: Get Andrew Luck and the Passing Offense on Track

The Colts want to run the ball. We get it. They aren't going to abandon that. We have enough of a sample size to see that it's a key in what the coaching staff wants to do, week in and week out. 

I fully expect the Colts to attempt to get the running game going against the Jaguars, especially with the early success they were able to find against Philadelphia. 

The Colts can likely win if they go to Jacksonville, establish a running game, allow Luck to throw on third downs and play safe defense that forces Jacksonville to make a mistake. It wouldn't be a blowout, Atlanta Falcons style, but it likely would turn in a 21-10 type of victory. It wouldn't help the team grow, and it wouldn't inspire more confidence for the rest of the season. 

Doing those things against Jacksonville simply wouldn't mean anything. They likely aren't sustainable against the good teams in this league. What is sustainable is an efficient, deadly passing offense with Andrew Luck at its helm. 

Against the Jaguars, the biggest thing I'll be looking for is if the Colts can scheme open receivers for Luck to find down the field, attacking the Jaguars vertically. Do the Colts also need to attack the Jaguars on the ground? Of course. But the most important thing for the Colts' playoff and eventual Super Bowl hopes is Luck and the passing offense. 

Against the Eagles, the Colts rarely tested downfield looks. When they did, it was often on plays like this, where the Colts had just two options for Luck to choose from: 

NFL Game Rewind

The Eagles simply rolled a safety over to Hilton and had little trouble keeping track of Coby Fleener, leaving Luck to force a short throw, scramble or throw the ball away. 

The Colts had the most success through the air when they got Hilton and Wayne involved in short and intermediate routes, especially crossers and dig routes. It allowed Luck to have bigger throwing windows while also spreading the field and giving Hilton room for yards after the catch (although he never broke one on Monday. 

As we saw in the Colts' win over Kansas City in January, this eventually opens up creases for Hilton down the field. Hilton has had some big games against Jacksonville in the last two years, but they've both come at home. If he can have his first big game in Jacksonville on Sunday, more optimism for Luck and the offense will follow. 

Note: Getting Wayne and Dwayne Allen involved in that intermediate game will be key as well. Force the safeties to start moving toward the line of scrimmage, then take your shots downfield.

Defense: Picking up the Pressure

Through two weeks, the Colts have struggled to rush the passer, something that's clear to everybody. 

The Colts' adjusted sack rate is 31st in the league, with only Atlanta trailing (and they likely pulled ahead with a three-sack performance on Thursday night), per Football Outsiders. They have pressured the quarterback on just 16 of 76 snaps so far this season, or 21 percent of the time. That number is even lower than Manning's league-leading 22.7 percent last season, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).  

Player	PR Snaps	Hurries	Hits	Sacks
Cory Redding	60	3	2	0
Josh Chapman	35	0	0	0
Arthur Jones	32	0	0	0
Ricky Jean Francois	30	1	0	0
Zach Kerr	27	1	0	0
Bjoern Werner	56	1	1	0
Erik Walden	48	0	2	1
Jonathan Newsome	13	1	0	0
Total	301	7	5	1

Because of the lack of pressure, Manning and Nick Foles were able to pick apart the Colts defense with relative ease, finding desirable matchups early and often.

Even on a day when Foles played poorly, he finished with 331 yards and nearly nine yards per attempt. Obviously that number was aided by a few Darren Sproles screens, but Foles also failed to connect with open receivers downfield on several occasions. The Colts couldn't touch Foles, despite the fact that the Eagles were down to their third-string right tackle and second-string left guard. 

Against the Jaguars, that has to change. 

Bob Kravitz of WTHR said it best: 

"

Against Jacksonville, there will be no excuses or explanations.

If you thought Philly had offensive line troubles, consider the Jaguars. After the Washington game, they waived their right tackle and their changing starting centers this week. Rookie Luke Bowanko will start at center; right…who? Sam Young, who's started four games in his entire career, will start at right tackle. As things stand now, the Jaguars, the youngest team in the league, will start six rookies on offense Sunday against the Colts.

"

The Jaguars are last in the league in sacks allowed and are last in the league in adjusted sack percentage, per Football Outsiders. Chad Henne has been pressured on 44.2 percent of his dropbacks, just 0.1 away from the league's highest percentage, per Pro Football Focus. 

So, it's the league's worst pass rush against the league's worst pass protection. The lesser-known battle between the stoppable force and movable object.

If the Colts can't get it done in this situation, against this team, they really will have to face the fact that they will be the league's worst pass-rushing unit this season. 

To keep that from happening, I'd propose that the Colts experiment with their blitz schemes, something that was semi-effective against Denver in Week 1. They were limited against Philadelphia because of the Eagles' pace, but Henne and the Jaguars don't present that problem. 

The Colts cornerbacks should be able to handle the Jaguars' bandaged wide receivers, and shouldn't be too worried about Henne carving them up. If they can use this week to figure out what works, and what doesn't, they'll be better off going into the next stages of the season.

All statistics and snap counts come from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) and Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. All training camp observations were obtained firsthand by the reporter unless otherwise noted.

Kyle is an NFL and Indianapolis Colts analyst for Bleacher Report and the editor-in-chief of Colts Authority. Follow Kyle on Twitter for more stats, analysis and general NFL analysis.