49ers vs. Cardinals: Complete Week 3 Preview for San Francisco
The San Francisco 49ers have a recent history of inconsistency at the start of each season during the Jim Harbaugh era.
In 2011, Harbaugh and the 49ers got off to a 1-1 start to the season. In 2012, San Francisco got off to a 2-0 start before dropping a Week 3 matchup on the road to the Minnesota Vikings. After winning the season opener against the Green Bay Packers in 2013, the 49ers dropped consecutive games to the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts, respectively.
But in each of those seasons, San Francisco finished with at least 11 wins and a trip deep into the postseason.
With two weeks under the 49ers' belt, the scenario resembles much of what we saw before. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 28-20 Week 2 loss in the regular-season debut of Levi's Stadium against the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football.
At one point, the 49ers were up 17-0 and held all the momentum in the game. But unfortunate penalties, poor execution and costly turnovers gave the visiting Bears all the opportunity they needed to upset San Francisco.
Now, the 1-1 49ers shift their focus to a division rival that currently sits atop the highly contested NFC West. The Arizona Cardinals play host to San Francisco on Sunday, Sept. 21 at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Arizona is 2-0 on the young season after downing both the San Diego Chargers and New York Giants. The next test will be Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers.
"#49ers QB @Kaepernick7 is 3-0 as a starter vs. Arizona. READ: http://t.co/ixpM74Rd9n pic.twitter.com/oduqEj9wuN
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) September 17, 2014"
A San Francisco team plagued by mistakes in Week 2 will face a much tougher opponent in Arizona. The Cardinals defense currently ranks as the No. 3 team in rushing yards allowed (133) and are coming off a season where they led the league in the same category.
Falling to a 1-2 record this early in the season is the last thing Harbaugh and Co. want to do, especially considering the nature of the division.
In this slideshow, we break down this crucial Week 3 matchup between these two division rivals. Let's take a look at the latest news, matchups to watch, X-factors and more.
49ers Week 2 Recap
1 of 5Where should we start with San Francisco's loss in Week 2?
Do we address the 16 penalties for 118 yards?
It's hard for any team to win ballgames with that lowly statistic.
Do we call out quarterback Colin Kaepernick for turning over the ball four times, including three costly interceptions?
"This is the first time Colin Kaepernick has ever thrown multiple interceptions against anyone other than Seattle.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) September 15, 2014"
That hurt too.
Should we criticize the 49ers offensive line for becoming too permeable as the game wore on?
Yes, they deserve their fair share of the blame as well.
In all, San Francisco choked up the momentum late in the second quarter and never got it back. At one point, the 49ers had a 17-0 lead. Late in the first half, leading 17-7, San Francisco was knocking on Chicago's doorstep. A touchdown here would have put the 49ers back in control.
But three straight runs up the gut were stuffed by the Bears' D-line, and the 49ers settled for a field goal, which gave Chicago the opportunity to get back into the game.
""Playing for three here guys" - Greg roman.
— Tre9er (@Tre9er) September 15, 2014"
They did, and then some.
Even Cardinals' head coach Bruce Arians could not fathom just how San Francisco blew that lead.
“It’s very hard for me to even imagine them giving a game away because that’s not something that one of Jimmy [Harbaugh's] teams ever does,” Arians said to Bay Area reporters (h/t Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area). “They’re as solid as anybody and when they get a lead, you can pretty much forget about it.”
San Francisco could not regain any of its offensive momentum in the second half. On top of that, the 49ers defense had no answer for a resurgent Bears offense. Rookie defensive back Jimmie Ward was overmatched by Chicago wideout Brandon Marshall on three touchdown receptions.
A late fourth-quarter drive could have brought the game within a two-point conversion, but Kaepernick and Michael Crabtree could not connect on San Francisco's last offensive play.
The 49ers' first loss of the season is now in the books, and it was ugly in every sense of the word.
But being thick skinned is an essential element to professional sports. San Francisco has to learn from its mistakes, focus on whatever positives there are and look to rebound against a team that could very well challenge them for a playoff berth in 2014.
Can the 49ers do this? Let's try to figure this one out.
News and Notes
2 of 5It's hard to sum up all the news and notes surrounding San Francisco in the wake of its devastating loss at home to the Chicago Bears.
