Chiefs vs. Dolphins: Breaking Down Miami's Game Plan
Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL season, where the Miami Dolphins host the Kansas City Chiefs as they seek to gain their second victory. The comfortable confines of Sun Life Stadium should be welcomed by Dolphins’ players, as the team’s first road trip was a mistake-filled loss in Buffalo.
With two weeks in the books, the Chiefs have greatly disappointed, going 0-2 and having a scoring margin of -23. Preseason power rankings had the Chiefs as high as 15th in the league, but a bad loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 1 and a closer-than-expected loss to the Denver Broncos has them sitting 27th in ESPN’s latest rankings.
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The Chiefs’ poor start can be chalked up to many factors, which means as a team, they’re struggling dearly to replicate their successful recipe in 2013. It’s impossible to name one single factor for their early demise.
Miami must rebound from its own disappointing loss against the Bills. Fortunately, this game can greatly increase the team’s confidence and show how much grit exists on the coaching staff and roster.
Rebounding from a lackluster performance with a well-executed game plan is key for this Dolphins organization as they seek their first playoff appearance since the 2007 season.
After reviewing the film of the Chiefs’ first two games and studying Miami’s offensive and defensive identities, it’s time to compile a game plan that exploits Kansas City’s weaknesses and plays to Miami’s strengths.
At the end, don’t forget to leave your thoughts and score prediction in the comments section.
Win the Trench Battle
The biggest advantage the Dolphins have this game is their defensive line against the Chiefs’ offensive line. Miami possesses one of the deepest and most talented defensive fronts in the entire league, boasting an impressive six-man rotation.
Starting defensive ends Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon have combined for three sacks and six quarterback pressures through two games, and each have been solid as run defenders as well, notching seven run stops.
As good as the outside pressure has been for Miami, the defensive tackle rotation has been downright intimidating.
Jared Odrick again is leading the Dolphins’ tackles in snaps this season—logging 43 more than the next man—and his effectiveness is as good as ever. His ability to win inside with speed and still hold up on run plays gives him great value to the defense. Next to him, we will see Earl Mitchell and Randy Starks rotate snaps.
Mitchell has been a home run signing by the Dolphins from this past offseason, as he is currently the No. 1 ranked defensive tackle in the league, with a positive 7.7 grade from Pro Football Focus.
The film on Mitchell is equally impressive, as he’s often penetrating offensive lines within a mere second of the snap. He’s totaled eight tackles, stopping seven runs and hurrying the quarterback four times.
Across from the fearsome Dolphins’ line is a depleted and underwhelming offensive line for the Chiefs.
Left tackle Eric Fisher, the 2013 No. 1 overall pick, has been horrible thus far in his short career. Despite measuring as a terrific athlete in the draft process, Fisher struggles dearly with speed rushers. He gets desperate to make contact, so he bends at the waist and compromises his balance, which also opens him up to counter power moves.
Facing Olivier Vernon Sunday will be a difficult matchup because Vernon is a tremendous speed rusher who has improved his strength.
Opposite of Fisher on the right side is Ryan Harris, who has allowed two sacks and three hurries already this season. Harris faces Cam Wake, who we will talk more about later.
The Chiefs will likely use tight end Anthony Fasano on the right side to help double team Wake, which is similar to how Buffalo slowed him down. Nevertheless, Miami will need to take advantage of the two-on-one situations because that will free up another defender to make an impact play.
On the interior, the Chiefs’ starting guards have combined for a PFF grade of -9.0, with journeyman left guard Mike McGlynn accounting for -5.5 of that grade.
McGlynn was worked by Tennessee Titans’ tackle Jurrell Casey in Week 1, and it’s hard to imagine that Starks and Odrick won’t do the same. Each have significant quickness advantages on McGlynn, and the interior pressure is key to Miami’s success.
On the other side of the ball, Miami is looking to get their offense back on track. Week 2’s game plan from the offensive coordinator was too pass-heavy, and the offense couldn’t crack the Bills’ defense because of the predictability and poor execution.
