Realistic Goals for Dwight Howard's 2014-15 Season

Dwight Howard’s second season with the Houston Rockets could find him with the biggest chip on his shoulder yet.

Last year’s Howard was motivated to shake up his skeptics—make no mistake about that. His failed stint with the Los Angeles Lakers and ugly PR stretch with the Orlando Magic made many forget how good he could be, and a newly focused and healthy Howard was again one of the best centers in the game—even if few people noticed.

But during Howard’s next year in Houston, he should be more comfortable with James Harden and the rest of his teammates. He'll be eager to make fans forget a summer that saw many poke fun at his team’s unsuccessful efforts in trading and free agency. He can also improve upon a lot of the unique progress he made with his offensive game in the postseason.

Let’s have a look at some predictions.

Have His Best Scoring Season in the Post

During a losing first-round effort against the Portland Trail Blazers in the 2014 playoffs, Howard was a marvel. There were new developments in his post-scoring game, clear indicators of his time spent training with Hakeem Olajuwon. This was apparent all year, but especially against Portland.

Howard exhibited a next-level sense of his defender’s (usually Robin Lopez’s) movements. He was patient, measured and crafty, getting to the rim easily more through chess moves than the power he previously relied upon. When the Rockets needed a basket, they dumped it down to him.

That sort of movement will only improve over time, especially with Olajuwon, his era’s king of post trickery, constantly at his disposal. Howard’s action on the block will be a top Rockets offensive option in 2014-15.

Be More of a Roll Man

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One question has resounded about Howard’s style for years: Why is he so reticent to play in the pick-and-roll?

His baffling hesitation toward the play was one of the myriad issues among Howard and teammates with the Lakers—including one of the game’s all-time great pick-and-roll point guards, Steve Nash. But it followed him to Houston, too. From Bleacher Report’s Ian Levy:

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Although it isn't quite as cut-and-dry as the simple difference between Howard's 0.77 points per possession on post-ups and 1.31 points per possession as the screener in the pick-and-roll, the Rockets offense seems to get better outcomes when Howard is in motion at the offensive end. The Rockets are one of the most statistically savvy teams in the NBA and are almost certainly aware of this.

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So despite Howard’s evolution as a scorer in the paint, those plays should still only be one Rockets look. When Harden and Howard ran the pick-and-roll together in 2013-14, good things happened. Better ones will happen when they do it going forward, being more familiar with each others' tendencies. Howard just needs to get out of his comfort zone and find a new one as a roll man.

Defensive Impact Will Rise

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Last year, Howard’s defensive real plus-minus was a whopping 4.91, good for sixth in the league according to ESPN.com. But a lot of Superman’s impact came from the absurd levels of recovery defense he was playing, making up for the perimeter mistakes of Harden, Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin.

Two of those iffy Rockets defenders are now gone, with the steely Trevor Ariza from the Washington Wizards replacing Parsons on the wing. With Howard getting a better perimeter seal from his teammates, he’ll have an easier time sticking with his own man and knowing just when to rotate over to stop drivers and cutters in the paint.

In other words, his job anchoring the defense can become a more efficient endeavor, especially if frontcourt partner Terrence Jones exhibits defensive lessons learned in his second year with significant NBA minutes—a probable development.

Howard can surpass his already huge mark from 2013-14 because his team will have his back more, and he won’t be a step behind the offense as often.

Average More Rebounds

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Omer Asik is gone. Now Anthony Davis’ frontcourt partner with the New Orleans Pelicans, he won’t be around to relieve Howard for spells as he did down the stretch in the spring of 2014.

As a result, Howard’s numbers on the glass are going to go up. Asik was a beast on the boards; with him and D12 both on the glass, the Rockets collected the second-best rebounding rate in the NBA last year, according to Hollinger's stats on ESPN.com.

The team’s overall prowess at rebounding is sure to dip down without the workhorse Asik in tow, but Howard’s personal numbers are destined to go up. He can’t fill the gap left by Asik all by himself, but he’ll certainly make a dent in it, likely surpassing the 12.2 rebounds per game he averaged last year.

Re-Enter the Defensive Player of the Year Race

GREG WAHL-STEPHENS/Associated Press

Frankly, Howard should have never left this upper echelon. That he finished ninth in Defensive Player of the Year voting during 2014 after winning the award in each of his last three fully healthy seasons says more about voter fatigue than it does about Howard's defense.

As the cork at the bottom of Houston's perimeter sinkhole in 2013-14, Howard was the team's saving defensive grace. Without him, the Rockets would have been a high-scoring outfit but a fringe playoff team, as they were in 2012-13 without Howard.

Howard is still one of the best defenders in the game, if not the very best. It's only a matter of time before the NBA realizes that again and rewards him for it.