Our focus can be drawn in a dozen different directions, but we'll try to focus on some of the key issues facing the 49ers moving forward.
Ray McDonald's Ongoing Arrest Saga
Defensive end Ray McDonald remains active on the team in spite of his arrest for felony domestic violence.
The 49ers' decision to let the process play itself out has drawn scrutiny from the sports world and beyond. Hall of Famer Steve Young criticized San Francisco's decision to play him as did California Lieutenant Governor and former San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome.
Head coach Jim Harbaugh responded via Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area:
"You’ve seen there’s been a lot of public speculation and people weighing in with their opinion whether it’s a public figure or people through social media. Our response would be: We have two principles at play here. One is respect for due process. And we’re not going to flinch, based on public speculation.
"
Even 49ers owner and CEO Jed York has stated that he wants to let the situation play out.
"49ers CEO Jed York: "I will not punish somebody until we see evidence that it should be done." #RayMcDonald
— T.J. Holmes (@tjholmes) September 10, 2014"
It appears as if San Francisco is sticking to its guns in spite of the controversy surrounding the decision to play McDonald.
Whatever results the legal investigation reveals will certainly add fuel to this ongoing fire of a discussion.
Arizona Cardinals Injuries
The 49ers have their fair share of injuries to contend with. We'll get to that shortly, but it should be noted that the Cardinals are also dealing with the injury bug as of late.
Chief among these is to quarterback Carson Palmer (shoulder), who is doubtful for Sunday's game per CBS Sports.
This opens the door for backup quarterback Drew Stanton to take the reins under center. Stanton has a 66.3 quarterback rating this season and has been sacked four times.
CBS Sports also notes that running back Andre Ellington (foot) is looking as if he will be able to play against San Francisco.
Reinforcements along the Offensive Line?
The 49ers' once vaunted O-line has not exactly lived up to expectations early this season.
Much of the focus has centered around offseason acquisition Jonathan Martin, who has been starting at right tackle in place of the injured Anthony Davis.
Martin allowed two key sacks of Colin Kaepernick late in the game versus Chicago, and his play has not exactly been up to par.
But Davis (hamstring) looks as if he might possibly return Sunday per the San Jose Mercury News (h/t CBS Sports), which will obviously help the overall fortitude of this beleaguered unit.
"Jim Harbaugh said #49ers are "hopeful" RT Anthony Davis (hamstring) can resume practicing this wk; he had no update on Vernon Davis (ankle).
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) September 15, 2014"
It's hard to speculate whether Davis will actually play versus Arizona, but at least him being able to practice is a good sign.
Vernon Davis Hopeful
Tight end Vernon Davis was removed from Sunday's game with an ankle injury.
Per Maiocco, Davis avoided a serious ankle injury after a MRI revealed nothing more than a deep bruise and zero structural damage.
The report states that Davis could be on the field versus Arizona on Sunday.
No. 2 tight end Vance McDonald also sustained a knee injury, so we'll have to keep an eye out on his possible return. No. 3 tight end Derek Carrier would figure to get reps if McDonald is unavailable.
Lack of the Pass Rush
Rushing the passer has been a weakness of the 49ers over their first two games of the season.
In total, San Francisco has generated just four sacks—three of which have come from veteran defensive end Justin Smith.
Clearly, the 49ers are missing the defensive prowess of linebacker Aldon Smith right now, as he serves his nine-game suspension. In his stead, San Francisco is using a combination of Corey Lemonier and Dan Skuta.
But Lemonier is off to a slow start this season. In 50 pass-rushing attempts, Lemonier has yet to register a quarterback pressure, per Pro Football Focus.
"Per @PFF, #49ers LB Corey Lemonier has yet to register a QB pressure in 50 pass rushes this season.
— Eric Branch (@Eric_Branch) September 15, 2014"
Lack of pressure allowed Bears quarterback Jay Cutler the opportunity to engineer Chicago's devastating second half comeback in Week 2.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio needs to figure out a way to address this, especially if the combination of Lemonier and Skuta is not getting the job done.
Does this mean an increase in playing time for other young players like Aaron Lynch, Quinton Dial and Tank Carradine?
Regression of Colin Kaepernick?
Anyone who watched Colin Kaepernick on Sunday Night Football could tell you just how poor the young signal-caller performed on a national stage.