"More Dolphins injuries: Am told Shelley Smith has Grad 2 knee sprain. Initial timetable given is that he's expected to miss 2 to 4 weeks.
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) September 15, 2014"
For the Dolphins’ offense to become more effective, the interior offensive line must play better. They allowed three sacks against Buffalo and an additional four pressures. Getting beat as the ball is snapped to Ryan Tannehill simply isn’t acceptable, and it must be improved this week. Dallas Thomas entered the game at left guard after Shelley Smith’s injury, so it is more likely that Thomas will get the start in Week 3.
Luckily for Miami, the Kansas City defensive front that produced 47 snaps in 2013 is largely depleted. Nose tackle Dontari Poe and outside linebacker Justin Houston are two tremendous players, but the Chiefs haven’t gotten much out of anyone else this season. With the excellent play by Miami’s tackles Branden Albert and Ju’Wuan James so far this season, the Dolphins should be able to negate most of the outside pressure from the Chiefs’ blitzes.
Don’t Allow Knile Davis & Travis Kelce to Break Out
"Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry will not practice today, but De'Anthony Thomas will. #Chiefs
— BJ Kissel (@ChiefsReporter) September 17, 2014"
The Chiefs’ offense is mundane with Alex Smith at quarterback. But when the defense doesn’t account for Kansas City's playmakers, it can be a long day.
It’s not clear yet whether All-Pro running back Jamaal Charles will be able to play in Week 3, but if he does, expect his high ankle sprain to limit his touches. That means second-year running back Knile Davis will start in his place.
No one should confuse Davis for Charles, as fumbling issues have plagued Davis since his collegiate days at Arkansas, and his career yards per carry rate is 2.1 yards lower. But Davis will be getting a high volume of carries, as evidenced by his 28 combined carries and receptions in Week 2.
When the Chiefs are able to effectively run the ball in power formations, their two tight ends become pass-receiving threats off play action. Smith has attempted the eighth-most passes off play-action fakes, but his passer rating is just 66.9, which is 26th in the league.
The outside receivers shouldn’t be able to create much against the Dolphins’ secondary if Miami works to take away intermediate crosses and comebacks.
Miami can accomplish this by dropping their linebackers between seven and 15 yards on passing plays. They must execute better than they did in Week 2, when Sammy Watkins was able to burn the Dolphins’ secondary four times on crossing routes.
Former Dolphins’ tight end Anthony Fasano is a possession receiver that is a third-down threat, but should be a minor threat compared to second-year tight end Travis Kelce.
Possessing terrific size at 6’5”, 260-pounds, and an impressive 4.60 40-yard dash time, Kelce is a mismatch for any linebacker or safety. His 130 receiving yards is the ninth-most among tight ends in the NFL this season, and Miami’s struggled to cover tight ends when Philip Wheeler is in the lineup.
Miami will have to account for Kelce every snap and should keep linebacker Jelani Jenkins close to him. Kelce is able to line up inline or in the slot and will be too big for any defensive back the Dolphins play with regularity. Jenkins’ pass coverage grade of 2.3 is second best in the NFL, according to PFF, and the tape backs that grade.
Jenkins has been excellent for Miami, diagnosing plays and making run stops in the box, or flexing out and following receivers. His ability to process run plays was a major concern coming out of Florida, but he has shown great progress as a second-year player.
Let the Stars Shine
When reviewing how Miami utilized their defensive stars against the Buffalo Bills, it was disappointing that defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle bottled their talents.
Pro Bowl cornerback Brent Grimes was stuck in a Cover 3 defense for most of the game, which allowed Sammy Watkins to get away from his side of the field. That decision cost Miami too many chunk plays because Bills’ quarterback EJ Manuel was able to play pitch and catch with Watkins.
