Bold Predictions for Derrick Rose's 2014-15 Season
The Chicago Bulls phenom has played just 10 games over the past two NBA seasons, and his rust showed through the FIBA World Cup tournament, where he finished with paltry averages: 4.8 points per game, 3.1 assists, 5.3 percent from three and 25.4 shooting overall.
But such anemia could’ve been expected. Derrick Rose’s game is unique, and finding his footing again will take time. His singular touch near the rim doesn’t come easy—the shots he’s wowed us with in the past were acts of extreme subtlety, relying on complex use of the backboard and sudden releases at breakneck speed.
The good news is that Rose’s athleticism is still intact. He’s still fast, graceful and powerful enough to make the rest of the league watch him in awe and from a distance. You can’t teach ability like Rose’s; it’s a gift.
In time, he should be able to leverage his supreme talent into more MVP-worthy performances. But Rose’s 2014-15 season may be a little ugly in the beginning, with his numbers suffering all year as a result.
Let’s take a look at some predictions for Rose’s return campaign.
Rose Will Have a Sub-20.0 PER
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In Rose’s two best seasons, 2010-11 and 2011-12, his player efficiency ratings were 23.5 and 23.0 respectively. He was a devastating offensive player, and it showed on the stat sheet.
But when he returned for a 10-game stint before tearing his meniscus against the Portland Trail Blazers last year, he put up a tiny, alarming PER figure: 9.7.
Rose was sloppy, confused and not himself during that time. He was rushing his game and not making shots he made at his peak. The last two sentences could also be used to describe Rose at FIBA, of course. And I suspect they will come to describe his performance through at least the first month of 2014-15. This will take time. From Grantland’s Kirk Goldsberry:
"Rose is tough to analyze — there are a lot of moving parts, some of which are stylistic, some of which are orthopedic. The injuries have been devastating, to be sure, but they’ve also obscured two years of data in his prime developmental period. As a result, it’s very difficult to characterize the state of his game right now or predict its trajectory. While the FIBA World Cup was wonderful, in the sense that Rose played nine games in 19 days without getting hurt, it’s fair to say he was not at his best in Spain. He is obviously rusty, and jumpers are generally the last things to come back.
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Rose is going to be so inefficient at season’s beginning that he’ll never be able to recoup statistically. Expect skeptics to point at his sunken numbers even if he regains form more than completely in the winter, playing better than he ever has.
Rose Will Take Fewer Than 15 Shots Per Game
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The Bulls have never put this much good offense around their prized point guard. With the additions of Doug McDermott, Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Aaron Brooks alone, he has more natural scorers at his disposal than ever before.
But Rose will also be playing with new versions of Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Noah was frequently the offense’s focal point in 2013-14, and Gibson was the Bulls’ go-to option in their first-round playoff loss to the Washington Wizards. Neither Gibson nor Noah could create at their current levels when Rose last played with them. Both were disproportionately defensive-minded, hustle-first players.
And considering Rose’s often deferential approach with Team USA, it shouldn't come as a surprise if Rose is taking fewer shots than he ever has with the Bulls. His previous career low was 14.9 per game—as a rookie. Don’t be shocked to see him close to if not lower than that figure this year.
Rose Will Sit for 15 to 20 Games
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Rose and the Bulls haven’t rushed playing time. To the frustration of many fans, Rose has been reticent to return too soon in both of the last two seasons, often allowing conspiratorial speculation to run amok about him.
It was bad PR for both Rose and the team, but no one ultimately cared too much about that. Since he tore his ACL in 2012, the former MVP’s health has always been priority No. 1. This even in spite of coach Tom Thibodeau's reputation as someone who runs his players into the floor. Thibodeau was a Team USA assistant and extremely supportive of any rest Rose took throughout the World Cup tourney.
"If he needs rest, we're gonna give him rest," Thibodeau said during FIBA, via ESPN.com's Marc Stein. "It's gonna be a process for him coming back. There's gonna be some days where he has some soreness. And when he has some soreness, we're gonna be smart."
Expect that sentiment to remain true through 2014-15 and for the Bulls to have a quick trigger on the DNPs when even a slight Rose injury occurs. His played-games total should be closer to 60 than 82.
Rose Will Average More Assists Than Ever
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Rose's newly potent scoring mates don't just mean he'll be taking fewer shots. There will also be more opportunities to populate the box score by dishing.
His previous high for assists is 7.7 per game, a figure tallied during 2010-11, his MVP season. There's reason to believe Rose can collect up to 10 dimes a game this year. With the Bulls' best shooting entourage in many years and the keen sense of floor geometry Rose displayed playing in Spain, fans can expect him to be more of a general than ever before.
Rose Will Enter the MVP Conversation
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There’s almost no way Derrick Rose can win a second MVP award this year. LeBron James and Kevin Durant, among others, are simply too good and in too much of continuous grooves. Rose’s time off has been too expansive for him to play at their level for a whole NBA season.
But Rose can regain form and once again be one of the most impactful players in the league by February’s All-Star break.
And as the Bulls are likely to be one of the top teams in the league with Rose facing off against and often besting the league’s elite, it’ll be hard to keep his name out of this conversation. It might just be out of hope and habit, but the basketball world will be relieved to bring Rose back to this level.
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