Without doubt, this was one of his worst professional games, and it has led to speculation that Kaepernick is not progressing the way the 49ers had hoped when they signed him to a $126 million extension during the offseason.
"All the dirt from @daisy about the 49ers big loss, from Kaepernick to the lame "fans." http://t.co/tadfMuK7wz pic.twitter.com/BO28yKe8DA
— SFist (@SFist) September 15, 2014"
But Taylor Price of 49ers.com serves to remind us that one game is not necessarily an indication of what we should expect for the entire season. He writes:
"I’d say it’s too soon to start being concerned. Sure, nobody wants to see their starting quarterback complete three passes to the other team in a pivotal game. That’s never a good thing. But keep in mind that Kaepernick has led the 49ers to a Super Bowl and an NFC title game in back-to-back years. Add to that a solid Week 1 outing against the Dallas Cowboys and there’s a track record of good play on his side. The natural feeling for any NFL observer or fan is to go off of your last performance and Kaepernick’s passer rating of 57.0 against Chicago will leave some people with doubts. Those people aren’t in the 49ers locker room, though. The players are confident in Kap and know what he’s capable of doing on a weekly basis. San Francisco’s dual-threat quarterback is especially good against the Cardinals. Kaepernick is 3-0 with a 106.4 passer rating as a starter against the NFC West foe.
"
It could be that Kaepernick's performance against the Bears was one of those occasional "gaffes" that many young quarterbacks face during their maturation process.
If this negative trend continues then, yes, we should be worried. Until that point, Kaepernick is still one of the preeminent weapons the 49ers have on offense.
Injury Report
3 of 5
Injuries
Tramaine Brock, CB—Questionable
Vernon Davis, TE—Questionable
Vance McDonald, TE—Questionable
Anthony Davis, RT—Questionable
Carlos Hyde, RB—Probable
Justin Smith, DE—Probable
Marcus Lattimore, RB—NFI
Trey Millard, FB—NFI
Keith Reaser, CB—NFI
All injury statuses courtesy of CBS Sports and Pro-Football-Reference.com.
We've covered the injuries sustained to San Francisco's tight ends Vernon Davis and Vance McDonald.
Getting each player back on the field will obviously be a huge asset to the 49ers' chances against the Cardinals in Week 3.
While McDonald has not exactly shown up much on the stat sheet this season, his abilities as a blocker have improved vastly since last season and the 49ers figure to utilize him in a similar role moving forward.
Davis' prowess is already well known.
Anthony Davis' return to action is also up in the air. In spite of reports that the offensive lineman may resume practicing, it is unclear whether or not he'll be fully ready for game-time action at a high level reports Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.
"#49ers “hopeful" RT Anthony Davis can begin practicing. But how long before he’s able to play at a high level? http://t.co/O3pWHc3GMf
— Matt Maiocco (@MaioccoCSN) September 16, 2014"
If Davis is unable to go, Jonathan Martin should be expected to get the nod once more at right tackle.
Adding to the 49ers' injury frustrations is the toe injury sustained to cornerback Tramaine Brock in Week 1.
While Brock was able to return to the sidelines against the Dallas Cowboys, he was inactive for Week 2 against Chicago.
According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Brock is expected to miss Sunday's matchup with the Cardinals.
Cornerback Perrish Cox will likely assume Brock's duties in the secondary.
Colin Kaepernick is also listed as probable per Pro-Football-Reference.com with a back issue. But Chris Cwik of CBS Sports states the injury isn't too serious and Kaepernick should play Sunday.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
4 of 5
As stated previously, Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers have a good track record against the Arizona Cardinals in recent seasons.
But the same could be said of San Francisco's dominance over the Chicago Bears prior to last Sunday.
Still, the 49ers will look to put that ugly loss behind them and focus on the tough opponent that is Arizona.
Let's take a look at some specific matchups that will be key in determining the outcome.
49ers' Pass Rush vs. Cardinals' O-line
In 2013, Arizona's offensive line gave up a total of 41 sacks of quarterback Carson Palmer. Saying their O-line was permeable is a bit of an understatement.
The Cardinals revamped this unit during the offseason, bringing in former Oakland Raider left tackle Jared Veldheer and ex-Tampa Bay center/guard Ted Larsen.