This week, Miami needs to shut down Chiefs’ receiver Dwayne Bowe with Grimes, and let Grimes protect against the intermediate routes that Alex Smith is limited to. If Grimes can jump a comeback route, he’s proven he’s terrific at catching interceptions. Coyle must let Grimes be the playmaker he is.
All-Pro Cameron Wake also must be unleashed. Bills’ rookie right tackle Seantrel Henderson deserves credit for his play against Wake, but Wake was often double-teamed or forced to set the edge in the run game, so his impact was limited.
The Chiefs will also run the ball plenty, but Wake must be disruptive and cause Alex Smith to dump the ball off before he scrambles for big runs.
On offense, Charles Clay has been targeted 13 times but only has 58 yards on the season. His health, after offseason knee surgery, might not be at 100 percent yet, but Miami has to get him the ball in space. Even if Chiefs’ safety Eric Berry is playing, Clay must be targeted often. The Denver Broncos have tremendous success getting the ball to their tight end, Julius Thomas, in space and allowing him to cause havoc in the red zone.
"Coach Reid said Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry have sprained ankles.
— Rachel Santschi (@KCChiefs_Rachel) September 14, 2014"
Lull Them to Sleep…
For the Dolphins’ offense to be effective once again, the running game must be resurrected. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor didn’t commit to the run after Knowshon Moreno injured his elbow early in the first quarter against the Bills, but there’s no excuse for panicking and having a pass-to-run ratio of 20-to-four as the first half is ending.
The blueprint to run effectively on the Chiefs was laid by the Titans and Broncos in the first two weeks of the season, when each team’s running backs combined to average 4.2 and 5.35 yards per carry, respectively.
Even with rookie running backs Damien Williams and Orleans Darkwa having to step up to help starter Lamar Miller more than before Moreno’s injury, Miami must utilize the cutback lanes created by the offensive line. The vision of the young tailbacks will be tested without Moreno to save the day.
Kansas City’s cornerbacks are also vulnerable to comeback routes, and Peyton Manning was able to connect with his receivers with ease throughout their matchup in Week 2 because the cornerbacks gave too much space in single coverage.
Dolphins’ receiver Mike Wallace has been productive on curl routes so far this season with his tremendous speed and quickness. Those routes will be even more effective with his deep-play ability.
…Then (Finally) Hit the Big Play
By running the ball effectively, Miami will open their offensive options to exploit the weak Chiefs’ secondary. Kansas City’s secondary has played so poorly that PFF doesn’t have one member with a positive grade.
And after watching how the Titans’ Justin Hunter and Broncos’ Emmanuel Sanders carved them for 171 combined yards, Miami must take advantage.
The Dolphins’ receiving group is mediocre at best, considering the unit’s seven drops through two games, according to PFF. That’s just the official number, which didn’t include this gem below (Wallace hasn’t been credited with a drop yet by PFF).
As seen in the Broncos’ game, the Chiefs are susceptible to speed down the field and biting on play action. On the first play of the game, Emmanuel Sanders blew by coverage and caught a 48-yard pass from Manning. The play design was excellent, as the tight end ran a dig route to draw the safety up, and Manning bought time by faking a handoff.
For the Dolphins’ offense to relax and hit their stride, a deep ball is necessary this game. The Chiefs present a great opportunity to execute a Tannehill-to-Wallace bomb. Although it might not be the key or main purpose of the game, it should be on the to-do list in Week 3.
Unlike Miami’s last game, the Chiefs play perfectly into the Dolphins’ strengths. Miami should be able to stuff the run effectively if Jamaal Charles is out, and then prey on Alex Smith’s limited arm. On offense, Miami must be physical and establish the run, then take advantage of the porous secondary.
This is a winnable game for the Dolphins, and the team needs to show mental toughness and resilience to adversity to win against the Chiefs. All eyes will be peeled to see how the team responds in Week 3.
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required) or sports-reference.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac.com.
Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting, and analyst for FinDepth.
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