"The search, #AzCardinals believe, is over: @Veldheer68 is LT they needed, wanted http://t.co/eSf1U61d9t #CardsCamp pic.twitter.com/kpeKny2OvK
— Darren Urban (@Cardschatter) August 5, 2014"
But the left side of the line is still vulnerable, after having watched both the San Diego Chargers and New York Giants apply plenty of pressure on Arizona QBs despite the presence of Veldheer and Larsen.
Arizona has already given up six sacks on the young season, so perhaps this provides an opportunity for Justin Smith and the 49ers pass rush to get back on track.
Additionally, it would not be surprising to see if 49er defensive coordinator Vic Fangio works in a little more Aaron Lynch, Tank Carradine and Quinton Dial into the equation if the current unit is not getting the job done.
Jimmie Ward vs. Larry Fitzgerald
The Arizona Cardinals are expected to match up 31-year-old veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald against rookie defensive back Jimmie Ward reports Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.
This is essentially what the Chicago Bears did in Week 2 with Brandon Marshall, and the results were not pretty. Ward was victimized by Marshall on three touchdown receptions from Jay Cutler.
At 5'11", Ward obviously will have size-differential problems facing off against some of the larger receivers like Marshall (6'4") and the 6'3" Fitzgerald, and we should expect the Cardinals to utilize this mismatch wherever possible.
If Ward continues to struggle at this point—like many rookie defensive backs do—the 49ers would be wise to call upon added help from safeties over the top. This was something they could not adjust to in Week 2 but will need to figure out against Fitzgerald and the Cardinals.
Michael Crabtree vs. Patrick Peterson
The matchup between San Francisco's No. 1 wideout versus the top cornerback from Arizona may not necessarily feature all the drama associated with another corner up north, but that doesn't mean this battle will be any less enticing.
The sixth-year receiver has caught four touchdown passes total in his past four games against Peterson per Taylor Price of 49ers.com. He is also averaging 91.2 yards per game over the last five matchups between the 49ers and Cardinals.
Numbers are in Crabtree's favor here, but that doesn't mean Peterson is to be taken lightly. The talented corner will look to do his best to shut down Crabtree on Sunday.
Colin Kaepernick vs. Himself
In Week 1, we were led to believe that Colin Kaepernick had made the necessary developments that would catapult him to the status of an elite quarterback.
Any notion of that was quickly shot down against the Bears.
Granted, one game is far too small a sample size to suggest any downward trend, as illustrated on the previous slide.
On an additional positive note, Kaepernick has shown the ability to bounce back after a forgettable outing. As Taylor Price of 49ers.com points out, Kaepernick has an excellent history against the Cardinals as well.
"49ers Collin Kaepernick is 3-0 vs Arizona when he starts. And when he has 100+ passer rating the 49ers are 14-0
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) September 17, 2014"
Kaepernick will have to have a short memory when it comes to putting the disastrous Sunday Night Football performance behind him. Yes, the mistakes are evident and his decision-making is far from perfect. But the potential for a bounce-back game is large considering his numbers versus Arizona.
Greg Roman vs. The Playbook
Jumping on offensive coordinator Greg Roman is probably a favorite target among 49ers fans in the wake of his more-than-questionable play-calling last Sunday.
For example, Roman called just two plays to running back Frank Gore in the fourth quarter—one rush came when the 49ers were trailing by one, the other when San Francisco was down by eight.
Abandoning the run here allowed Chicago to concentrate strictly on the 49ers passing game, and it did so effectively.
But the biggest problem came in the middle of the third quarter when San Francisco had the ball on the Bears 6-yard line. Three straight runs up the gut were stuffed by Chicago's defense, and the 49ers had to settle for a field goal, putting them up 20-7 at the time.
The plays were all too predictable and lacked creativity. Additionally, the calls prevented San Francisco from punching the ball into the end zone at a time when a touchdown would have seriously hindered any Bears comeback.
Arizona's defense is far above that of Chicago's, so Roman figures to have a much tougher challenge on his hands Sunday.
49ers' X-factor of the Week: RB Frank Gore
It's time for the 49ers to get back to basics and utilize their primary strength if they wish to establish their offensive prowess.
San Francisco is a run-first team that uses its power running game to tire out opposing defenses and win time-of-possession battles. In turn, the 49ers build their passing offense off the running game. Smartly executed play-action passes are where Colin Kaepernick fares best.
"Highest QB rating in 2013 when using play action: 1. P. Manning 136.8 2. Foles 134.9 3. Rivers 126.8 4. Kaepernick 116.4 5. Wilson 112.3
— Jeff Deeney (@PFF_Jeff) May 23, 2014"
But to do this, San Francisco will need to establish the running game behind Frank Gore and Co.
It seems that every season provides us with a stat that reads something like the 49ers are 10-0 when Gore rushes for X yards.
Sure, the 31-year-old Gore may be slowing down a bit, and his heir apparent Carlos Hyde is promising but the statistics on the season don't lie.
Gore is averaging 4.4 yards per carry on the season, but his 64.5 yards per game is the lowest average since his rookie season in 2005.
"Frank Gore averaged 4.1 and 4.8 YPC over Weeks 1-2, and had long runs of 20 and 19 yards in each game. Hasn't had more than 16 carries yet.
— Dylan DeSimone (@DeSimone_80) September 17, 2014"
We understand the need to keep Gore fresh for the duration of the season, but the veteran Pro Bowler is still an essential part to generating the offensive push San Francisco needs.
Arizona's run defense is still elite—currently ranked No. 3 in the NFL with 133 yards against—but they are without run-stuffing D-lineman Darnell Dockett for the year.
Kyle Odegard of AZCardinals.com (h/t Taylor Price of 49ers.com) reports that the Cardinals are using a committee of defensive linemen to make up for Dockett's absence, but this still presents an opportunity for Gore to do some damage.
But whether or not he gets the opportunity is entirely in the hands of San Francisco's coaching staff.
Prediction
5 of 5
This author doubts that anyone could have easily predicted the Bears' upset over the 49ers in Week 2. Essentially, the 49ers looked as if they were doing everything they possibly could have done to lose that game in the second half.
That absolutely cannot repeat itself in Week 3 versus a tough Cardinals team that is riding a two-win start to the 2014 season.
So should we expect Jim Harbaugh's 49ers to bounce back? Absolutely.
Here's how it will happen.
First, if San Francisco gets a lead, it will need to maintain a killer instinct—something the team lacked against Chicago. The 49ers cannot go into this matchup with a "let's not lose" attitude. Rather they need to convince themselves that they will win this game no matter what it takes.
This means sharpening things up on all fronts. The costly penalties need to stop. Pass protection and run blocking needs to improve. The pass rush needs to take effect...like now.
On top of that, San Francisco needs to play smarter, tougher and with better execution than its counterpart.
Forget the win-loss records, the 49ers are perfectly fitted to defeat the Cardinals. Sure, Arizona is a tough, tough opponent, and beating the Cardinals on the road is quite the challenge. But San Francisco is capable of doing this. Recent history suggests it.
Let's assume the 49ers get back to what has made them a successful, prominent team since Jim Harbaugh took over in 2011. Running the ball, tiring out defenses and eating up the clock will be primary factors. Playing off the running game should open up opportunities for Colin Kaepernick and his crop of receiving targets.
On defense, coordinator Vic Fangio needs to figure out some way to get his pass-rushers to make plays. If Corey Lemonier isn't doing the job, someone else needs to step up. Is Aaron Lynch the guy? Perhaps.
Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton will likely get the start in place of the injured Carson Palmer. The perennial backup should not inspire a ton of fear in San Francisco's defense, but weapons like Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald are enough to cause concern.
The combination of an effective pass rush and a commendable effort from the secondary can limit the damage of Arizona's downfield passing attack.
On top of that, the 49ers will look to retain their effectiveness against Andre Ellington and the Cardinals running game. Forcing Arizona to become one dimensional is also an X-factor to watch.
Then, of course, there are the turnovers. Turnovers can be killers in any game regardless of the team one is playing. Kaepernick may be a little more conservative in his decisions after what happened in Week 2, but that doesn't mean he won't make plays.
Smarter decisions, combined with proper play-calling, could prove to be the difference in this aspect.
Given both teams' reliance on defensive prowess, we should not expect a high-scoring game. A few key moments could prove the difference between victory and defeat. Still, let's look for the 49ers to bounce back on a positive note against a tough Cardinals opponent that is seeking prominence in the NFC West.
Prediction: 49ers 17, Cardinals 13
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.
Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers' news, insight and analysis.
Follow him @PeterMcShots on Twitter.
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